10th november Gold Trend Analysis

In last nights website update, resistance was listed at 1783-1793 and the high so far is 1776 — support was listed at 1741-1753 and the low so far is 1737

Trades —

I’ve JUST BOUGHT GOLD AT 1744.50 -at 10:52 am EST Thursday— with a stop at 1731 INTRA DAY —- target 1770 to exit. Will discuss tonight on Website —- THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM TRADE that i will exit from before the weekend.

London Gold Fix $1,766.00 -14.00

The focus of the gold trade seems to be in a state of flux recently, as gold late last week and at times early this week, seemed to be showing signs of returning to a move to quality stance.

Overnight Gold Fields posted a slight dip in 3rd quarter gold production, but that company expects to meet its full year gold production targeting. With South Africa also posting a gold output decline of 9% in September of 2011, versus September of 2010, it would seem like the pattern of weak gold production from South Africa has continued.

Supply side news is being given little credence, because of the intense focus on big picture macro-economic issues and also because the gold market remains fixated on the ebb and flow of investment demand.

While equity markets in Asia were generally lower during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe are mixed this morning, US equity markets are open with moderate gains. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the majors this morning. Jefferson County, Alabama declared the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee left rates the same. The Chinese Trade surplus during October was $17.0 billion, lower than market expectations and due in large part to a larger than expected jump in Imports. Japanese Machinery Orders during September were down 8.2%, weaker than market forecasts. German CPI during October was up 2.5% year-on-year, in line with forecasts. French Industrial Production during September was down 1.7%, lower than expectations. The final leg of the Treasury’s refunding, the 30-year Bond auction, will have results announced at 1:00 PM EST — Major US economic numbers to be released today include September International Trade Balance, September Import & Export Prices and Weekly Jobless Claims were at 390K — down 10k

Going to the chart

The pullback has continued into Thursday and gold is at important support. The 1735-1740 area is a 23% retrace of the move since the 1532 low. The chart shows the action and the short term importance of this area. Any dip below 1735 will need to have gold close above 1744 in order to maintain that mini red channel line. ITs seems that this area is the last support until the 1700 — but would seem to have a good chance of providing the low for Thursday —- staunch bulls looking to go long could use this area — with a stop at 1730 intra day. In summary — the short term trend looks to have peaked and the bears have the advantage at the moment. THE THURSDAY LOW SHOULD BE HERE — 1735-1740 —– and a bounce attempt should develop into Friday. A CLOSE BELOW 1740 WOULD keep downside pressure. BOUNCES ASIDE — the short term trend has a downside bias.



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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."