6th january Gold Trend Analysis

Last nights website update listed resistance at 1628-1633 and the high was 1631 spot gold. Support was listed at 1602-1612 and the low was 1612.

Trades — same silver orders as yesterday and listed on the website.

Will email if i change or enter gold orders.

CME News

London Gold Fix $1,621.00 +$6.50

While February gold managed another new high for the move overnight, some traders were holding back from fresh positions until after the US payroll readings. Some bulls thought gold needed a very strong number just to keep the fear of slowing and deflation in check from the Euro zone, while others think gold is destined to shift its focus more exclusively toward the oil market and the Iranian sanctions situation.

In retrospect, the gold bulls are probably heartened by a series of gold price predictions this week, which generally targeting gold to rise back above the $1,800 level. At least to start, it would appear that the Greenback was showing some weakness, but gold recently has seen its correlation with currencies and equities dissipate somewhat.

From a tech Equity markets in Southeast Asia China was up, Hong kong down overnight but on the week they managed to post minor gains. Indian stocks were higher while European stocks earlier this morning were showing a positive track off hopes of something positive from US payroll figures. In early action, US equity markets are down almost 100 points on the Dow. The US Dollar has started out higher. Overnight the markets saw generally disappointing Euro zone economic readings, with a record high jobless figure potentially rekindling concerns of further Euro zone problems ahead. In looking ahead, the markets are gyrating after the the US non farm payroll report as a big spike down to 1612 and back to 1626 took place on the news. However, it is also clear that many markets are already looking ahead to European and US debt supply flows next week. There are more meeting set this weekend in euro land.

Going to the chart

Last night website favored higher for today IF we exceeded 1633 — and so far the 1631 area has been the high. Gold traded in a range we discussed with 1616 as the lows— and then we did get a spike to 1612 on the NFP news and then up to 1625 and now is near 1616. It was a bullish number but equities and commodities have not recapturned their highs from earlier today. Thus gold traded at both our first support and resistance areas. If you shorted last night at the website price consideration, take half your profits at 1612-1615 —— and 1602 on the 2nd half. Gold got as high as the green resistance line and our weekly target price was met. The bounce we expected to end on Wednesday did pullback and make a new high today — but was not able to break the 1633 area. If gold can drop into next week, we look for a cycle low and try and take a trade. We think the high for the day is in — or its favored anyway. the Jan 5th Buttonwood turn date might be in play also.

The Euro situation in emergency meeting again this weekend, at that might be keeping gold subdued. The US dollar made another new high today and that also is keeping pressure on. Support for the rest of the day is the 1595-1606 area. A hard break would have 1588-1593 as support. In sum, next week should set up for a 1 to 2 week trend and I’ll be looking for a set-up. If you shorted the area we gave you — and we close below 1600, you might want to hold 1/2 into the Monday session — and get rid of the first half here at 1612-1615. Be careful near the Europe close. Europe and Iran are the key items going into the closes today.



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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."