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15th november Gold Trend Analysis

Last nights website update listed resistance at 1790-1801 and the high so far is 1786. Support was listed at 1763-1772 and the low so far today is 1759.

Trades — I have no orders at the moment —- looking for set up — and cautious due to options expiration on the 22nd. Market can still move either way — and the move into next week favors to be a good sized one. With history on options expiration —- i remain cautious. If the cartel still in charge we will get a pullback — IF NOT — a huge short cover could develop. At the moment — price has not tipped its hand.

CME NEWS

London Gold Fix $1,765.00 -15.50

December gold was on a weaker footing up until about 3 hours ago when price touched 1759. Then it moved back up in a choppy fashion near 1770 and once the retail sales came out – has moved nicely to the highs of the day.

Favorable Chinese demand news was floated in the headlines overnight on the bull side.

The gold trade is heavily focused on the threat of slowing from the European situation and this keeps things with a lot of uncertainty. Gold might have been partially undermined earlier by news that a noted fund manager had liquidated a portion of his long gold positions….and after the news, and the gain in the GLD ETF inventory, traders seem to have rethought the outlook. My own personal opinion is that the fund manager took a big hit in another holding and liquidated some gold holdings to make up for the other fund. (the Sino stock fiasco)

At least to start today, the gold market looks to track its commodity market factors and that seems to have given the bulls an edge since the positive retail sales number this morning. It is possible that gold could garner some support from hopes of easing from the Fed, but only if today’s PPI readings are under control, but that type of news could also be a doubled edged sword, if the trade translates soft inflation readings with a return to recessionary type conditions. While equity markets in Asia and Europe are generally lower during overnight trading, US equity markets erased the overnight gains and is currently unchanged. The US Dollar is sideways against most of the major’s this morning, although posting a loss versus the Yen. German GDP during the third quarter was up 2.5% year-on-year, in-line with forecasts. UK CPI during October was up 5.0% year-on-year, lower than expectations. German economic sentiment during November was -55.2, weaker than forecasts. Euro zone GDP during the third quarter was up 1.4% year-on-year, in-line with estimates. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the October Producer Price Index, October Retail Sales, and the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey at 8;30 AM, September Business Inventories at 10:00 AM, and store sales will also be released during the session. As “Darth” has pointed out —- these numbers don’t make any sense any more.

Watch SPAIN AND ITALY 10 year yields ——- at 6.82 this moring ——- anything above 7% is danger territory.

FRANCAIS ESPANOL ITALIANO CHINESE

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Thoughts
"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."