4th november Gold Trend Analysis

In last nights website update resistance was listed at 1765-1777 and the high so far today is 1764. Support was listed at 1744-1755 and the low so far is 1750

Trades — Long gold from 1724 –sold 1/2 at 1735 — have stop at 1719 intra day
Long silver from 32.87 & 33.60 —sold 1/2 at 34.30 — have stop at 32.87

News this morning — most equities down hard —- metals in very choppy trade over last 12 hours.

Global leaders and G20 are meeting —and My speculation is that something has to be worked out with the IMF over the weekend. So far Merkel said this morning that they can’t come to agreement on IMF Funding.

Italy PMI 43 and Spain PMI 42 —— going down and what can we expect when they go into Austerity program. This makes the German economic numbers today (which were not good) more important to the global condidtions. The credit tightning and austerity and the “liquidity” issue is coming to a head. There is news that ITALY REFUSED IMF AUSTERITY this morning.

In Greece — the confidence vote is on for today as to whether he stays or goes.

The real issue here is do the BANKS have to sell off assets and cause FORCED selling? And what of the MF Global mess ? The customer segregated accounts were compromised — and customers have not seen their funds transferred at the moment.

Going back to G20 and the IMF — it would seem they have to come up with something overe the weekend. When the USA went off the gold standard — there was a basket of currency created called SDR’s — special Drawing Rights. But it was never used as the Saudi’s and USA made a deal —- Oil will only be sold in US dollars —-thus keeping the US Dollars reserve status. But could there be an infusion of SDR’s to bail out Europe ? It would seem that the G20 and IMF have to agree on something. I’m not sure what the impact is for gold ———-and whether its 100 dollars higher on Monday — or lower — or unchanged. The one thing that is sure is the noose is tighning on the “liquidity” problem.

Thus I’m very mixed on whether I want to to hold my trade position over the weekend. I’ll send out an email before the close to let you know if I will hold the positions.

Going to the chart

Gold has reached important resistance just about reaching the 61% retrace — but missing by a few dollars. The only decision really for me is whether I want to be long this weekend with the major “G20” meeting —and it is a crisis meeting. From a chart perspective — the move up since the low has been choppy and overlapping up until last week. The question is whether gold begins a pullback from this area —- or from the 1800 area. While long term positions should be held — the “trade” position is another question all together. The very short trend is still up —- but coming under fire today as the UNCERTAINTY of the “liquidity” situation and decisions that will be made this weekend in G20 — and whether traders want to remain long. I think the uncertainly could very well keep us in a choppy trade thru the day and I don’t think we can rule anything out going into Monday. I’ll email near the CLOSE of GLOBEX on my final decision on whether I’m holding over the weekend. Support for the remainder of the day in gold is the 1739-1747 area and resistance is the 1763-1773 area.



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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."