Posts Tagged ‘stock’

Dollar up, gold down; why?

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

The U.S. Dollar Index closed last Friday at 84.25. For the ninth consecutive week, the Dollar Index has finished higher than the quote from the end of the previous week. This is the longest string of consecutive weekly increases since the first quarter of 1997.

The U.S. dollar reached its highest level in six years against the Japanese yen.

This is the highest the index has been over the past couple of years except for two days in May 2013.

In reaction, the price of gold fell to a multi-month low and silver dropped to its lowest levels since May 2010.

There are several reasons why the dollar is temporarily strong. The economies across Europe are proving to be weaker than the politicians were pretending, which had encouraged some investors to abandon the euro and replace it with the dollar. The military actions and economic sanctions involving the Ukraine and Russia are also putting more pressure on Europe than the United States. American politicians are still talking about the economic news in the United States being positive rather than negative as several reports (a horrible jobs report for August, mortgage applications are declining precipitously, the percentage of home sales being settled for cash is dropping sharply, a growing number of people qualifying for food stamps, the Federal Reserve’s continuing inflation of the money supply at far higher levels than it is admitting, and so forth) are indicating. This is quieting potential clamor from the public as we enter the final few weeks before elections.

However, behind the scenes, various regulatory changes are coming that are all likely to hurt American financial markets.  As they impact the value of other kinds of assets, there will be fallout for the values of gold and silver.

On Aug. 28, the CME Group, which owns the COMEX, NYMEX, GLOBEX and other commodity and financial exchanges in New York and the Chicago Board of Trade and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago, announced a change to its Rule 575, which became effective Sept. 15.

– See more at:

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Gold Trends Analysis

Tuesday, December 24th, 2013

Gold Medium Term and Resistance Line
Long Term Trend ~ Neutral since 4/12/13 @ 1501 ~ Moving averages 1560 – 1561
Medium Term Trend ~ Bearish since 4/5/13 @ 1575 ~ Moving averages 1321 – 1370

From a medium term perspective, as long as price is below the UPPER RED LINE near and below the moving averages, the overall medium term trend is still down. We need a close above the moving averages in order to neutralize the downtrend and take it out of bearish mode. The moving averages have now come down to 1321-1370 as we enter this week.

The potential for the year end to be another low cycle has not been eliminated.   We’ve got to get above the averages and the red line in order to become more favorable towards the medium term.  Last week we lost the 1220-1222 area and came within 8 dollars of our target (1180) if broken.

If you look at the end of 2008 you see that the green channel line was broken right at the crash low.

If the lines do break the June lows on the downside the next support is the dotted line near 1100 and then the 1000-1040 area where the white line crosses.   The key for gold is for price to get back above 1370 on a weekly basis for the medium term trend to get out of this bearish mode.  Support is getting thin as we’re at the weekly trend lines.  The June lows can still be taken out if those lines give way but there is a weekly support at 1172 on a Friday close basis that would be the next point to watch for support before the line near 1000 on the chart comes into play.

Gold Trends Analysis

Gold Trends Analysis

Ext :

The Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Monday, December 16th, 2013

The Australian Gold Nugget is a popular series of Gold bullion coins issued by the Perth Mint. They
have legal tender status in Australia and are one of the few legal tender bullion coins to change
their design every year, the most notable other being the Chinese Panda.


Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Australia issued its first Gold Nugget coins in 1986. From 1986 to 1988, the reverse of  these coins featured images of various Australian Gold nuggets, hence the name. From 1989, the design changed to feature different Kangaroos, a more world-recognised symbol of Australia. The coins are sometimes referred to as Kangaroos but the name

Nugget seems to have stuck. The coins up to 1 Toz change design each year. Each year, a Proof edition is issued and that design becomes the bullion coin design for the following year.

The coins have a unique market niche for two reasons; a “two-tone” frosted design effect and individual hard plastic encapsulation of each coin. Provided they remain as they came from the mint, the quality is maintained and thus premium.

The initial sizes offered were 1/20 Toz, 1/10 Toz, 1/4 Toz, 1/2 Toz and 1 Toz. In 1991, the 2 Toz, 10 Toz and 1 Kg sizes were added. These were created with the intention of using economies of scale to keep premiums low. The face values of the two larger coins were lowered in 1992 in order to bring them more in line with the smaller sizes.

In October 2011, the Perth Mint created a one tonne Gold coin to break the record for the biggest and most valuable, previously held by the Royal Canadian Mint. It is approximately 80 cms diameter and 12 cms thick. The face value is A$1 million but at the time of minting, the Gold price made it worth over A$53 million.

As mentioned, the reverse of the coin features in the early years a Gold nugget and thereafter a Kangaroo. It states the year of the coin, the weight and Gold fineness.

There is also a mintmark ‘P’ which signifies the Perth Mint.

The obverse features a profile view of Queen Elizabeth II designed by Ian Rank-Broadley. The portrait is surrounded by her name, the denomination of the coin and the word AUSTRALIA.

The Australian Gold Nugget coins should not be mistaken for the Australian Lunar Gold Bullion coins. Both coins are minted by Perth Mint and have 999.9‰ fineness but Lunar coins use different animals from the Chinese calendar instead of the Kangaroo.

Investment Advice

There are various grading systems in use around the world. However, the British system is as follows:

All Nugget coins are issued as pure Gold finewness, 999.9‰ and in theory have a low premium just above the value of the Gold.

However, their intrinsic beauty makes them very collectable and they attract good premiums.

As with any coin, the best quality grades will attract the best premiums. The three early years in particular will be those with the highest premium. Although the coins

were issued in Proof form, many were unpacked and have thus been damaged and are at lower gradings. The mintage figures for all sizes of Nuggets are in general quite low, thus every coin will have numismatic premium value also. All round, the Nugget is both a collectable and investable product.


Tax Free Savings

Wednesday, December 11th, 2013

A Tax Free Savings Account in physical gold that you own

UK Taxpayers have a unique opportunity to save in pure gold, a real tangible asset, without paying VAT or Capital Gains Tax. Start from just 1 gram a month.

Gold Britannia and Sovereign investment quality coins offer a unique advantage to investors because they offer between 18% -28% additional benefits over other investments. Why? … because they are completely exempt from Capital Gains Tax. Furthermore, they are exempt from VAT.

Britannia 1 ounce_averse

Britannia 1 ounce averse

Gold Britannia 1 ounce coin

Britannia 1 ounce obverse

Britannia 1 ounce obverse

A beautifully struck gold bullion coin that has UK legal tender status and a face value of £100 – although its actual value is many times greater. The Gold Britannia coin was originally alloyed with Copper, but from 1990 the decision was made to alloy with Silver. This is why the earlier Gold Britannia’s have the deep Gold colour, as opposed to the lighter yellow gold colour of the Britannia since 1990. The latest 2013 coins have no alloy and are pure gold and 999.9°/oo fineness.

Sovereign Elizabeth II_averse

Sovereign Elizabeth II averse

British Gold Sovereign coin

Sovereign Elizabeth II obverse

Sovereign Elizabeth II obverse

The full British Sovereign is one of the most recognised gold coins in the world, with UK legal tender status and it can attract a healthy premium as it is always in demand, at home and abroad. Their legendary reputation comes from their use in a pilot’s survival kit by many air forces, being sewn into their jackets and used to negotiate their safe passage home if downed during a mission. The attraction was the integrity of their British origin which provided the utmost trust to their owners.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

Coins which are legal tender in the UK are exempt from CGT. The Britannia and Sovereign investment coins fall into this category. The UK Customs authority has issued a notice to accountants and financial advisors numbered CG12602 which deals with exemptions and in particular currency in sterling. It refers to:
– TCGA92/S21 (1)(b) which states “Currency in sterling is not an asset for capital gains purposes”. >Learn more
– Further notice from HMRC is given in CG78308 which states “Sovereigns minted in 1837 and later years and Britannia Gold coins are currency but, like all sterling currency, are exempt because of TCGA92/S21 (1)(b) >Learn more Value Added Tax (VAT)
Coins which are of investment quality do not attract VAT. Investment quality is defined as coins which contain a minimum of 900 one thousandths Gold. (900.000 ‰). Rather than being a specifically British rule, it is in fact from the European Union. See notice number 2011/C 351/07. The notice refers to all coins from various countries which would fulfill the investment quality criteria. >Learn more

Confidence in physical gold

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

According to and also confirmed on, the Shanghai Stock Exchange would have delivered more gold than Fort Knox in the States. Needless to say the strong impact that would have on the gold price in the forthcoming future.
Some people even expect tapering to happen again or at least at some point.

Shanghai stock exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange

The dollar is being printed on such a large scale that it leads to a complete devaluation of the US currency. That may be a satisfaction to the American to have more bank notes printed out but on the other side this does not help other countries like China who is presently sitting with some $3.7 trillion of foreign exchange reserves – other countries are actually in a pretty similar case with lesser quantities but still the concern remains …

Kingworldnews visited the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2009 and said that they had delivered some 8655 tons of gold since 2009. The Chinese bought something like 1.700 tons of gold in the first eight months of this year. It means that gold is actually feeding the Chinese’ foreign exchange reserves. We know that the renminbi is already the second largest currency used in global trade … How long before the dollar becomes fully obsolete ?

Let’s have a closer look at the dollar :

Well, one should be scared when looking at that 14 year perspective published on

a 14 year perspective for the de-dollarization

a 14 year perspective for the de-dollarization

In our article published on Nov 19th 2013 – China remains the world’s largest gold consumer in Q3’13 – we were actually talking about the lack of confidence in the global financial market and systems altogether. As Jim Sinclair was saying ‘Credibility speaks to Confidence and Confidence speaks to Gold’.

Soon we may have part of our savings confiscated. How trustworthy are the banks? 

Investing in physical gold has never been so important. Making it affordable to everybody is our main concern and feasible thanks to our LSP.

For further information with regards to the confiscation in the USA, please read our article The Great Confiscation : Gold ownership was illegal in the USA from 1933 to 1975.

The Panda 1 ounce

Wednesday, December 4th, 2013

The Chinese Gold Panda is a popular series of Gold bullion coins issued by the People’s Republic
of China in Proof-like, brilliant uncirculated quality. They are issued in a range of sizes between
1/20 Oz and 1 Oz with larger 2 and 5 Oz coins being additionally issued in some years.

panda 1 onceChina issued its first Gold coins bearing the Panda design in 1982. These were limited
to sizes of 1/10 Troy ounce along with 1/4 Toz, 1/2 Toz and 1 Toz. From 1983, the 1/20 Toz size was added and additionally a 2 Toz and 5 Toz coin is sometimes issued.
These strikingly beautiful coins are always issued in Proof-like brilliant uncirculated quality and prove very popular.
A different design was issued each year until the 2000. When the 2001 edition was announced, so too was a freeze of the design and thus the 2002 Panda is identical to the 2001. Collectors spoke up on behalf of the annual change and China responded by reversing their policy so that from 2003 onwards, the designs again change each year.
However, on the reverse side, it always features the endangered Giant Panda. It also features the size, Gold fi newness and monetary value.
The main design on the obverse of the coin has hardly changed, save for minor detail changes in the image. It features Beijing’s famous Temple of Heaven (Tien Tien) in the centre with Chinese characters on the top saying “Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo” meaning People’s Republic of China and at

the bottom the year of issue. If it is a commerative issue, the theme will also be marked here.
There was an adjustment of the face values of the coins in 2000/2001 – please see
the table overleaf for details.
The Chinese mints usually do not employ mintmarks. In certain years, there have
been minor variations in items like the size of the date, the style of the temple and
so on. These allow the numismatist to identify the originating mint. In some years,
but not all, other marks and Proof marks (signifi ed by a ‘P’) have been added. The
four mints involved in the production of the Panda are Beijing, Shanghai, Shengyang
and Shenzhen.

Investment Advice


All Panda coins are issued as pure Gold fineness, 999.9‰ and in theory have a low premium just above the value of the Gold.
However, their intrinsic beauty makes them very collectable and they attract good premiums.
As with any coin, the best quality grades will attract the best premiums. The early years in particular will be those with the highest premium. Although the coins were issued in Proof form, many were unpacked and have thus been damaged and are at lower gradings. The mintage figures should be carefully examined – the number originally minted is quoted but it has been found that production continues for various years, hence the total mintage may be quite a bit higher some years after.




All investment coins sold by

are EF quality or above.

For further information: +44 (0)203 318 5612

The British Sovereign

Friday, November 29th, 2013

The Gold Sovereign is a highly collectable investment coin first introduced in Great Britain in 1489 at the request of King Henry VII. In 1816, there was a major reform of coins in Great Britain which resulted in The Coin Act. This laid down in law, amongst other things, the specifi cations and dimensions of Gold Sovereigns produced from 1817 onwards which have remained in place to this day. The Sovereign weighs 7.99g and is 22 carat Gold (or 916.667‰ fineness).



The first Gold Sovereign was struck in 1489 for King Henry VII. Sovereigns continued to be issued by monarchs up until the end of the reign of Elizabeth I in 1603. As part of the coin reform of 1816/1817, the Sovereign was re-introduced. A young Italian engraver, Benedetto Pistrucci, was appointed to create the reverse design coming up with the beautiful image of St George slaying the dragon. This design saw many alterations over the years but is essentially the same. As a testament to the design, it still appears on the very latest 2013 edition. Other reverse designs have at times been used during the reigns of William IV, Victoria, George IV and Elizabeth II. The obverse of the Sovereign followed the trend established by the original and portrays an image of the reigning monarch, which remains the case up to the present.

Gold Sovereigns were withdrawn from circulation at the start of World War I in 1914 although production continued at the Royal Mint until 1917. They continued to be produced at other mints of the then British Empire but at lower quantities than before. Sovereigns which were not produced at the Royal Mint carry a mintmark showing their provenance, hence one finds coins referred to as Australian Sovereigns or South African Sovereigns. This “foreign” production stopped in 1932.

In 1957, the Royal Mint began again producing Sovereigns in order to meet world demand and to stop the booming counterfeit production which had become rife since the Royal Mint stopped producing in 1917. They were not however reintroduced into everyday circulation. Prior to 1979 only Gold bullion coins had been issued and it was this year that the fi rst Gold proof Sovereigns were issued. Between 1983 and 1999 the Royal Mint ceased producing Gold bullion Sovereigns and only minted proof Sovereigns. Gold bullion Sovereigns were re-introduced in 2000. There are several special designs but essentially, the George & Dragon design remains with the wheel turning full circle where Pistrucci’s design (which was on the Sovereign when the current monarch was crowned) has been re-introduced for the 2013 edition to mark the 60 years reign of Elizabeth II.

Investment Advice

There are various grading systems in use around the world. However, the British system is as follows :


Whilst older Sovereigns were produced in much larger quantities than those produced today, it is much more diffi cult to source a good quality Sovereign from those times. Sovereigns from the reigns of George III, George IV and William IV are extremely rare in good quality and thus command high premiums. EF quality can be found but are still quite rare. For example, a UNC George IV Sovereign from 1825 made £14,950 at a sale in March 2004! Early Victorian shield Sovereigns are highly sought and therefore an EF quality coin would fetch a high premium. Indeed anything UNC or FDC from the reign of Victoria is a high premium coin.

Edward VII and George V are fairly easy to obtain in EF quality as they were produced in very large numbers. As with Victoria Sovereigns, any UNC or FDC coins would attract a high premium.

The majority of coins on the market is from the reign of Elizabeth II and has lower premiums than earlier editions. However, the quality again affects the premium and the investor should look for the highest grades. Any coin will always fetch a higher premium anyway than the price of Gold and can only become more sought after in the future. There follows a list of certain rare Sovereigns to seek out if possible – finding one of these will command an excellent premium:


– 1817, the first year of the modern Sovereign

– 1838, the first Victoria Sovereign

– 1841, the rarest Victoria Sovereign

– 1917, London-minted Sovereigns, not Australian or South African

– 1989, 500th anniversary of the Sovereign edition

– Anything from George II, George III and William IV – FDC, UNC and even EF grades



Detailed reading:’s-most-sought-after-gold-coin/4103/All investment coins sold by are EF quality or above.

For further information:   +44 (0)203 318 5612     or email :

When gold compensates for stock market losses…

Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

… It acts out its role as a hedge perfectly. It is exactly what the example of this investor illustrates, someone who, fortunately for him, had not put all his eggs in the same basket.

Didier L. bought gold coins, quite simply when the opportunity presented itself, at the beginning of 2011. The ongoing talk of the crisis, the instability of stock markets and gold as a safe haven helped him to decide to take the initiative by investing part of his assets in physical gold, in the form of gold coins. “I just simply asked one question about gold on the internet which led me to the blog articles on and then subsequently to the websites and . One thing lead to another and I found myself on a platform for selling and buying gold coins with which I was able to invest my available funds”.

The profile of the investor fell more within a long term investment.”Basically, I thought about hoarding money by buying full and half-size Napoleon gold coins, with the intention of reselling my gold coins at a good profit, before selling at a fixed date, so as to not pay capital gains tax” (which is 31% in France – editor’s note)

Weary, stock market shares in which he had invested part of his capital have seen a high depreciation this summer. The shares in his portfolio have all dropped. Fortunately, by selling his gold coins, our saver was able to quickly withdraw the cash he needed to compensate for this depreciation.

His gold coins were sold like hot cakes

Gold thus fulfilled its role as hedge and Didier L. was even able obtain a substantial profit by selling his gold coins. In the end, even if he did not lose money, his one small regret is that he knows that he could have made more if he had not been forced to sell his coins earlier than intended.

He was able to sell his gold coins at the quotation price which meant they went very quickly and the money immediately found itself in his current account. “I was surprised by the speed and the ease of execution of the process. It would never have been the case with a traditional bank, this speed favours trade and cash flow, it is therefore interesting. And it would have been just as quick with much bigger amounts.”

It is the right time to buy!

The worst, he says, is that the balance of the CAC 40 companies (in which he had some shares) is currently excellent but markets that are nervous, over-cautious, fearing the sovereign crisis in the euro zone tend to undermine companies that are doing well and which are more than viable by creating harmful doubt in their price. “But the shares that are currently at their lowest can only go up”.

In spite of the heavy loss that he has suffered to his share portfolio, our investor advises those who have the cash to buy shares in the CAC 40 and in companies whose economic growth prospects are certain, such as ErDF (a utility company) and those in the sector of sustainable development. Cautious but strengthened by experience and conscious of the progression which the price of gold will continue to achieve, he tells us in confidence “now or never is the time to buy gold to secure one’s savings!”. “Saving with gold can be as much about liquidity if you need to sell and cover hedges elsewhere as well as buying at the right time to protect your wealth”.

Where should one go to buy one’s gold coins with confidence?

“The purchasing of gold coins is not a trivial matter, but contact with the consultants of or , (the web based established platforms where I bought my gold coins), are excellent. I never have to wait for advice and the people I deal with are obliging, available, friendly and reassuring”.

Moreover the coins are certified, sorted, sold with a bar code and each specimen is unique. It applies to semi-collectible coins (like the 5F Napoleon) and “investment quality” coins.

“Not only is the commission on purchases or sales charged by or tiny (1%), but furthermore  the coins have already been appraised and verified which represents time and money saved. This gives one confidence and that  is something priceless”.

Gold still to outperform commodities reckons Broker

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

The interaction of the world’s markets plays an important role in the fluctuations and evolution of the Gold Price. Politics, economic policies and strategies, world events and currency changes can all have an effect on the demand for Gold as investors, private and institutional look to protect their wealth resources. At we champion the safe haven that gold and gold coin investment can offer in these troubled ecomonic circumstances where we have rising inflation, instability across the world and are on the verge of a new period of severe financial crisis.
Here’s a snapshot update from our regular expert analyst Bill Downey who explains where the gold price is, where it might be going and some of the factors that are affecting it.

In Tuesday nights website update — initial resistance in gold was listed at 1464-1468 and the high so far is 1467. Second tier resistance for today was listed at 1474-1478 — and that would be the area to watch if we can continue to move higher today.

Initial support was listed at 1444-1455 and the low so far today is 1453.60

London Gold Fix $1461.25 -$8.25

While the June gold contract saw an initial downtrend overnight, gold prices have recovered above the prior session’s closing value in the early Tuesday US trade action. Gold appears to be partially undermined by declining oil prices and a dampening of overall inflationary fears.

News that a major commodity trading brokerage firm was recommending profit taking in commodities, may also be undermining the gold market slightly. However, another key brokerage firm suggested that gold would outperform most commodities directly ahead and that might help gold prices stand up to the partial liquidation wave in some commodity prices.
Indian gold prices were slightly weaker overnight and news of another quake in Japan applied some minor pressure to gold and other commodity prices overnight. While the trade balance report from the US can drive gold prices, expectations for a slight narrowing of the US trade deficit might be seen as a negative to gold prices, especially if that report lifts the greenback and adds pressure to the bond market. If that would be the case — we think it would be temporary. The US dollar is under pressure again today and the Euro has now traded at the 145 level — a very IMPORTANT price point.

While the gold market generally saw dovish comments from the Fed yesterday, dialogue from the Fed’s Hoenig today might be add to the downside tilt as they are trying to “TALK” their way into making the markets think that there is not going to be more stimulus. So that is the one thing that could return gold to testing the lower areas from last night.

Equity markets in Asia and Europe were weaker during overnight trading and early indications are for the US stock market to open today’s session with moderate losses as Alcoa reported lower than expected earnings and Japan raised the danger level of its on-going crisis. The Japanese Economics Minister said that last month’s earthquake and tsunami would likely have a larger negative impact on the Japanese economy than earlier projections. A proposal by the African Union to end the Libyan conflict was rejected by rebel forces. The German CPI during March was up 2.1% year-on-year, in line with forecasts. A survey of German economic sentiment during April was 7.1, lower than estimates. The UK CPI during March was 4.0% year-on-year, lower than projections. The UK Trade during February was 6.78 billion Pounds, a smaller deficit than forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the February International Trade Balance, as well as Export and Import Prices at 7:30 AM, and surveys of store sales will also be released during the session. In addition, Fed Regional President Dudley will give a speech during the session. The first leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 3-Year Note auction, will have results announced at 12:00 PM CENTRAL time.

Going to the gold charts:

Last nights low was right at the dotted trend line on 30 min chart we published on the website and as long as the 1444-1455 area holds the trend remains up. The market is NOT AS BULLISH as it looked when we entered the week — and even though gold has come back 13 dollars from the low — we’re not out of the woods just yet on this pullback. The 1468-1470 area is probably the most important price point to watch today. We want to see gold above 1468 on a closing basis to add more potential that the pullback is complete. Until then — we can’t rule out more downside pressure today.

It seems like the 9am-10:30AM EST period today might be where the rubber meets the road — and that time frame is when gold would be the most likely to try and pullback.

In summary — the trend is still up —but not as solid as last week– the 1468-1470 area is resistance. Support is the 1444-1455 area. We still favor the bulls —- but we might remain in the 1450-1470 area today in price.

by Bill Downey

Don’t forget Exclusive Free trial to Goldcoin readers on Gold
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The most detailed info that publishes is available on the web site via paid subscription.

People often ask if it is the right time to buy gold?

Quite simply it is always the right time to buy gold if you are looking to protect and preserve your wealth.

Sure the price can vary but the real value in owning physical gold is that it is your outright property which cannot be wiped out during a crisis or financial collapse. So think of a stocks and shares investment (or any other “paper” investment) the day after a crash – now think of physical, tangible gold assets that you own the day after a crash. The difference is obvious – one is worthless and may even lead to debt, the other has inherent value that will still be sought and can therefore be traded or sold.

Buying gold nowadays is simple and accessible to everyone.

You do not need to physically possess gold at home to fully participate, indeed quite the contrary – keep it safe, keep it in a vault and keep it accessible to sell whenever you choose.

For further information click here.

Gold Trends Intra Day Gold Update – April 5th

Tuesday, April 5th, 2011

In last nights website update resistance was listed at 1437.50-1446 and the high so far is 1439. Support was listed at 1419-1425 and the low so far is 1430.

London Gold Fix $1434.50 +$2.00

There is a lot of cross current news this morning moving gold.

Gold prices were showing some positive action initially overnight despite minor strength in the Dollar versus the Euro and a few others. The gold market got marginal support from suggestions from the US Fed Chairman Monday night who labeled inflationary pressures as transitory, as that seemed to suggest that the Fed chief was a little less confident that inflation would indeed remain in check. In other words, the trade seemed to take the Fed comments overnight as a sign that inflation pressures were being acknowledged but were not fully entrenched yet. However, the Fed Chairman also suggested that recent price gains were probably temporary and that left the gold market somewhat confused. Indeed — he looked nervous during the discussion.

The gold market garnered some support from news of a credit downgrade of Portugal overnight, especially since the ratings suggested that the status of that debt remained under review.

Gold traded in the 1434 to 1439 area up until the London open. However, outside market action have limited gold prices early in the trade today, as some commodity markets like corn corn and soybeans started out on a softer footing–at least initially.

The gold market was also undermined by news of further Chinese tightening action overnight. The Chinese moved 25 basis points on lending and deposit rates and that event probably increased overhead resistance in the US gold market this morning near the 1440 area. Still — the last few rate increases from China had almost no effect — pretty much about what we’ve seen so far today. Over the last four hours — gold has tried to break below the 1430 area. Each hour has

The gold market will also be watching the GOP budget proposal release later this morning, as aggressive deficit reduction efforts could also be seen as a limiting development for gold prices. Paul Ryan has rolled out the plan and the big number is 6.2 TRILLION DEFICT REDUCTION OVER 10 YEARS —– The proposal was just released — so it will take a few days to see how the market absorbs this and how the debate unfolds.

Meanwhile the US BUDGET DEFICIT CEILING runs out FRIDAY — and the politicians are going back and forth in threats to not extend the ceiling on the Republican side.

While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe are generally lower this morning. The Dollar was slightly higher against most of the major currencies during overnight trading, although posting a substantial loss versus the Pound.

A credit ratings downgrade of the sovereign debt of Portugal by one level this morning. Euro zone Retail Sales during February were down 0.1%, lower than expected. Major US economic numbers released this morning include a survey of US non-Manufacturing industries grew less than expected, but it wasn’t a barn burner.

GOING TO THE GOLD CHART — today we show the daily chart and the short term cycles we follow on the website. Orange circles are when the stronger trends usually peak — and the blue circles are when the weaker trend usually ends. While not all points work — take February for example — there is enough to at least keep an eye on developments. The trend is still up —- watch 1439-1444 as a key area.

On the downside — there has been a test every hour since 7AM EST of the 1430 area but so far it is holding— and that puts SUPPORT for the remainder of the day at 1425-1430. As long as price is above that area — its still up.

In summary —- the trend remains up —-We think that 1439-1444 is the PIVOT PRICE AREA TO WATCH — and closes above 1444 would increase the potential for the upside. PRICE ALWAYS RULES — but these short term trends need to be watched going into Wednesday. AS LONG AS PRICE HOLDS 1425-1430 support today — continue to favor higher.

by Bill Downey

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Gold Trends Intra Day Gold Update – Mar 10th

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

In last nights website update resistance was listed at 1432-1438 and the high was 1431.50 — initial support levels at 1417-1425 were broken — and 2nd tier support was listed at 1403-1409 and the low so far is the 1410.50

Last nights website update discussed a break below the 1420 area would be suggestive that this weeks pullback would still be in play and that next support would be the 1398-1412 area.

Gold and other commodity prices were undermined by softer than expected Chinese economic data, increased jobless claims in USA and renewed concerns of Euro debt because of news of a Spanish debt downgrade. News that PIMCO was turning bearish toward US government securities has also provided the potential for higher interest rates.

News that South African gold output in January rose by more than 15% over last year may have added to today’s downdraft from a short term perspective.

Developments in the Middle East should continue to provide some measure of support for gold prices, especially with the day of protest directly ahead in Saudi Arabia and the situation in Libya in a continued state of flux.

While equity markets in Asia and Europe were lower during overnight trading and the US stock market down hard in early trading, there’s a lot of bearishness this morning.

Looking a today’s chart — we can see that once the lower channel line gave way —- a lot of stops were set off and are getting cleared out. We’ve discussed this potential since Tuesday evening on the website.

Support for the remainder of the day is the 1398-1409 area and resistance is the 1418-1425 zone. PRICE IS AT THE LOWS from the first week of March near 1410 and should bounce around that area plus or minus a few dollars. If that area gives way then a test of the dotted trend line at 1398-1405 will be in play.

In summary — the lower than expected weakness in China and USA woke up complacent equity bulls. With commodities overbought in most area’s — it has brought on a lot of weakness.

On the chart, the lower red channel line was finally broken — and now we have to see whether gold holds a few dollars above or below last weeks lows near 1410. If prices can’t hold there — then a test of 1398-1403 will be the next test area. With the Saudi demonstrations on Friday — there should be some support going into the close near these levels but the sell off is very hard in equities — and may keep pressure on all fronts.

Prices need to get back above the 1420-1425 area in gold to neutralize this pullback.

by Bill Downey

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Gold is as good as a rock solid Triple A rated Investment

Monday, February 14th, 2011

Gold hasn’t reinvented itself as a currency yet. But it is getting closer.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it will allow clients to use the metal as collateral in some transactions. For example, a hedge fund wanting to borrow money for a short period can put up gold as collateral and use the borrowings to invest elsewhere, betting on making a better return. Typically, banks accept only Treasury bonds and stocks in such agreements.

By making the announcement, J.P. Morgan is effectively saying gold is as rock solid an investment as triple-A rated “Treasurys”, adding to a movement that places gold at the top tier of asset classes. It also is trying to capitalize on all the gold now owned by hedge funds and private investors that is sitting idle in warehouses.

“It’s solidifying a trend that gold is re-establishing its role as a monetary and financial asset,” said Carlos Sanchez, associate director of research with New York commodities consultancy CPM Group.

J.P. Morgan said it is responding to demand from clients, many of which also store gold in the bank’s vaults.

“Many clients are holding gold on their balance sheets as an inflation hedge and are looking to make these assets work for them as collateral,” said John Rivett, collateral-management executive at J.P. Morgan Worldwide Securities Services.

J.P. Morgan’s decision Monday reignited debate among gold’s fans and detractors. For decades, supporters have argued gold is a monetary asset and should be treated on an equal footing with cash. However, gold critics argued the market has been too volatile and too small for it to be considered a legitimate currency.

Recently, though, gold’s status has been rising.

Exchanges in New York, Chicago and Europe recently agreed to accept gold as collateral for certain trades. And the World Gold Council also is gaining traction in its push to have the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision accept the precious metal as a Tier-1 asset for banks, along with government bonds and currencies.

In India, many financial-services companies are offering personal loans against physical gold, a market that is expanding.

“Gold is increasingly being used as collateral around the world,” said Natalie Dempster, the gold council’s director of government affairs. “All these moves reflect a growing recognition of gold’s role as a high-quality, liquid asset.”

Gold futures for February delivery on Monday settled 70 cents lower, or 0.1%, at $1,347.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a nominal record close on Jan. 3 of $1,422.60.

In essence, J.P. Morgan is creating another role for gold, which has limited use now. One of the main laments of the metal’s critics is that, once bought, the metal doesn’t generate any income, compared with interest on bonds or dividends on stocks, and mainly just sits in vaults, rising and falling in value.

“It gives another use to gold as a cash instrument,” said Tom Pawlicki, an analyst at MF Global, a commodities brokerage. Investors who hold gold, he said, “might be less likely to sell it.”

Gold still is far from being the integral part of the monetary system it once was.

After World War II, under the Bretton Woods agreement, several countries pegged their currencies to the dollar, which in turn was fixed to the price of gold. President Richard Nixon ended the dollar-gold peg in 1971.

It is unclear whether customers need to hand over the physical bullion to J.P. Morgan or at what haircut the metal will be pledged with the bank.

There still is risk for financial institutions in taking gold as collateral.

If prices fall sharply, along with the value of the underlying trades, the collateral value could fall short of covering the trading positions, leaving banks scrambling for more margin to cover the losses.

In the past, worries about a lack of liquidity in the gold market have prevented banks from taking gold as collateral. But as investors piled into the market in recent years, the market has deepened.

The market is more liquid than many government-bond markets in Europe, with daily trading volumes normally exceeding $100 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

“When a bank, such as J.P. Morgan, is willing to extend collateral value against an asset such as physical bullion, it shows that they are not worried about the liquidity issue if they might take the collateral over or they have to liquidate the collateral,” said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services, a Chicago broker.

Source Wall Street Journal: Carolyn Cui, Rhiannon Hoyle, Liam Pleven and Matt

Changing attitudes amoungst European Central Banks

Friday, February 19th, 2010

gold reserve is the gold held by a central bank or nation intended as a store of value and as a guarantee to redeem promises to pay depositors, note holders (e.g., paper money), or trading peers, or to secure a currency. Today, gold reserves are almost exclusively, albeit rarely, used in the settlement of international transactions

The Chinese, Indian and Russian and other central banks are buying gold. The Indian Government recently bought 200 tonnes from the IMF to support international commitments. This new trend for buying gold by the Asian, Brazilian and Middle Eastern central banks (who still have very little gold compared to their reserves in dollars) is a supporting factor for gold prices.  As for Occidental central banks, they are less and less inclined to get rid of a metal which could become part of a new world reserve currency as desired by Russia and China.

The table below shows the proportion of gold in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and not the gold reserves ratio of the currency.  As the FED has very little foreign currency in its reserves, its gold stock seems considerable, but this stock of gold is only 1.6% of  the quantity of dollars in the money supply.

National Reserves December 2009

World gold reserves

Potential candidates for large gold purchases over the next few years are in the order they appear on the list: Japan, China, Russia, India  and Taiwan.

Astonishingly, in March, a European bank signed agreements with Washington II (with a sales quota of 500t per year) to buy gold! This is astonishing because since the beginning of the 1980’s, central European banks have not stopped liquidating their gold stocks which has had a heavy impact on the price of gold which dropped from $850 in 1980 to $256 in 2001.  Between 1999 and 2002 Gordon Brown then, Chancellor of the Exchequer, sold off 395 tonnes, 60% of the UK’s gold reserves, at rock bottom prices averaging $280 per ounce, about a quarter of its current value.

As for the USA, their gold reserves have remained virtually unchanged since 1980 and today are 8133 tonnes.  But doubts remain about the proportion of physical gold that would be available to control gold prices, as the gold may not longer physically exist in the reserves but is in paper form.

Fort knox

A year ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would sell  off 403t from the 3217t that it had held for several years  in its reserves.  During the G20, the gold market was nervous due to speculation about possible additional sales by the IMF.  The IMF had simply stated that it would allocate the sale of these 403t of gold to help poor countries.  Subsequently the IMF sold 200 tonnes to India , 10 tonnes to Sri lank and 2 tonnes to Mauritius. That this announcement is part of a deliberate plan to curb the price of gold in these difficult times is clearly questionable.  But it will be impossible to counter market forces in the long term.  When the price of gold rose from $200 to $850 at the end of the 1970’s, the IMF sold 1600t of gold on the market without being able to stop the rise.  To these sales were added the sales of the USA who liquidated some of their gold stocks.

Today the central banks’ gold stocks are a lot lower and the state of the economy is in a lot more trouble than during the stagflation of the 1970’s.  The price of gold no longer has formidable adversaries who can curb its rise.  Instead it now has formidable allies in countries such as China and Russia!

Adapted from an article  by Léonard Sartoni first published in Q1 2009

The extraordinary properties of gold explained by Ian Fleming.

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

There are no Swiss banks in Goldfinger although “Goldfinger, in ready money, is the richest man in England. In Zürich, in Naussau, in Panama, in New York, he has twenty million pounds’ worth of gold bars on safe deposit.” But Goldfinger uses Switzerland as the hub of his gold trafficking (which was illegal at the time in some European countries). There he has a discreet plant where he melts down car parts made of solid gold to then discreetly bank them or ship them on. Switzerland never had capital controls that prevented the free flow of gold or other precious metals, and this makes it even today the world’s first market for gold. In the movie, Goldfinger uses this Swiss freedoom to his advantage.

Colonel Smithers explains the British secret service’s interest for Mr Goldfinger operations during the dinner at the Bank of England:

‘The great thing to remember about gold is that it’s the most valuable and most easily marketable commodity in the world. You can go to any town in the world, almost to any village, and hand over a piece of gold and get goods or services in exchange. Right?’ Colonel Smithers’s voice had taken on a new briskness. His eyes were alight. He had his lecture pat. Bond sat back. He was prepared to listen to anyone who was master of his subject, any subject. ‘And the next thing to remember,’ Colonel Smithers held up his pipe in warning, ‘is that gold is virtually untraceable. Sovereigns have no serial numbers. If gold bars have Mint marks stamped on them the marks can be shaved off or the bar can be melted down and made into a new bar. That makes it almost impossible to check on the whereabouts of gold, or its origins, or its movements round the world. In England, for instance, we at the Bank can only count the gold in our own vaults, in the vaults of others banks and at the Mint, and make a rough guess at the amounts held by the jewellery trade and the pawn-roking fraternity.’

‘Why are you so anxious to know how much gold there is in England?’ [How much gold is there in England today?]

‘Because gold and currencies backed by gold are the foundation of our international credit. We can only tell what the true strength of the pound is, and other countries can only tell it, by knowing the amount of valuta we have behind our currency [valuta = the value of a currency expressed in terms of its rate of exchange with gold (or some other currency)]. And my main job, Mr Bond-‘Colonel Smithers’s bland eyes had become unexpectedly sharp – ‘is to watch for any leakage of gold out of England – out of anywhere in the sterling area. And when I spot a leakage, an escape of gold towards some country where it can be exchanged more profitably than at our official buying price, it is my job to put the CID Gold Squad on to the fugitive gold and try get it back into our vaults, plug the leak and arrest the people responsible. And the trouble is, Mr Bond-‘Colonel Smithers gave a forlorn shrug of the shoulders-‘that gold attracts the biggest, the most ingenious criminals. They are very hard, very hard indeed, to catch.’

‘Isn’t all this only a temporary phase? Why should this shortage of gold go on? They seem to be digging it out of Africa fast enough. Isn’t there enough to go round? Isn’t it just like any other black market that disappears when the supplies are stepped up, like the penicillin traffic after the war?’

‘I’m afraid not, Mr Bond. It isn’t quite as easy as that. The population of the world is increasing at the rate of five thousand four hundred every hour of the day. A small percentage of those people become gold hoarders, people who are frightened of currencies, who like to bury some sovereigns in the garden or under the bed. Another percentage needs gold fillings for their teeth. Others need gold-rimmed spectacles, jewellery, engagement rings. All these new people will be taking tons of gold off the market every year. New industries need gold wire, gold plating, amalgams of gold. Gold has extraordinary properties which are being put to new uses every day. It is brilliant, malleable, ductile, almost unalterable and more dense than any of the common metals except platinum. There’s no end to its uses. But it has two defects. It isn’t hard enough. It wears out quickly, leaves itself on the linings of our pockets and in the sweat of our skins. Every year, the world’s stock is invisibly reduced by friction. I said that gold has two defects.’ Colonel Smithers looked sad. ‘The other and by far the major defect is that it is the talisman of fear. Fear, Mr Bond, takes gold out of circulation and hoards it against the evil day. In a period of history when every tomorrow may be the evil day, it is fair enough to say that a fat proportion of the gold that is dug out of one corner of the earth is at once buried again in another corner.’

Ian Fleming – “Goldfinger”



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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."