28th October Gold Trend Analysis

In last nights website update resistance was listed at 1747-1557 and the high so far today is 1752 —support was listed at 1714-1728 and the low so far today is 1732 (all prices spot)

Trades – Short 1 position gold at 1741 spot —- stop 1754 spot
I changed my order to cover 1/2 at 1731 spot —

If I decide to get out totally — I’ll send an email. So far the pullback seems to be supporting in the mid 1730’s —————– and a close above 1740 keeps the upside alive.

I have a buy order for today only at 32.95 spot silver ————-

FOMC meeting on Nov 1st and 2nd next week and G20 meeting on Nov 3rd-4th


London Gold Fix $1,735.00

The bull’s have to feel good about the action in gold this week, as the trade started out with what seemed to be a move to quality focus but when that impetus was lost, the gold market seemed to simply shift back into al commodity market.

Some in the market might suggest that concerns toward the Euro zone remain in place and that gold continues to draft off safe haven issues, especially in the wake of a rather sharp jump in yields from an Italian bond auction overnight. While the gold market hasn’t paid that much attention to the action in the dollar markets recently, seeing the dollar come under massive pressure yesterday and remain near levels not seen since early September has probably given the gold bulls a slight assist. Still, others think that a shift in policy stance by the Chinese, from aggressive tightening to a more balance approach might have been responsible for some of gold gains this week.

Because of an improvement in sentiment for the economy, it is possible that gold might lag behind silver and copper but with gold managing a fresh new high for the move overnight, the potential for gold to hold 1720 or 1733 for today has potential. Therefore, traders might expect gold to benefit in the event that US scheduled data comes in as expected, as that might support equities and further the improved macro-economic view. Hard line bulls could also suggest that gold is capable of moving higher in the face of favorable economic conditions or in the face of renewed Euro zone tensions, but that remains to be seen. While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally higher during overnight trading, US equity markets are open unchanged prices at the moment. The US Dollar is slightly stronger against most of the majors this morning, although posting a small loss versus the Yen. Japanese Industrial Output during September was down 4.0%, weaker than market expectations. French Consumer Spending during September was down 0.5%, weaker than market forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include September Personal Income and Consumer spending and the third quarter Employment Cost Index at 8:30 AM, and Consumer Sentiment was 60.9

Going to the chart

Gold pulled back overnight and got to 1732 — but after spending almost 8 hours below 1740 — gold is so far supporting in the mid 1730’s and so far has shown support in that area. The fact that gold is supporting above the 1728 area is suggesting that gold might not be ready to move much lower than our listed support of 1716-1727 from last night. The other factor is that the failure to close below 1739 on Thursday leaves the door open for higher prices next week. So far gold’s pullback has been light into the Friday timeframe — anything significantly lower is beginning to lose ground. We might get a clue when Europe closes at 11:30 AM —– in summary —- it is possible that today’s outcome will not be decided until later today. We did see good support in the mid 1730”s last night. In summary, the short term trend is up — and a close above 1740 today would be suggestive that price can go higher next week. THE FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The pullback seem’s to be supporting in the mid 1730’s so far today —- and the potential to hold 1728-1731 into the close still has potential. Any new high next week would be favorable for gold to continue its move into the first 10 days of November. Resistance for the remainder of the day is the 1750-1757 area and we can’t rule out another push up into that area. Support is the 1720-1727 area.



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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."