Archive for the ‘Gold Trends Analysis’ Category

The Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Monday, December 16th, 2013

The Australian Gold Nugget is a popular series of Gold bullion coins issued by the Perth Mint. They
have legal tender status in Australia and are one of the few legal tender bullion coins to change
their design every year, the most notable other being the Chinese Panda.


Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Australian Nugget 1 ounce

Australia issued its first Gold Nugget coins in 1986. From 1986 to 1988, the reverse of  these coins featured images of various Australian Gold nuggets, hence the name. From 1989, the design changed to feature different Kangaroos, a more world-recognised symbol of Australia. The coins are sometimes referred to as Kangaroos but the name

Nugget seems to have stuck. The coins up to 1 Toz change design each year. Each year, a Proof edition is issued and that design becomes the bullion coin design for the following year.

The coins have a unique market niche for two reasons; a “two-tone” frosted design effect and individual hard plastic encapsulation of each coin. Provided they remain as they came from the mint, the quality is maintained and thus premium.

The initial sizes offered were 1/20 Toz, 1/10 Toz, 1/4 Toz, 1/2 Toz and 1 Toz. In 1991, the 2 Toz, 10 Toz and 1 Kg sizes were added. These were created with the intention of using economies of scale to keep premiums low. The face values of the two larger coins were lowered in 1992 in order to bring them more in line with the smaller sizes.

In October 2011, the Perth Mint created a one tonne Gold coin to break the record for the biggest and most valuable, previously held by the Royal Canadian Mint. It is approximately 80 cms diameter and 12 cms thick. The face value is A$1 million but at the time of minting, the Gold price made it worth over A$53 million.

As mentioned, the reverse of the coin features in the early years a Gold nugget and thereafter a Kangaroo. It states the year of the coin, the weight and Gold fineness.

There is also a mintmark ‘P’ which signifies the Perth Mint.

The obverse features a profile view of Queen Elizabeth II designed by Ian Rank-Broadley. The portrait is surrounded by her name, the denomination of the coin and the word AUSTRALIA.

The Australian Gold Nugget coins should not be mistaken for the Australian Lunar Gold Bullion coins. Both coins are minted by Perth Mint and have 999.9‰ fineness but Lunar coins use different animals from the Chinese calendar instead of the Kangaroo.

Investment Advice

There are various grading systems in use around the world. However, the British system is as follows:

All Nugget coins are issued as pure Gold finewness, 999.9‰ and in theory have a low premium just above the value of the Gold.

However, their intrinsic beauty makes them very collectable and they attract good premiums.

As with any coin, the best quality grades will attract the best premiums. The three early years in particular will be those with the highest premium. Although the coins

were issued in Proof form, many were unpacked and have thus been damaged and are at lower gradings. The mintage figures for all sizes of Nuggets are in general quite low, thus every coin will have numismatic premium value also. All round, the Nugget is both a collectable and investable product.


Tax Free Savings

Wednesday, December 11th, 2013

A Tax Free Savings Account in physical gold that you own

UK Taxpayers have a unique opportunity to save in pure gold, a real tangible asset, without paying VAT or Capital Gains Tax. Start from just 1 gram a month.

Gold Britannia and Sovereign investment quality coins offer a unique advantage to investors because they offer between 18% -28% additional benefits over other investments. Why? … because they are completely exempt from Capital Gains Tax. Furthermore, they are exempt from VAT.

Britannia 1 ounce_averse

Britannia 1 ounce averse

Gold Britannia 1 ounce coin

Britannia 1 ounce obverse

Britannia 1 ounce obverse

A beautifully struck gold bullion coin that has UK legal tender status and a face value of £100 – although its actual value is many times greater. The Gold Britannia coin was originally alloyed with Copper, but from 1990 the decision was made to alloy with Silver. This is why the earlier Gold Britannia’s have the deep Gold colour, as opposed to the lighter yellow gold colour of the Britannia since 1990. The latest 2013 coins have no alloy and are pure gold and 999.9°/oo fineness.

Sovereign Elizabeth II_averse

Sovereign Elizabeth II averse

British Gold Sovereign coin

Sovereign Elizabeth II obverse

Sovereign Elizabeth II obverse

The full British Sovereign is one of the most recognised gold coins in the world, with UK legal tender status and it can attract a healthy premium as it is always in demand, at home and abroad. Their legendary reputation comes from their use in a pilot’s survival kit by many air forces, being sewn into their jackets and used to negotiate their safe passage home if downed during a mission. The attraction was the integrity of their British origin which provided the utmost trust to their owners.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

Coins which are legal tender in the UK are exempt from CGT. The Britannia and Sovereign investment coins fall into this category. The UK Customs authority has issued a notice to accountants and financial advisors numbered CG12602 which deals with exemptions and in particular currency in sterling. It refers to:
– TCGA92/S21 (1)(b) which states “Currency in sterling is not an asset for capital gains purposes”. >Learn more
– Further notice from HMRC is given in CG78308 which states “Sovereigns minted in 1837 and later years and Britannia Gold coins are currency but, like all sterling currency, are exempt because of TCGA92/S21 (1)(b) >Learn more Value Added Tax (VAT)
Coins which are of investment quality do not attract VAT. Investment quality is defined as coins which contain a minimum of 900 one thousandths Gold. (900.000 ‰). Rather than being a specifically British rule, it is in fact from the European Union. See notice number 2011/C 351/07. The notice refers to all coins from various countries which would fulfill the investment quality criteria. >Learn more

Confidence in physical gold

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

According to and also confirmed on, the Shanghai Stock Exchange would have delivered more gold than Fort Knox in the States. Needless to say the strong impact that would have on the gold price in the forthcoming future.
Some people even expect tapering to happen again or at least at some point.

Shanghai stock exchange
Shanghai Stock Exchange

The dollar is being printed on such a large scale that it leads to a complete devaluation of the US currency. That may be a satisfaction to the American to have more bank notes printed out but on the other side this does not help other countries like China who is presently sitting with some $3.7 trillion of foreign exchange reserves – other countries are actually in a pretty similar case with lesser quantities but still the concern remains …

Kingworldnews visited the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2009 and said that they had delivered some 8655 tons of gold since 2009. The Chinese bought something like 1.700 tons of gold in the first eight months of this year. It means that gold is actually feeding the Chinese’ foreign exchange reserves. We know that the renminbi is already the second largest currency used in global trade … How long before the dollar becomes fully obsolete ?

Let’s have a closer look at the dollar :

Well, one should be scared when looking at that 14 year perspective published on

a 14 year perspective for the de-dollarization

a 14 year perspective for the de-dollarization

In our article published on Nov 19th 2013 – China remains the world’s largest gold consumer in Q3’13 – we were actually talking about the lack of confidence in the global financial market and systems altogether. As Jim Sinclair was saying ‘Credibility speaks to Confidence and Confidence speaks to Gold’.

Soon we may have part of our savings confiscated. How trustworthy are the banks? 

Investing in physical gold has never been so important. Making it affordable to everybody is our main concern and feasible thanks to our LSP.

For further information with regards to the confiscation in the USA, please read our article The Great Confiscation : Gold ownership was illegal in the USA from 1933 to 1975.

The Krugerrand 1 once

Monday, December 9th, 2013

The Krugerrand is probably the original Gold bullion coin. It was introduced in 1967 as a vehicle for private ownership of Gold whilst also being circulated as currency, hence being minted in a durable alloy. From 1980, further sizes were introduced. See specification table overleaf.


pict krugerrand 1 ONCE The history of the Krugerrand begins with the South African Chamber of Mines which had the inspired idea to market South African Gold by producing a one Troy ounce bullion coin to be sold at a very low premium over the intrinsic Gold value. It was intended to be circulated as currency, hence it was minted in a more durable alloy and contained 2.826g copper to resist scratching and thus giving the coin its golden hue. At the time of launch, the Krugerrand was the only accessible Gold investment opportunity for the everyday buyer and this thought came through from the inception. It was the fi rst coin to contain exactly 1 Troy ounce of Gold.
Despite the coin’s legal tender status, economic sanctions against South Africa made the
Krugerrand an illegal import in many Western countries during the 1970s and 1980s. These sanctions ended when South Africa abandoned apartheid in 1994 and the Krugerrand once again regained its status as one of the worlds’ leading bullion coins.
In 1967, only the one ounce coin was available. From 1980, the fractions were available, namely, one half ounce, one quarter ounce and one tenth ounce. The name is derived from a combination of Paul Kruger, a well-known Boer leader and later President of the Republic and the Rand, the monetary unit of South Africa. The obverse side features the Otto Schultz image of Kruger along with the name of the country “South Africa” in the two languages, English and Afrikaans. The reverse side, designed by Coert Steynberg features the image of a Springbok Antelope, one of the national symbols of South Africa.
By 1980, the
Krugerrand accounted for 90% of the Gold investment coin market. For example, it is estimated that between 1974 and 1985, some 22 million coins were imported into the United States alone. Although it is not a beautiful coin, many millions have been sold since its introduction due to the policy of selling with a very low premium. The success of the Krugerrand led to many other Gold-producing nations minting their own bullion coins, such as the Canadian Maple Leaf in 1979, the Australian Nugget in 1981, the Chinese Panda in 1982, the US Eagle in 1987 and the British Britannia in 1987.
Krugerrand is interesting in that the government of South Africa has classed the coin as legal tender although it has no face value. It therefore fulfills VAT-free criteria for investment coins.

Investment Advice

There are various grading systems in use around the world. However, the British system is as follows:

investment advice krug
Essentially, the bulk of
Krugerrands are produced in a non-proof form although the South African Mint produces limited edition Proof quality Krugerrands as collector’s items. These coins in particular attract a healthy premium and are priced well above the value of the bullion alone. However, non-Proof coins also have a premium above the value of the bullion.
The Proof and non-Proof coins can be distinguished by the reeding, that is, the number of serration on the edge of the coin. Proof coins have 220, non-Proof have 180.

key facts krugerrand

Krugerrands are made of an alloy of Gold and Copper – this effect also being known as Crown Gold as it has long been used for the British Sovereign coins. Due to the popularity of the Krugerrand, there are also many fakes in existence and the investor should be wary. Copper alloy gives a much more orange appearance than silver alloy. Likewise copper is very durable and coins should be in good condition always.
The best marker of authenticity is the weight and this should be checked carefully using the table below since the Gold weight and total weight are known. Check also the reeding.


specs krugerrand
All investment coins sold by are EF quality or above.

For further information: +44 (0)203 318 5612

The Panda 1 ounce

Wednesday, December 4th, 2013

The Chinese Gold Panda is a popular series of Gold bullion coins issued by the People’s Republic
of China in Proof-like, brilliant uncirculated quality. They are issued in a range of sizes between
1/20 Oz and 1 Oz with larger 2 and 5 Oz coins being additionally issued in some years.

panda 1 onceChina issued its first Gold coins bearing the Panda design in 1982. These were limited
to sizes of 1/10 Troy ounce along with 1/4 Toz, 1/2 Toz and 1 Toz. From 1983, the 1/20 Toz size was added and additionally a 2 Toz and 5 Toz coin is sometimes issued.
These strikingly beautiful coins are always issued in Proof-like brilliant uncirculated quality and prove very popular.
A different design was issued each year until the 2000. When the 2001 edition was announced, so too was a freeze of the design and thus the 2002 Panda is identical to the 2001. Collectors spoke up on behalf of the annual change and China responded by reversing their policy so that from 2003 onwards, the designs again change each year.
However, on the reverse side, it always features the endangered Giant Panda. It also features the size, Gold fi newness and monetary value.
The main design on the obverse of the coin has hardly changed, save for minor detail changes in the image. It features Beijing’s famous Temple of Heaven (Tien Tien) in the centre with Chinese characters on the top saying “Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo” meaning People’s Republic of China and at

the bottom the year of issue. If it is a commerative issue, the theme will also be marked here.
There was an adjustment of the face values of the coins in 2000/2001 – please see
the table overleaf for details.
The Chinese mints usually do not employ mintmarks. In certain years, there have
been minor variations in items like the size of the date, the style of the temple and
so on. These allow the numismatist to identify the originating mint. In some years,
but not all, other marks and Proof marks (signifi ed by a ‘P’) have been added. The
four mints involved in the production of the Panda are Beijing, Shanghai, Shengyang
and Shenzhen.

Investment Advice


All Panda coins are issued as pure Gold fineness, 999.9‰ and in theory have a low premium just above the value of the Gold.
However, their intrinsic beauty makes them very collectable and they attract good premiums.
As with any coin, the best quality grades will attract the best premiums. The early years in particular will be those with the highest premium. Although the coins were issued in Proof form, many were unpacked and have thus been damaged and are at lower gradings. The mintage figures should be carefully examined – the number originally minted is quoted but it has been found that production continues for various years, hence the total mintage may be quite a bit higher some years after.




All investment coins sold by

are EF quality or above.

For further information: +44 (0)203 318 5612

The Maple Leaf 1 once

Sunday, December 1st, 2013

The Canadian Gold Maple Leaf is one of the oldest bullion coins alongside the Krugerrand. It is a classically beautiful coin, internationally recognised and provides investors with a secure, quality addition to a portfolio.


The Royal Canadian Mint introduced the Maple Leaf in 1979. Along with the Krugerrand, it has been in continuous production ever since. It came about because of the Krugerrand – at the time, there was an economic boycott of South Africa so Krugerrands were not widely available – and thus the Maple Leaf fi lled a gap in the market. It contains virtually no base metals at all and uses Gold exclusively mined in Canada.


The earliest years between 1979 and 1981 had a Gold fineness of 999.0‰ but 1982 onwards is 999.9‰. For those same fi rst years, only a 1 Toz coin was produced. Between 1982 and 1985, the 1/4 Toz and 1/10 Toz sizes were added. Then in 1986 the 1/2 Toz was added and in 1993 a 1/20 Toz coin joined the group. It has remained thus to date except 1994 when a 1/15 Toz coin was produced for that year only. That year, a Platinum 1/15 Toz coin was also produced, possibly for jewellery, but both the Gold and Platinum 1/15 Toz coins were not a success and were dropped. The Maple Leaf is also available in Silver and Palladium.

Each coin features the image of Queen Elizabeth II by Ian Rank-Broadley on the obverse side. It also has the denomination and year of issue. On the reverse is an image of Canada’s national symbol, the maple leaf along with the word CANADA and the Gold fi neness in both English and French. Every coin is guaranteed to contain the stated amount in Troy ounces of fi ne Gold. The coins are identical in design except for the obvious items such as weight.

All Maple Leaf coins are legal tender in Canada although are categorised as “non-circulating bullion coins”. Their Gold fi neness easily puts them into the general category of being VAT-exempt.

On 3rd May 2007, the Royal Canadian Mint unveiled a 100 Kg Gold Maple Leaf with a face value of C$ 1 million although the Gold content makes it worth much more. The coin was produced as a promotional product to give the mint a higher international profi le. However, several interested buyers came forward so the mint announced it would manufacture to order. There are believed to be five confirmed orders and/or deliveries. It held the record for the largest coin until 2011 when an Australian coin superseded it.

Investment Advice

There are various grading systems in use around the world. However, the British system is as follows:


All Maple Leaf coins are issued as pure Gold finewness, 999.9‰ and in theory have a low premium just above the value of the Gold.


However, the reality is that a 5% premium should be achieved for a quantity of coins

with higher values for individual coins. As always, the smaller value coins will have higher premiums.
The coins were never really designed to be handled due to the softness of 24 carat Gold, the milled edge and clear fi eld around the image of the Queen. With some coins supplied in tubes, this makes them susceptible to handling marks and other damage. So careful examination of coins is highly recommended.



How much does 1 gram of pure gold cost ?

Thursday, November 28th, 2013

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Manipulation of financial markets ?

Wednesday, November 27th, 2013

What’s happening with the London gold fixing ?

First, Bloomberg reported that the U.K.Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) was investigating over the way gold prices were set every day in London, as the main bullion-trading centre in the world based on information from the LBMA.

Now it is the BaFin, German’s financial supervisory authority, who is actually investigating into suspected price-fixing of benchmark gold and silver prices.


One should ask ?

The facts :
It would seem that the London fix, benchmark rate used by mining companies, central banks and other companies to buy, sell and value gold, may have been subject to manipulation over the past few months.  According to some traders interviewed by Bloomberg, it seems that ‘insider trading’ around the gold fixing is potentially possible as dealers and customers exchange information. That should lead to a wider investigation into how global rates are being set.
Remember last year when the London interbank offered rate – LIBOR – was being manipulated. Would other financial markets be manipulated ?
Similar investigations would be under way in the Uk and US, no sources

actually confirmed that point.
It wouldn’t be the first time prices are being manipulated.


Gold reaches short term support point on Price Chart

Tuesday, July 2nd, 2013

Here at we welcome the expert analysis of Bill Downey from which he kindly allows us to use here for our readers.
There are many interesting insights into how the markets work and why we are where we are.

Gold Daily Update from June 27, 2013

Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1448 for bullish

Support and Resistance

Initial Resistance 1247-1257 and 2nd tier 1271-1281
Initial Support 1220-1225 and 2nd tier 1189-1207


The gold market fell out of bed again today with the majority of the declines seen early in the Wednesday morning trade. While gold attempted to recover it would seem like the gold trade won’t easily discount the prospect of a coming end to global QE. It is also possible that knock on selling by gold derivative investors will keep negative headlines flowing in the days ahead, as gold prices falling down to fresh multi year lows is clearly damaging sentiment toward the yellow metal. With equities also siphoning off capital from gold, adverse currency market action and damaged charts, the bull camp just doesn’t seem to have much to bolster their case.

Gold Overview

Gold sold off hard once again as the selling is rampant and all trends remain down. Today hit the 1220 support line on the hourly chart and a new short term cycle begins on Thursday. With the liquidity situation, there is a much higher potential then usual that this new cycle that lasts into July 7th could become another down trending one that would add another two weeks of lower price. We’ll have to see how gold reacts. There has been absolutely no strength in metals at all recently. At this point a lot of players are throwing in the towel as they’ve had enough of losses. With Mid-Week Wednesday providing the low so far this week it’s possible that we can bounce now over the next few days. With that said, the situation coming into Thursday keeps all trends in down mode. We’ll have to see if the cycle and the double bottom at 1220 become relevant.

Gold Hourly Chart

the short term trends are still down. We’ve hit the next support line and price is bouncing. It’s had two successful tests but that’s it. Until we close above 1280 the trend remains down. Support is 1220-1225 and 1189-1207 (last support not shown on chart). 1st resistance is the 1245-1255 area and then 1271-1281. At best all we can say at the moment is this line may provide this week’s low point from which we bounce.

Gold Cycles

the next turn point cycle window closed on Wednesday and a new cycle begins Thursday. With the current situation we can’t eliminate that we’ll have another two week cycle down. We discussed last night that Mid-Week Wednesday could make the low of the week and that potential remains pretty good, but no guarantees in this environment.
The wild card is the liquidity crisis as markets remain very dangerous at the moment. Thus from a cycle standpoint and the situation, it takes second place next to price action. Thursday favors a bounce and consolidation.

Long Term Trend – 1573.17 – 1509.59 (Neutral)
Medium Term Trend – BEARISH (1559.95 -1625.92)

the medium term trend remains down. The red channel line close below 1353 has lead to a 130 dollar in a very short time. The green channel line at 1189 (plus or minus 30 dollars) is the next support point.

What Next?

Wednesday may have reached a short term low and bounce support point on the hourly chart. Thursday favors a consolidation and a bounce with resistance in the 1241-1271 area. Support is the 1220-1225 area and then 1189-1207. All trends are down. The short term cycles are due to turn but this liquidity situation is obviously in charge thus cycles are secondary and price rules. Let’s see if we get a bounce.

Bottom Line

until things stabilize we have to keep favoring the downside. There may be a 1 to 2 week bounce in play on the short term cycles. But with that said, the trends are still down.
The thing that doesn’t make sense is the physical inventory situation at the Comex on the chart below. Until it affects price, we can’t say much more than just showing it.

It is also worth noting that for investors looking for a good time to buy gold, they need not look too far – the recent correction and manipulation means that gold prices have not been so attractive for over 3 years.

If you are an investor always waiting for the right moment – it is here right now.

When gold resumes the $1500 or $1600 an ounce price tag you will be kicking yourself if you didn’t buy now – remember it wasn’t so long ago that the spot was regularly even higher than this at $1700.

Physical gold is always a good investment and buying at today’s prices makes good investment sense because gold will go back up again in the future as debt works its way throught the ceconomy and furhter debt revelations are made in years to come.than today as the price


Wednesday, January 30th, 2013

An occasional series of curiosities of Gold, its history and ideas about it.

There are two types of gold shares, producers and developers. The former produce gold, the latter do not, but there is essentially no difference between them. What determines their value? The value of gold shares is obviously higher in deflationary times, so at the moment they are at a discount. Their value also depends on the fixed price for gold paid by the U.S.A., the world’s largest purchaser of this commodity. Since no other country can buy gold in large quantities the U.S.A. enjoys a buyer’s market and naturally keeps down the price. But more important to the value of the shares than either of these cosmic revelations, is the fact that almost every gold-producing combine invests much of its capital in other combines and vice versa. This means that the estimated value of the shares of a company depend largely on the values of the shares it holds in other companies, and again vice versa. Thus almost everyone in the S. African gold industry has a vested interest in each other, and once or twice a year all gold shares go up, not because there is any more gold – very often there is no gold at all – but because the moment one share goes up, all the other shares automatically become of a higher market value. In case at this point you feel like Alice in Wonderland, I should hasten to assure you that in fact you are. Moreover, if you are a lucky investor, you will discover one morning that your gold company has not found any gold at all but lots of antimony or coal or something. When you have got over the shock of finding that your money which was consciously and deliberately invested in gold is now invested in antimony, you will have the satisfaction of seeing your share outdistancing every other gold share in the market. All this adds zest to life by introducing the tombola into Threadneedle Street: it is like paying sixpence to enter the Middlesbrough Art Gallery and finding yourself in the Uffizi. Finally, every now and then a scandal breaks, a director is sent to jail, and the gold shares of an important company crash dramatically. This is your great chance; remember there is a limit to the peculatory potential of one man even with a large family. Buy the shares quick and wait – nine time out of ten they will soon start to rise again the moment the judicial managers are appointed.

From Sweet Corn: The Undergraduate’s Guide to the Modern World, edited by Victor Sandelson, Granta, Cambridge 1952

Gold: The Terminator amongst currencies: “I’ll be back”

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

Some thoughts on the return of gold as a means of exchange from L’Or et L’Argent (the original article may be read here).

Payment for Iranian oil in gold

More than a trend, there is a strong signal being sent: gold is returning to the markets as a currency of exchange. Thus, China, the largest importer of Iranian oil, follows in the footsteps of India and avoids the embargo imposed on Iran by choosing to pay for crude oil in gold. Because it decided to continue with its nuclear program, Iran saw sanctions imposed by the United States in late 2011. The oil embargo, which will take effect in June, prohibits payment for Iranian crude oil in international exchange currencies (Dollars, Yen, Euros…). Soon after, the European Union announced that it was also going to apply the embargo which will take effect in July.

Gold returns in trading

Although Iran does not represent a large percentage of oil imports to the US and to the EU, the same cannot be said for India and China which between them account for 40% of imports. India, which has a large demand for oil, has chosen to maintain its commercial trade with Iran by paying its bills in gold.

Recently, Forbes magazine reported that China was also intending to avoid the financial sanctions imposed on Iran by buying its oil with gold. China, the largest producer but also the largest consumer of gold, already imports huge amounts of the yellow metal (its imports tripled in 2011, to 428 tons). Such a decision will only amplify the economic effects on the price of gold.

Gold: exchange currency and political weapon

Gold, which is increasingly returning to the mechanisms of means of payment will also take a more political dimension and become a real weapon of war. These events confirm the most bullish gold market for years. In the same way that investors made wise choices by betting on gold since 2007, this also goes for today’s investors, when they will see the ounce crossing the $2,000 mark in the next few months.

 Gold has recently been undergoing a consolidation period – its price is below the value that in reality it should have. It is therefore the right time to strengthen one’s positions on gold, before the summer. Moreover, because of the presidential elections in the US next November, uncertainty over the economic future of the country will undoubtedly cause a new rush on gold… which will not stay at the current level of $1,640.

Chinese to buy Spanish Sovereign Debt

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

Here’s a summary of events moving and shaking the markets supplied by our regular Gold Guru Bill.

In Wednesday nights website update initial resistance was listed at 1457-1465 and the high so far today is 1462.50  — support was listed at 1441-1447 and the low so far is 1450.50

London Gold Fix $1458.25 -$3.25

In yesterday’s update gold prices dropped right at the 9AM est timeframe and supported on the 1444 price support area.  Since that time, the gold market has rebounded into early Wednesday morning US trade but has yet to overcome the resistance area’s that it will need to in order to forge higher.

So far this morning, gold is tracking with equities, as the fear of slowing was at least part of the reason behind the aggressive selling in markets on Tuesday. The markets opened

The trade bounced higher on improved US retail sales release this morning, as investment demand for gold is likely to remain somewhat dependant on the prospect of inflation, which in turn can be dependant on the pace of the economy.  Business Inventories were up .5%
The key will be whether the stock market and gold will be able to hold those early gains as the day wears on.

The pressure for USA to work the budget deficit has President Obama addressing the nation this afternoon after the metals market close. Tax hikes and healthcare cuts are the speculation going into the speech –and as news trickles out  there is speculation of 100-150 billion dollar cuts in military spending proposed and entitlement spending.  Expectations are to suggest curbing domestic spending …. all the usual “talk” that one would expect.  This expectation might act to quell the upside on gold today going into the speech.

While the gold market saw evidence of rising gold production at Fresnillo in the first quarter, that news was offset by expectations of lower annual 2011 gold production from Kingsgate.

The gold market might also be garnering some lift from a survey released overnight that suggested many think central banks will be net buyers of gold in the near future. With the US Beige book, US retail sales up .04% , a Treasury auction and a Presidential speech/testimony today the gold market looks to have an active trade today.

The Dollar is near unchanged levels against most of the major currencies during overnight trading and is just sitting at the on the index.

The Spanish Prime Minister stated that China has reaffirmed their support for purchasing Spanish sovereign debt. Euro zone Industrial Production during February was up 0.4%, lower than projections. UK Unemployment during February was 7.8%, lower than forecasts. French CPI during March was up 2.2% year-on-year, higher than expectations. The second leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 10-Year Note auction, will have data announced at 1:00 PM EST

Going to the charts:

Yesterday low at 1444 was a retest of the breakout price we had been watching last week.  We can see on the chart that today’s price has moved back above that red trend line and price is hanging around that line as it tries to make it support.   So we could see a lot of price activity mostly in the 1453-1463 area today.

Support is the 1444-1450 area and resistance is the 1463-1468 zone.

In summary — markets may pullback from their early morning start and drift sideways as we approach the presidents speech on deficit reduction. As long as price is above the red trend line — its trying to forge support from yesterday’s pullback.   The lower PURPLE line is key to this price breakout and price needs to retain closes above the 1425-1430 area to keep the price  breakout move alive.

by Bill Downey

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Gold still to outperform commodities reckons Broker

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

The interaction of the world’s markets plays an important role in the fluctuations and evolution of the Gold Price. Politics, economic policies and strategies, world events and currency changes can all have an effect on the demand for Gold as investors, private and institutional look to protect their wealth resources. At we champion the safe haven that gold and gold coin investment can offer in these troubled ecomonic circumstances where we have rising inflation, instability across the world and are on the verge of a new period of severe financial crisis.
Here’s a snapshot update from our regular expert analyst Bill Downey who explains where the gold price is, where it might be going and some of the factors that are affecting it.

In Tuesday nights website update — initial resistance in gold was listed at 1464-1468 and the high so far is 1467. Second tier resistance for today was listed at 1474-1478 — and that would be the area to watch if we can continue to move higher today.

Initial support was listed at 1444-1455 and the low so far today is 1453.60

London Gold Fix $1461.25 -$8.25

While the June gold contract saw an initial downtrend overnight, gold prices have recovered above the prior session’s closing value in the early Tuesday US trade action. Gold appears to be partially undermined by declining oil prices and a dampening of overall inflationary fears.

News that a major commodity trading brokerage firm was recommending profit taking in commodities, may also be undermining the gold market slightly. However, another key brokerage firm suggested that gold would outperform most commodities directly ahead and that might help gold prices stand up to the partial liquidation wave in some commodity prices.
Indian gold prices were slightly weaker overnight and news of another quake in Japan applied some minor pressure to gold and other commodity prices overnight. While the trade balance report from the US can drive gold prices, expectations for a slight narrowing of the US trade deficit might be seen as a negative to gold prices, especially if that report lifts the greenback and adds pressure to the bond market. If that would be the case — we think it would be temporary. The US dollar is under pressure again today and the Euro has now traded at the 145 level — a very IMPORTANT price point.

While the gold market generally saw dovish comments from the Fed yesterday, dialogue from the Fed’s Hoenig today might be add to the downside tilt as they are trying to “TALK” their way into making the markets think that there is not going to be more stimulus. So that is the one thing that could return gold to testing the lower areas from last night.

Equity markets in Asia and Europe were weaker during overnight trading and early indications are for the US stock market to open today’s session with moderate losses as Alcoa reported lower than expected earnings and Japan raised the danger level of its on-going crisis. The Japanese Economics Minister said that last month’s earthquake and tsunami would likely have a larger negative impact on the Japanese economy than earlier projections. A proposal by the African Union to end the Libyan conflict was rejected by rebel forces. The German CPI during March was up 2.1% year-on-year, in line with forecasts. A survey of German economic sentiment during April was 7.1, lower than estimates. The UK CPI during March was 4.0% year-on-year, lower than projections. The UK Trade during February was 6.78 billion Pounds, a smaller deficit than forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the February International Trade Balance, as well as Export and Import Prices at 7:30 AM, and surveys of store sales will also be released during the session. In addition, Fed Regional President Dudley will give a speech during the session. The first leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 3-Year Note auction, will have results announced at 12:00 PM CENTRAL time.

Going to the gold charts:

Last nights low was right at the dotted trend line on 30 min chart we published on the website and as long as the 1444-1455 area holds the trend remains up. The market is NOT AS BULLISH as it looked when we entered the week — and even though gold has come back 13 dollars from the low — we’re not out of the woods just yet on this pullback. The 1468-1470 area is probably the most important price point to watch today. We want to see gold above 1468 on a closing basis to add more potential that the pullback is complete. Until then — we can’t rule out more downside pressure today.

It seems like the 9am-10:30AM EST period today might be where the rubber meets the road — and that time frame is when gold would be the most likely to try and pullback.

In summary — the trend is still up —but not as solid as last week– the 1468-1470 area is resistance. Support is the 1444-1455 area. We still favor the bulls —- but we might remain in the 1450-1470 area today in price.

by Bill Downey

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People often ask if it is the right time to buy gold?

Quite simply it is always the right time to buy gold if you are looking to protect and preserve your wealth.

Sure the price can vary but the real value in owning physical gold is that it is your outright property which cannot be wiped out during a crisis or financial collapse. So think of a stocks and shares investment (or any other “paper” investment) the day after a crash – now think of physical, tangible gold assets that you own the day after a crash. The difference is obvious – one is worthless and may even lead to debt, the other has inherent value that will still be sought and can therefore be traded or sold.

Buying gold nowadays is simple and accessible to everyone.

You do not need to physically possess gold at home to fully participate, indeed quite the contrary – keep it safe, keep it in a vault and keep it accessible to sell whenever you choose.

For further information click here.

Gold set to Breakout, Dollar takes a dive

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

Here at we regulalrly feature expert Analysis from Bill Downey of to keep readers up to date with possible moves in the market.

Bill’s comments are drawn from a wide variety of sources and provide an up to date overview of the evolution of the gold price.

Here what Bill is saying:

In Sunday nights website update — resistance for today was listed at 1483-1490 and the high so far is 1476.50 — support was listed at 1458-1463 and the low so far is 1464.50

London Gold Fix $1469.50 -$1.00

Late Sunday night in the US and early in the Asian Monday trade saw commodities on the rise. However, news of a possible Peace deal in Libya and another 7.1 earthquake in Japan seemed to prompt a pause in oil price upside and in other commodity markets.

News of ongoing inflows into gold derivatives at the end of last week is lending to gold support so its generally a sideways choppy action we are undergoing this morning. The reversal in oil prices seemed to shift the attitude in a number of commodity markets this morning to a more sideways movement. With the big rise last Friday in commodities, it looks to be profit taking at the moment and not a start of a downtrend.

The Bretton Woods meeting hosted by George Soro’s over the weekend has calls for the US dollar replacement — but that was to be expected. The G20 meets in Washington DC on the 15th of the month and it would be interesting to hear the conversations that will take place there. With that meeting coming up at the end of the week — it is possible that gold may stay have some restraint later in the week, but the overall short term trend is still up.

The US Dollar is slightly bouncing this morning back to the 75 level but remains at key levels on the long term charts.

The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 5th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 230,758 contracts, an increase of 16,775 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 287,091 contracts, an increase of 23,006 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 56,332 contracts, an increase of 6,229 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 287,090 contracts. This represents an increase of 23,004 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

A 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit near the Tokyo area today, causing water pumping at the Fukushima plant to be shut down for 50 minutes. Major banks in the UK were told to raise their capital levels and separate their retail operations from investment banking activities. Chinese Exports during March were up 35.8% year-on-year, while Chinese Imports during March were up 27.3% year-on-year, both of which were above market expectations.

Going to the gold chart — the breakout from a five month trading range last week is in play and while there is consolidation today from last Friday’s upmove — it does not look like a downtrend is beginning at the moment.

A new red line on the chart shows the short term FIRST support for this weeks action near the 1455 area on a closing basis. Additional support would be the 1444-1450 area on intra day pullbacks. THus the two key areas are the red trend line —and the lower purple line on the up channel. As long as price is above those price areas — the trend remains up. Resistance is the upper purple line near the 1490 – 1492 area.

In summary, todays consolidation in the 1460 area is normal after a nice upmove from last Friday and the bulls still have the short term advantage. First support will be the Red trend line — and resistance for the remainder of today looks to be in the 1473-1478 area. A pullback in the 1445-1455 area this week might provide an area for finding initial support. The bulls still have the advantage at the moment and the action does not at this point indicate that the trend has turned down — but rather is consolidating in the 1460 zone.

by Bill Downey

Don’t forget Exclusive Free trial to Goldcoin readers on Gold
Login: demo-feb Password: spot2see

The most detailed info that publishes is available on the web site via paid subscription.

People often ask if it is the right time to buy gold?

Quite simply it is always the right time to buy gold if you are looking to protect and preserve your wealth.

Sure the price can vary but the real value in owning physical gold is that it is your outright property which cannot be wiped out during a crisis or financial collapse. So think of a stocks and shares investment (or any other “paper” investment) the day after a crash – now think of physical, tangible gold assets that you own the day after a crash. The difference is obvious – one is worthless and may even lead to debt, the other has inherent value that will still be sought and can therefore be traded or sold.

Buying gold nowadays is simple and accessible to everyone.

You do not need to physically possess gold at home to fully participate, indeed quite the contrary – keep it safe, keep it in a vault and keep it accessible to sell whenever you choose.

For further information click here.

Gold on the Up, Dollar going down – says Bill

Friday, April 8th, 2011

The Trend for Gold continues upward and the Dollar is falling again – so says Bill Downey of, our regular expert Analyst. Her’s the latest from Bill for April 8th:
In last nights website update initial resistance was listed at 1462-1468 and the high so far is 1473. Support was listed at 1443-1449 and the low so far is 1466.

London Gold Fix $1470.50 +$14.00

The June gold contract in the early Friday action has moved to fresh new all time highs. In addition to ongoing concern of a US government shutdown, the gold market also saw a sharp range down extension in the Dollar overnight and therefore the bulls have a lot of fundamental arguments for the upside. In addition to the potential failure to reach a budget deal, the gold market might also be rising off the fact that the US budget cuts are minimal in the grand scheme of the multi-trillion dollar US budget! In other words, leaving US government spending high and the deficit growing is seen as an inflationary development, and as a development that weakens the Dollar and lastly increases the move to quality sentiment in the gold market off the rising prospect of a US credit rating downgrade. Those same ratings agencies that were grilled by Congress over their slack pre-sub prime ratings efforts, should probably slap US debt with a downgrade once the puny US spending cuts are put in perspective.

While the gold market could have been held back by news of a rise in Gold Fields quarterly gold production for their 1st quarter, that potential production gain actually follows a decline in gold production from that company in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, the gold market hasn’t paid that much attention to the supply side of the equation recently.

With some budget negotiators calling for a mid morning deadline on a deal this morning, there could be two volatility events today, one this morning and another into the afternoon closes in the event that no deal is reached.

The Dollar has GAPPED lower against most of the major currencies during overnight trading as the credibility is fast eroding and the break at the price chart is causing selling and shorting. Problems in Libya and Nigeria as well as escalations in Syria and the middle east continue to add pressure on oil prices as well.

In summary — the metals continue higher as the gold breakout of a five month pattern is suggesting the move will continue higher. We may see some traders taking some profits off the table as we go into the weekend —and that could keep prices range bound going into 11:30AM est as London comes up on the close — but there seems to be buyers in the mid 1460’s.

Support for the remainder of the day is the 1457-1464 and resistance is the 1475-1480 area.

Going to the gold chart, the consolidation over the past few days has held the initial breakout and the upside continues to be favored. The next upside target is the upper purple line near the 1500 area. Pullbacks today should be limited to the mid 1460’s. As long as price is within the purple channel lines — the trend remains up.

If the US government come to terms later today — it could produce some volitility — but the bottom line is that none of the problems are going away — deal or no deal.

A CLOSE ABOVE 1466 is an important number today to set the pace for next week. The trend remains up.

by Bill Downey

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"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."