During World War II the British sovereign was the only tangible and reliable currency in Greece and they were hoarded and hidden in every conceivable place. A girls dowry would often include a cache of sovereigns.  They were parachuted in to fund the Greek resistance to the German occupation. War is a crisis but now the Greek population face the crisis of being unable to repay its debts and once again they turn to the sovereign as the currency of choice.

It is remarkable and a tribute to the sovereign that it remained legal currency long after the war due to the unstable drachma until eventually in 1965  the Greek government placed restrictions on trading resulting in many hoarders cashing in their stocks. Even so at the slightest hint of uncertainty, and there have been many, the Greeks turned to their favourite foreign gold coin.

Greece has not really had a true period of financial stability for decades and markets are wondering whether they will default on repaying their debt given past behaviour  so the uncertainties  are understandable. The population is in panic resorting to strikes and riots and fear that Greece may leave the eurozone.

Once again  have returned to their known safe haven, the sovereign, as a hedge against financial collapse causing the the demand to increase year on year and the price to rise dramatically. For weeks citizens have been queueing at Athens central bank to buy sovereigns and have been prepared to pay the highest prices. It is estimated that in the first 4 months of the year 50,000 sovereigns were sold legally and as the demand increased so did the black market  and at least 100,000 were sold illegally with price up to €300 (£252).  The uncertainty and fear has driven people to pay a huge premium of almost 40% over the current value of the gold content to protect their wealth.

Without doubt the British sovereign has been the gold coin that has world wide recognition as mechanism for survival  whether it be a financial or physical crisis – see our article “Gold sovereigns open doors”

Maurice Hall

The half sovereign is a British gold coin with a face value half that of a sovereign: equivalent to half a pound sterling, ten shillings, or 120 old pence. Since the end of the gold standard until 2000, with the exception of 1982, it has been issued only in limited quantities as a commemorative coin with a sale price and resale value far in excess of its face value.

The half sovereign was first introduced in 1544 under Henry VIII. After 1604, the issue of half sovereigns, along with gold sovereigns, was discontinued until 1817, following a major revision of British coinage. Production continued until 1926 and in Australia’s Perth mint until 1933 and, apart from special issues for coronation years, was not restarted until 1982 and then only as a proof issue

During Victorian times the half sovereign was more widely circulated than the full sovereign. The average life of both a sovereign and the half sovereign was around 15 years before it fell below the lowest legal weight. It is estimated that only 1% of all gold sovereigns that have ever been minted are still in collectable condition In 1891 a proclamation was made that members of the general public could hand in any gold coins that were underweight and have them replaced by full weight coins. Any gold coin struck before 1837 also ceased to be legal tender. This recycled gold was subsequently reminted into 13,680,486 half sovereigns in 1892 and 10,846,741 sovereigns in 1900.

In 1982 2.5 million coins were issued and mostly throughout history the design has followed the full sovereign with the reverse side, featuring the famous and beautiful St. George slaying a dragon designed by Benedetto Pistrucci, whose initials appear to the right of the date. There were variations on the reverse with royal shield and the simplified George and dragon. There were only proof issue until 2000 when bullion production commenced.

1989 marked the 500 year anniversary of the first gold half sovereign ever issued, for Henry VII in 1489. The entire design, including the lettering, in a style inspired by the original 1489 sovereigns. The obverse design is Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, seated enthroned, facing forwards and the reverse a crowned shield at the centre of a Tudor rose. Again this design, and the lettering, are in a style similar to that on the very first gold sovereign issues. A total of 23,471 coins were produced in individual and coin sets. This proof issue and a single date issue makes it doubly attractive to collectors  thus  it attracts a high premium.

There is good availability of the half sovereign with some rare issues and they are popular as a first entry into gold coins or to purchase as memento. Because they are quite small many half sovereigns have been mounted in jewllery either as rings or pendants. In general you would expect to extra premium on the half sovereign as is the norm with most small coins and on occasions that is true. The average over the last month was 7.5%  but here are also some huge spikes in the premium differential such as in October 2009 where the premium was over 90% so it is a coin that needs to be watched carefully. Of course as the half sovereign is a gold coin of  legal tender it is not subject to VAT or Capital Gains Tax

Specifications

Isambard Kingdom Brunel in 1843, while performing a conjuring trick for the amusement of his children, he accidentally swallowed a half-sovereign coin which became lodged in his windpipe. A special pair of forceps failed to remove it, as did a machine to shake it loose devised by Brunel himself. Eventually, at the suggestion of Sir Marc, IKB was strapped to a board, turned upside-down, and the coin was jerked free.

Maurice Hall

If you search the web for information on when and how to buy gold and in what format you will get a wealth of advice on both the indicators and how to get the best return on your investment.  You may also see warnings from fake coins, tungsten in gold bars to loss of value on resale as dealers take there cut.  More of this later as there are certainly pitfalls that are easily avoided.

You may be driven to gloom and despair when you come across many hypotheses on the dangers of Fiat currency, whereby central banks are printing money and devaluing currencies be that USD, GBP or the Euro. You will certainly not be comforted by articles on Sovereign Debt £1.4 trillion coming up in the UK, the greater and more dangerous debts of the US, Japan, and the current difficulties with Greece, Italy,  Spain and Portugal in the Euro zone. We have already seen the collapse of Iceland and some former eastern European countries and Ireland on the brink (UK citizens who hold money in our Post Office should be aware that this is directly with the Bank of Ireland who is now 1.9 billion in debt). If you delve further you will see more political manoeuvring in the East and Russia, where there is a drive to move away from the USD as the reserve currency, additionally China has a long term strategy for financial domination. You may be forgiven for feeling that the world as we know it will come to a halt as you listen to many experts predicting an inevitable systemic crisis that would make  2008 pale into insignificance and global contagion would cause capitalism itself to collapse.

I am not saying we should ignore those warnings, far from it but the optimist would have some faith that the western world could stabilise, otherwise we will not be concerned with gold and money but food and weapons, and yes you will find that advice already common amongst the growing number of survivalists in the USA.  There will no doubt be rocky roads to follow, financial difficulties, pressures on currencies, but currency is not money.  There is no doubt that many people will be looking for a safe haven, an insurance policy and the only world wide respected haven is gold.  This gold must not be in the form stocks, un allocated gold at a bank or certificates but physical gold which is tangible either held secured at your residence or in a vault where you own it.  Even the survivalists after the guns and ammo recognise that a stash of gold coins would be necessary as a medium to exchange for supplies.

I would say that the majority of investors are optimistic enough to believe that we will overcome a financial crisis to a greater or lesser extent and not be plunged back into the third world. There is no doubt that we are in an investor “safe haven” and even the most optimistic are and should be hedging by diversifying part of their portfolio into gold.  We in the UK have always believed in our currency otherwise we would be part of the Euro zone, we have not been successfully invaded for almost 1000 years hence we have no country wide safe haven investment history. Twenty two miles across the channel, our nearest neighbour France, following a century of invasion, dramatic devaluation understand the safe haven that gold provides.  Families have survived through crisis because they put their wealth into gold napoleons and today French citizens have 3000 tonnes held privately in gold coins. Should a new crisis occur then many French families will be able to ride out the storm whereas hardly any in the UK would be in a similar position. There is a lesson to be learned here.

I have researched long and hard and think I understand the drivers, the risks the patterns.  The case for owning gold is clear but investors will always be looking for Return On Investment so clearly the timing of buying and selling is essential.  We saw in December 2009 the gold spot touch $1227 per ounce and is now holding around $1100. Where will it go is the big question and what are the drivers and is their anything to be gleaned historically or seasonally.

Let’s take a look at the drivers that keep the price low:

• The West has become complacent and does not have the level fear of financial crisis that it perceived a few months ago. The truth is that we are not out of the crisis the economy is recovering very slowly and is very volatile and we have the £1.4 trillion sovereign debt to face
• The West although no longer fearing a crisis is still tightening is belt and there is not the money around to spend particularly on jewellery. People are taking note of the volatility, companies who have vacancies are fearful of taking on new staff and unemployment is still a huge issue
• The USD has been relatively strong recently and as we al know a strong dollar weakens the gold price. Interestingly the GBP and Euro price has risen from the all time high dollar spot price due to weakening exchange rates.
• India’s private demand dropped in 2009 as people did not buy as much jewelry due to the high price although India’s central bank bought 200 Tonnes off the IMF to back its international commitments
• China is now the largest consumer and the greatest producer of gold but is playing a very political game as it is determined to increase its reserves and shed dollar assets but it does not want to do anything to increase the price of gold or weaken the dollar while it holds $2 trillion of dollar assets
• It is believed if demand continues at the current rate it will not overstretch supply.

What will drive the price up?

• At some point inflation will incur and the dollar will weaken as more money is printed
• It is likely that there will be another financial crisis that will send all the gold bugs scuttling to protect their wealth
• China, Russia and India will take up any slack in demand particularly China who want to increase their gold reserve but also have encouraged their citizens to save gold
• Central banks do not find holding foreign currencies attractive so they can only turn to gold
• There is a finite supply of gold all that has been produce in the world to date would fit in a 20m cube. It is more difficult and costly to mine and the ability to supply is falling off.

The new drive will come from the East as their central banks diversify from dollar assets and the new found prosperity of their consumers will lead to purchase of gold for jewellery and investment. Eastern currencies will appreciate as the dollar losses its status thus driving up the price in dollars over a period of time.

When is gold bought and sold?

• Seasonally – Over the last 30 years the gold price has been at lowest with remarkable consistence in the northern hemisphere summer as European jewellery fabricators and customers are on vacation with the biggest drive in the fourth quarter. This coincides with harvest and wedding festivals in the East. On average throughout this period gold bought in summer turned profitable by the end of the year. Professionals tend to sell at the beginning of the year.
• Historically – Gold has reached a high in cycles followed by quite severe corrections and periods of consolidation. In fact in the last several years gold’s peak highs have followed a super cycle of around 22 months.  Gold reached its famous high in 1980 at $850 which equates to around $2200 when adjusted for inflation so there is a very strong argument that gold still has a long way to go before it reaches its previous high and now we have in addition Russia, China and India as major players. Bearing in mind that cycles constrict and expand please look at the chart below where the next predicted super cycle high will be around 21 months from the high in December 2009 and that will be Q4 2011 and this also coincides with the seasonal trend.

When to buy and when to sell:

All the indicators point a period of consolidation, both seasonally and historically gold should reach a 2010 low in July to August probably $1050 – $1060 and that is probably the time to buy. Do not expect  an immediate significant rise but the trends show that there will be an increase towards the end of the year and probably another period of consolidation in early 2011 so time to hold your nerve.  Late in 2011 the seasonal and the super cycle trends combine and we shall reach the next peak. Conservatively that would be in excess of $1300 but many experts are expecting the next peak to be $1500 or higher. If you are a speculator you may want to take your profit now but if you consider your gold to be your insurance policy then you will hold on to it. If you are in the later category then you will hold your gold until there is a stabilisation and that would not happen until we stop printing currency and take our contractory medicine. See the article on When should we sell gold for more details

What to buy and how?

I mentioned in the opening paragraph that there are pitfalls to avoid and it is not too difficult. Apart from fakes, which can easily be avoided by using reputable sources and not trusting to buying through private individuals through auction site, everything else is designed to take away you profit.

Buy:

• Investment gold(1) to avoid VAT
• Investment gold to include in your SIPP so the UK government will pay you back 20% or 40% depending on your income tax bracket
• Legal tender gold coins(Sovereigns and Britannias) to avoid Capital Gains Tax on profit
• From a reputable source

Avoid:

• Dealers or companies that charge a high premium
• Proof coins that can have a premium of almost twice the gold value
• Any gold coins that demand a high initial premium
• Numismatic coins as they are best left to the experts in that field
• Large bars that are difficult to liquidate
• Removing your gold from the professional system as it immediately depreciates by 10-15%

Sovereign Elizabeth II Obverse

Buying gold bullion is good because the premium is low but we would recommend gold investment coins and in particular semi numismatic coins can attract a premium differential over the gold price particularly in times of crisis. Coins have greater liquidity than bullion bars which can be difficult to split.There is  quite a choice  and that may be appropriate to the country in which you live. The Krugerand is one of the oldest and well known bullion coins and can be purchased with little premium over a bullion bar. In the UK, the British sovereign is in my opinion is the best investment,  ”safe haven” and emergency coin in the world and can be bought at very little premium from the right source with added attraction of owning a beautiful historic coin with aesthetic value.

There is clearly a case for a platform that enables the discerning investor to incorporate the factors that removes the risk and reduces purchase premium and commissions to the minimum. This mechanism did not exist until a unique platform was developed to enable the buying and selling of gold in real time with best prices and secure storage,  in France in 2008 AuCOFFRE.com.  The  UK website is currently under development and will be available very soon.

(1) Investment gold is

(a) gold of a purity not less than 995 thousandths that is in the form of a bar, or a  wafer, of a weight accepted by bullion markets or:

(b) a gold coin minted after 1800 that:

¨ is of a purity of not less than 900 thousandths

¨ is, or has been, legal tender in its country of origin; and

¨ is of a description of a coin that is normally sold at a price that does not exceed 180% of the open market value of the gold contained in the coin; or:

(c)  an investment coin as specified in Notice 701/21A Investment gold coins.

Maurice Hall

We need to understand the difference between money and currency as one is real and the other a promise.  Money can be defined as a medium of exchange and a store of value and until fairly recent times was in fact coins made out of precious metal with an intrinsic value or for ease of use, notes backed by precious metal.

Money, when considered as the fruit of many years’ industry, as the reward of labor, sweat and toil, as the widow’s dowry and children’s portion, and as the means of procuring the necessaries and alleviating the afflictions of life, and making old age a scene of rest, has something in it sacred that is not to be sported with, or trusted to the airy bubble of paper currency. Thomas Paine (1737 – 1809)

Currency is still a medium of exchange but is not a store of value as it only derives its value by government degree or “fiat”. It’s value is based on the issuing the authority’s guarantee to pay the stated (face) amount on demand, and not on any intrinsic worth or extrinsic backing. All national currencies in circulation, issued and managed by the respective central banks, are fiat currencies.

A days wages in Germany 1923

The problem is that fiat currency runs the risk of central bankers printing too much and causing large inflation or worse. The more that is printed the more the currency is debased just as the Fed is doing now with the dollar. This has been going on for decades with central banks indiscriminately creating money to cover expenditure and ever increasing debt.  There are examples throughout history and in the 20^th Century most of us are aware that in Germany in 1923 it would take a barrow load of Deutschmarks to buy a loaf of bread but an ounce of gold could buy a reasonable house and one dollar was worth 4 trillion marks

This irresponsible printing of money has eaten away at the value of the world’s reserve currency the USD dollar and dollar based assets, to such an extent that they have lost 82% of value since 1971, the year the US cut links with the gold standard. The GBP has fared even worse that the USD losing around 85% of value since 1971.   There are many illustrations of then and now and how owning gold with intrinsic value would have more purchasing pro rata than currency. E.g the latest model Cadillac Eldorado would have taken 180 ounces of gold at $42.02 to pay the showroom price of $7,546. This same 180 ounces is now worth over $200k and would buy two Cadillac convertibles with enough left over to fuel to first service. In the UK an average family car cost £1000 around 60 oz of gold and now the same would cost £17000 around 23 oz of gold. The 60 ounces would have bought the same family car for you a sports car for your wife and a hatchback for your son or daughter. Gold retains its purchasing power year after year.

Not long ago the gold standard imposed monetary discipline on countries as they had to hold enough gold to cover the money in circulation but this all changed with the Jamaica agreement in 1971 when the decision was taken by President Nixon on the 15th August 1971 to suspend the direct convertibility of dollars into gold, the keystone of the financial system created in July 1944 (the Bretton Woods Agreement).  On the 1st October 1971 the general assembly of the IMF asked the board of trustees to study and propose a comprehensive reform.  This would be adopted by member States during a meeting held in Kingston (Jamaica) on the 7th and 8th January 1976, and included a set of provisions which put an end to the reign of gold.  The US money supply in 1971 was $776 billion and quickly became an upward curve which rose dramatically over the last decade where the US money supply doubled from below $7 trillion to $14.3 trillion indicating that spending is out of control.

What is the effect as the US and other governments including the UK go on this spending spree. It means that the risk of sovereign debt default becomes very high indeed. We have already seen Iceland’s debt rise to 7 times GDP and then go into financial melt down and economic depression. This is a warning and recently Greece has been the sick man of the Euro world  with its debt forecast to reach 130% of GDP, its credit rating cut, the country in turmoil and it has placed pressure on the Euro itself.  The UK has not reached that level yet, but we are heading that way with debt estimated to be 65% of GDP this year and a forecast for 78% by 2015.  Japan the world’s second largest economy has debt of twice its GDP but continues to spend. In the Euro zone Spain, Italy, Portugal former Eastern European countries all face serious financial issues.

Most worrying is that the US, whose dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, has debts of 100% of GDP and budget deficits over the next few years will send that figure soaring. Their solution instead of cutting expenditures is create more fiat currency which will inevitably lead to devaluation of the dollar.  There are already moves afoot to seek alternatives lead by Russia and China and gold has featured in their strategies. China’s long term goal is to dominate financially and replace the US and they are currently playing a political game as they have up to 2 trillion in dollar assets that they do not want to destroy but off load at the best value.

It comes as no surprise that both China and Russia are increasing their gold reserves along with India who recently bough 200 tonnes from the IMF to back its financial commitments. China is now the worlds largest producer of gold and has recently surpassed India as the worlds greatest consumer and actively encourage their citizens to put part of their savings into gold.  China has a predicament in that it wants its central bank to diversify into gold without increasing the gold price and to shed dollar assets without devaluing the dollar so they are building reserves from internal sources and buying small quantities during price dips.  The UK made a very bad move when Gordon Brown sold off 395 tonnes of gold a decade ago when gold was at less than 25% of todays value. In light of the of the world economic situation this was doubly bad as gold reserves are more important than ever.

In summary:

• Currency is not money and its value can be changed by monetary policy makers
• Currency can be created and printed at will with no substance to support it
• Currency depreciation in value is accelerating with subsequent loss of purchasing power
• National debt is increasing to disastrous levels with threat of sovereign debt default
• Confidence in the  USD is waning and its use as a reserve currency is under threat
• Countries and investors are shedding their dollar assets
• Central Banks are diversifying into gold and out of dollar assets
• Smart investors are diversifying their portfolios with a proportion of gold
• The value of gold has been consistent in retaining its purchasing power
• Gold is insurance for your wealth
• Gold is the only real money

The price of gold rose to its all time high in December 2009 to $1212 an ounce and since then it dropped to a low of $1048 but now is in a period of consolidation of just above $1100 which follows a pattern that has been consistent over the last decade. It is likely that we will face another financial crisis due  irresponsible printing of currency, the risk of sovereign debt and political pressure. Of the millions of investors throughout the world only a tiny proportion see gold other than as a commodity. Central banks have seen the need to diversify into gold. The discerning investor understands that apart from ROI gold is a protection for wealth and the person who holds gold will see out a crisis and that has been proved time and again throughout history.  Once a greater proportion of investors become educated in the need to diversify, as they inevitably will, the price of gold will rocket.  Now is the time to protect your wealth in the safest investment – GOLD and I would recommend that you invest in the form of gold coins and in the UK gold sovereigns.

For details of the worlds most popular investment coins http://goldcoin.org/investment-coins/

Maurice Hall

Now that gold is in a consolidation phase it is time to take the opportunity to review your assets  and understand the real advantage that they have given you is  ”life insurance ” .  For those that already own gold coins and know the many advantages of them, it’s time to strengthen your holdings.

We have heard people say “Personally I think that the price of gold will continue to drop because of all this news about a recovery.”  Recovery? What recovery?  The recovery of city traders’ morale because they have been offered two or three jobs a day for the past few months?  The recovery of your bank manager’s morale now that he is able to do his job like he did “before“?  No one has spoken to me about a recovery.  The budgets of many companies are still frozen as they wait for better days.  The bank accounts of some are nearly empty and uncertainties about their employees’ jobs have never been so great.  The global debt situation is frightening and the UK national debt is reaching dangerous heights, estimated at £1.1 trillion next year. In summary, nothing has been settled and we are currently navigating through a period of uncertainty, a vast smoke cloud. Most experts agree that gold is in a period of correction that falls into a pattern that has been repeated through out the last decade. There will be consolidation and that could be around $1100 an ounce and that will be followed by a rise of anywhere between $1300- $1500 by the end of the year.

To continue with this metaphor, the house is on fire in the basement but there is still time for those who don’t have any insurance to take some out.  The structure has been affected but there are still embers alive here and there and no one really knows where and how to extinguish them.  You can even consider yourself lucky because you know that the house could soon burn down entirely.

In this context, buying gold is a bit like placing Pascal’s wager: by not having it you have everything to lose.  By having it the worst possibility is that you will keep it and have to catch up on the rest (stocks, property etc.) Or put another way “Gold is not an investment, it doesn’t earn anything.  It’s a security blanket when monetary markers disappear.  Which is the biggest risk: having gold or not having gold? Not having it of course.”  – Simone Wapier Chief editor MoneyWeek

Those who today believe that you shouldn’t buy gold because the stock market is showing signs of recovery are those that systematically buy gold when its price is rising because it is talked about on the TV who sell when the price is dropping because no one is talking about it anymore.  In short, the same people who systematically lose on shares because they apply the same strategy to their stock portfolio. The simple chart shows a typical investment  cycle where the heavy public buying is a result of  greed and and the selling follows fear and despair but the overall trend is upwards for the discerning investor who holds his nerve.  Gold is still at this time the preferred investment of contrarians even if others are discovering its qualities.

Today, the price of gold coins means they are still worth purchasing, particularly because Napoleons have a premium of less than 5% and Krugerrands have a premium of between 5 and 7% as have sovereigns if bought from the right source.

All gold coins are not equal depending on what you want to do and where the coins are located and where you live.  You must choose coins that correspond with your profile and you must know how to diversify. Coins are also global and it pays to understand how coins are bought and sold in other countries and how profit can be made outside of your own country. We have this international experience.

Generally in Britain we should buy sovereigns, Britannias as they are our national coins and free from both VAT and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) but we may also consider the Kruggerand but accept CGT will have to be paid on profit.  However, we should be aware of the vibrant gold coin market in France where we can take advantage of their obsession with Napoleons where the premiums will rise at the slightest hint of any trouble. People who live in France  should buy Napoleons, also we have advised them to buy Tunisian 20 Franc coins (not sought after in France therefore a low premium potential in France) because they have a second home in Tozeur, in the middle of the Tunisian desert (place where the premium for this coin will be higher because of strong demand for gold).  We  have advised other people to buy sovereigns rather than Krugerrands because they travelled between France and China for business.

Generally speaking we advise the following:

• Medium and long term investors buying and selling in the UK should concentrate on the sovereign, Britannia or Krugerrand.  Other coins to consider internationally are the Napoleon, the Swiss 20 Franc Vreneli and the 50 Peso Centenario.  For info: the Sovereign is highly sought after in all the former British colonies but also in Germany, Greece and China. Without doubt it is the coin that has the greatest worldwide liquidity and is the coin of choice for use in an emergency and is issued by many nations armies, to personal likely to be exposed to danger. The Napoleon is essentially recognized in France, Switzerland and Belgium and could be interesting to the UK investor for the reasons above.  The Krugerrand is the international gold bullion coin and wherever you go this coin is sought after it may also be useful in shorter term investments.  The Swiss 20 Franc is the gold coin familiar to all the former investors in physical gold in particular the Germans, Swiss and French.  Finally the 50 Pesos Centenario can easily be traded for cash in all Hispanic countries.
• Those who like to play the markets and like us think that the price of gold will continue to rise and that there might be a rush on gold coins towards the end of the year, can consider the  Krugerrands which could become short in supply.  They could also follow the price of the $ 10 and $20 US  (Eagle and Double Eagle) which have very large differential premiums ( the difference between the base premium and the highest premium) and buy therefore when the premium is low (don’t expect the base premium to be lower than 10% however).  Such coins could gain or lose £40-45 in less than one day.  Finally, for those that want to play the French card, our preferred coin for trying to make a profit with is undoubtedly the 10 Franc Napoleon or the half Napoleon which can make 10 Euros in less than a day (which is enormous for a coin that is listed for around 80 Euros).  In France the half Napoleon is the coin with the highest differential premium.  But be aware, we recommend it for experts only because you have to know when to buy it at the best time (premium between 12 and 20%) and you must above all be certain of its quality (minimum VF condition)
• For Insurance, Investment and world wide liquidity and the added advantage of no Capital Gains Tax in the UK  buy the sovereign

An index of the most popular investment coins can be found at http://goldcoin.org/investment-coins/

In summary:

• You still don’t have any gold coins?
• You already have coins? Don’t sell them, strengthen your holdings.
• For the long term: Buy Sovereigns (antique but not numismatic or Elisabeth II), Napoleons, Swiss 20 Franc or 50 Pesos.
• For the short term: buy Krugerrands, $10 or $20 Eagle or double Eagle with a declining premium, or even very good quality half Napoleons when the premium is between 12 and 20%.  You know that you are taking risks with these purchases but in terms of profits you could very quickly increase your outlay.  This takes time, but you have everything to gain by monitoring the price of these coins and by creating email alerts for when a threshold (price and/or premium) is passed upwards or downwards.

You will find the following articles interesting:

• Investing with gold coins.  The novices guide – (to be posted)
• Analysis of Gold – Price consolidation

The Sovereign and Kruggerand also have internationally appeal but  the Swiss 20 Franc Vreneli, and the 50 Pesos are also interesting due to its very low premium but strictly as a long term investment for the day when everything implodes…

Updated by Maurice Hall for the UK market from an original article by Jean-Francois Faure president and founder of AuCOFFRE.com

Prior to 1860 the Germinal system was adopted to create a monetary community between Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland.  In 1803, the “germinal franc” (named after the month Germinal in the (revolutionary calendar) was established, creating a gold franc containing 290.32 mg of fine gold. From this point, gold and silver-based units circulated interchangeably on the basis of a 1:15.5 ratio between the values of the two metals (Bimetallism). This system continued until 1864, when all silver coins except the 5 franc piece were debased from 90% to 83.5% silver without the weights changing. It, however failed because these countries had to lower the fineness of their coins to curb the disappearance of silver coins.  There was no harmony between the countries.  The Swiss reduced their 2 franc coins and higher value coins to 800 thousandths.  Italy reduced their coins to 835 thousandths.  Due to the need for small coins, France overruled the Legislative Body and tentatively decided to reduce the fineness of 50 and 20 centime coins to 0.835 thousandths (law passed on the 25^th May 1864).

Belgium gold coin from Latin Monatary Union - Leopold II

The story began when Belgium adopted the French franc in 1830. Switzerland harmonized its currency to the franc in 1848 and Italy joined in 1861, both retaining the names of their national currencies but adjusting their values to match the franc. In 1865, this arrangement was formalized as the Latin Monetary Union. Greece and Bulgaria joined in 1867, and a number of states (Spain, Romania, Austria, Finland, Venezuela, Serbia, Montenegro, San Marino and the Vatican) issued currency following the conventions without officially joining the Union.

The basic idea was that each member country would have identical coinage made from gold and silver. While the names of the individual currencies were kept, the weights were identical, so 5 French francs were worth exactly the same as 5 Italian lire and could be used through the Union like national currency (minus a 1.25% handling charge). Each country could mint as many coins as it wanted, there being no risk of inflation due to the intrinsic worth of the metal. The following coins were issued throughout the Union:

Belgium used French gold for all its dealings and therefore made it legal tender in 1861.  The Belgian delegate remarked that because his country was situated between France, England, Holland and Germany it formed the perfect natural link for payments to these States.  Some were using gold and others silver.  The balance of the National Bank was suffering from the aftershocks of these actions which disrupted credit and trade.  Belgium, Italy and Switzerland therefore demanded adoption of the gold standard.  The agreement was signed reducing the fineness of coins worth less than 5 francs to 835 thousands.  The money supply was voluntarily limited.  Individuals could only make maximum payments of 50 francs.  Each country was also forbidden from printing more than 6 francs per capita.  A very simple system that Greece joined in 1868.

However, there were problems that eventually lead to failure. The exchange rate of gold to silver was fixed at 1:15.5, which soon turned out to over value silver significantly. The Union countries tried to unload their silver coins into other countries, so they could profit by turning them into gold. Speculators could buy 16 francs of silver, go to the Mint and strike four 5 franc coins which enabled them to go and buy a beautiful Napoleon. France’s gold was disappearing.

Germany shamelessly profited and benefited greatly from the situation.  German agents came to Paris and Brussels with silver ingots from the recent demonetisation of thalers and transformed them into 5 franc coins which were then converted into notes and then gold.  To put an end to these practices Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland limited (1874) and then soon after suspended (1876) the striking of écus. A larger problem was that there was also a second set of subsidiary silver coins for smaller amounts, issued by each country on its own and not fully convertible elsewhere. Even though these coins had a lower silver content than the primary coins, Union members were by law required to accept up to 100 units of them at face value per transaction, very much a loss-making proposition for the receiving side. Also, while the ending of silver convertibility stopped the minting of new silver coins, outstanding ones remained legal tender. With the advent of World War I and the massive financing strains involved, not to mention war between members of the Union, the system collapsed totally, although it remained in legal fiction until the end of the 1920s.

The United Kingdom entered discussions of  Britain joining the Latin Monetary Union. The proposal involved reducing the amount of gold in one pound sterling by less than 1% to make one pound equivalent to 25 Francs and also decimalising the currency. During the period of the Latin Monetary Union, the United Kingdom was already in a monetary union with territories now commonly known as the “Commonwealth” The gold standard of the British gold sovereign existed in these territories until the outbreak  World War I.

Maurice Hall

The British gold Sovereign has to be the most respected and secure gold coin ever issued. It has influenced important achievements in history, safeguarded any number of people and nationalities in all sorts of circumstance and has featured in comedy and fiction. Gold sovereigns were accepted as money and as payment throughout the world At the height of the British Empire they were so  powerful that they were  known as the army of St George, after the depiction of St George slaying the dragon which has been on the reverse  since 1817. The Sovereign helped create and strengthen the Empire.

WWII Survival Kit

They have been nicknamed “the gold survival coin”. As early as 1916 Pilots were supplied with gold sovereigns (for which they had to sign a form before each flight) in packets of either 4, 6, 8, or 12, depending on the perceived dangers of the mission. During World War II American and British airman and SOE operatives carried a supply of sovereigns as they could be relied on to buy the way out of trouble,  irrespective of the country in which they found themselves in difficulty. With paper currencies fluctuating wildly, SOE commandos who raided the Nazi missile base at Peenemunde in the Second World War took gold sovereigns with them as means of persuasion if captured. This inspired Ian Fleming to write them into From Russia with Love, where Q gives James Bond a special briefcase containing hidden weaponry and 50 gold sovereigns secured in the lining.
More recently many armies have included sovereigns in the survival pack, both British and American airman and Special Services had sovereigns sown into their clothing to buy emergency food, shelter, safe passage or bargaining power if confronted by unfriendly forces. In 1991 the Ministry of Defence  purchase £1 million of gold sovereigns for use in the gulf war and sold those that were returned at very good profit some years later.

It was not only allied military who believed in the power of the sovereign but in history people as diverse as the Sikh freedom fighters in the 1920’s who were opposed to British rule in India made good use of the sovereign. They concealed the coins in a pouch in their throats  and used them to bribe their way out of Prison.  The son of a wealthy industrialist residing in Thessaloniki, Macedonia recalls how his family converted their entire wealth into 3000 gold sovereigns and hid them in door frames just before the German occupation. This allowed them to survive the war without starvation as did many of their friends who did the same, but others lost their entire fortune when left with bundles of worthless Greek currency.

Many of you may remember the well loved 1960s’ BBC TV series based on the Home Guard during WWII in the seaside town of Walmington.  In the episode entitled “Miser’s Hoard”,  private Fraser the local undertaker of Scottish decent, has his life saving of hundreds of sovereigns discovered. Captain Mainwaring, who’s day job is the bank manager trys to persuade him that he should put his fortune in safety but Frazer does not trust the bank. However, his fortune becomes known to the community and he has to try and bury it at night to avoid his spying neighbors.  He would never feel safe again and would always worry his wealth would be lost. Private Frazer’s catch phrase was “Doomed, we’re doomed”

So the sovereign is the worlds most respect and liquid gold coin from, Arab souks to Punjab mountains to occupied Europe. History has proved that in time of conflict your best safeguard would be to hold some gold sovereigns. Unlike paper money they can be neither burnt, shredded or destroyed by water and will retain their value whilst the paper currency can in many circumstances become worthless. However, as private Frazer discovered, if you keep  all or part of your wealth hidden, apart from the worry of discovery, it will always be subject to exposure and loss.  Our advise would be to store any significant quantity of gold in a secure vault under your control such as those provided by AuCOFFRE.

Maurice Hall

Bank of Russia

Within its framework , the Bank of Russia issues commemorative coins made of precious and non precious metals as well as investment coins made of precious metals, which are distributed inside and outside the country. The Bank of Russia has been engaged in this work since its founding in 1992 (previously, in  1965 – 1991 commemorative and investment coins were issued by the State Bank of the USSR).

For the first time in 1996 Russian citizens were offered investment coins on domestic market, gold uncirculated Chervonets coins minted in 1975-1982 and the  silver “Sable” coin of 1995.  The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, declared on March 5, 2001, that the gold Chervonets and the silver “Sable” are legal tender in the territory of the Russian Federation.

To create conditions for gold coins to be used  as an independent instrument  for investment  the gold Chervonets, and a new 24 carat gold coin “George the Victorious” were relieved of VAT as declared in the Article 149 of the second part of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation.

The coins of the Bank of Russia are struck in the Moscow and St. Petersburg mints and have a high artistic standard and perfect striking quality. They are popular in Russia and abroad, some of them repeatedly took prizes in opinion polls  held by specialised foreign numismatic publications and organizations.

The Chervonet is gold coin that was issued both for circulation and as a trade or bullion coin. First minted in 1701 under Peter the Great. The origins of the word are derived from the word “Chervonny”, meaning in Russian literally “Red” but also “of a High Quality” and had gold composition of 0.986 and weighed 3.47 g.
The second issue was an attempt to strengthen Soviet economics with “hard” currency backed by the gold reserve but was not successful due to political reasons. These were larger and weighted 8.6 g. with a gold composition of 0.900
There was another attempt in 1925 to strike more Gold Chervonets coins, but it is believed that all but one were melted down.

From 1975 to 1982, the Soviet Union was issuing Chervonets gold coins, equal to 10 Roubles, using the old design but with the new dates in relatively modest amounts as a bullion coinage and is the only issue commonly found.

Chervonets 1976 Obverse

Chervonets – in the center – the State Emblem of the RSFSR (the abbreviation for Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic): the shield surrounded by a wreath of ears and bearing the picture of hammer and sickle against the background of sunbeams; the inscriptions along the rim framed by a circle of dots: at the top – “ПРОЛЕТАРИИ ВСЕХ СТРАН СОЕДИНЯЙТЕСЬ!” (WORKERS OF THE WOPLD, UNITE!), at the bottom, under the State Emblem – “Р.С.Ф.С.Р” (R.S.F.S.R.).

Chervonets 1976 Reverse

The picture of a peasant – sower against the background of a plough, the rising sun and factories. The inscriptions along the rim framed by a circle of dots: at the top – “ОДИН ЧЕРВОНЕЦ” (ONE CHERVONETS), at the bottom to the left – the year of issue (1975 – 1982).The edge is bearing the pressed inscription: “1 ЗОЛОТНИК 78,24 ДОЛИ ЧИСТОГО ЗОЛОТА” (1 ZOLOTNIK 78,24 PARTS OF PURE GOLD). The coins were struck by Moscow Mint (ММД) and Leningrad Mint (ЛМД).

"George the Victorious" slaying the dragon

In February 2006 a new 24 carat gold investment coin featuring the Saint Georges the Victorious was introduced  by the Bank of Russia. This is very similar to the reverse of the British Sovereign and should prove popular in the UK.  So far 1,500,000 coins have been minted.

Obverse – in the centre – the Emblem of the Bank of Russia [the two-headed eagle with wings down, lower – the semicircular inscription – «БАНК РОССИИ» (BANK OF RUSSIA)] framed by a circle of dots and inscriptions along the rim: at the top – «ПЯТЬДЕСЯТ РУБЛЕЙ» (FIFTY RUBLES), at the bottom – the year of issue «2006», the letters to the left indicate the metal sign and the fineness, to the right – the fine metal content and the mint trade mark.

The Reverse  depicts the image of St. George the Victorious sitting on horseback and slaying a dragon.

Future Mintage

In 2010, the Bank of Russian are planning to issue 700,000  of the 50 rouble St George the Victorious coins, and in 2011 they plan to issue a new design 24 carat gold coin with the same specifications to commemorate the XXII th Winter Olympic Games – 2014 in Sochi.  This will be a 50 Rouble denomination coin and the planned mintage is 2,000,000. So Russia apart from being one of the major modern players in the world gold market is planning to be much more active in the bullion coin investment market.

Specifications

Russia has also produced in modest quantities commemorative gold coins in 10,25,50 and 100 Rouble denominations with themes of the Russian Ballet (most common) , the 22nd Olympiad in Moscow,  anniversary of the Russian State Russian featuring architecture, monuments and Leo Tolstoy

Maurice Hall

Krugerrand- the first bullion coin obverse

The South African Chamber of Mines had an inspired idea to help market South African gold. It was to issue a one ounce bullion coin, to be sold at a very low premium over the intrinsic gold value. The Krugerrand was introduced in 1967, as a vehicle for private ownership of gold. It was actually intended to circulate as currency. Therefore it was minted in a more durable gold alloy ( the same as the British Sovereign), unlike most other bullion coins and contained 2.826gms of copper  to resist scratching and gives the coin its golden hue. The Krugerrand was the only accessible gold investment opportunity for the everyday buyer, it was the first coin to contain exactly one troy ounce of gold, and was intended from its inception to provide a way for the private investor to purchase gold.

Despite the coin’s legal tender status, economic sanctions against South Africa for its policy of apartheid made the Krugerrand an illegal import in many Western countries during the 1970s and 1980s. These sanctions ended when South Africa abandoned apartheid in 1994, the krugerrand once again regained it status as one of the worlds leading bullion coins

Originally only one size was issued, which contained one full troy ounce (31.1035 grams) of fine gold. This was originally known as a Krugerrand, or Kruger, for short. From 1980, three other sizes were introduced, namely a half, quarter, and tenth ounce size. The Krugerrand derives its name from combining the names of Paul Kruger, a well-known Boer leader and local hero who went on to become the last president of the Republic of South Africa, and the “rand” – the monetary unit of South Africa. The obverse side of the coin is detailed with a profiled bust of President Paul Kruger and features the name of the country, “South Africa,” in the country’s two native languages, English and Afrikaans. The reverse side of the coin features the image of a springbok antelope, one of the national symbols of South Africa.

By 1980 the Krugerrand accounted for 90% of the gold coin market. Although not a beautiful coin, many millions have been sold since its introduction as the 1 oz coin can be purchased at very little premium over gold bars. The success of the Krugerrand led to many other gold-producing nations minting their own bullion coins, such as the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf in 1979, the Australian Nugget in 1981, the British Britannia coin in 1987 and the American Gold Eagle in 1986.

The South African Mint Company produces limited edition proof Krugerrands intended as collector’s items. These coins are priced above bullion value, although non-proof Krugerrands also have a premium above gold bullion value. They can be distinguished from the bullion Krugerrands by the number of serrations on the edge of the coin. Proof coins have 220 while bullion coins have 180.

Maurice Hall

Don’t be put off by last weeks sell off in gold as it was not physical gold that was sold but paper gold.  No one sold their sovereigns, eagles ,napoleons, kuggerands.  Nor did the Chinese, Indian or Russians sell gold from their national vaults. Do not think we are about to experience a reversal in value of gold.  World output of gold has declined by 1 million ounces annually since 2001.

All indications are that we should expect an impending gold shortage. Total ETF holdings of the yellow metal now exceed total world production. South Africa suffered its steepest decline in gold production since 1901, falling 14%, to a mere 232 tons. It now ranks only third in global production of the yellow metal, after China and the US.

Here’s a chart that goes back over 30 years. It’s clear that gold output from South Africa is steadily falling and the rest of the world has not yet taken up the slack.
South African mines are, overall, getting so deep, hot and dangerous that they are on the edge of a major rapid decline in gold output. Rising production costs have driven the global breakeven cost of new gold production up to $500 an ounce. It takes a lot of labor, fuel, and heavy machinery to get gold out of the ground, and none of these are getting any cheaper.

Political risks are heating up. In the meantime, the financial crisis has driven a surge to the safety  of physical gold pushing demand for gold bars and coins to all time highs. The big gold players China, India and Russia are building their reserves so that they can meet international commitments with gold as they are carefully moving away from the waning USD, the fallback international currency.

Last year, the US Treasury ran out of blanks for one ounce $50 American Gold Eagle coins and major mints in Europe reported dramatic increases in production in the latter half of 2009. This shows that American citizens are waking up to the need to own some gold and when they are fully awake it will drive a  huge increase in demand. Some  European countries and notably the French, are fully aware of the power of gold and in particular gold coins, that hedged currency devaluations and political turmoil throughout  the 20th century. Consequently they continue to put their faith in gold to hedge financial instability in the 21st.  Competitive devaluations by most central banks mean that currencies are not performing as the hedge that many had hoped. It all has the makings of serious gold shortage for the future. The current downturn has to be just a blip in the long term bull market.

Now is the time to carefully watch the spot price as it is possible that gold may fall as low as $1030  and that will be time to buy, as it is predicted that we could be seeing $1500 the fourth quarter as demand increases.

Britannia gold bullion coin 1987

Britannia is an ancient term for Great Britain derived from Greek, and also a personification of the island and by the 1st century Britannia was known throughout the Roman world. She first appeared on coins issued under  Hadrian, where a female figure labeled BRITANNIA was depicted as a goddess. Britannia is portrayed as a beautiful young woman, wearing the helmet of a centurion, and wrapped in a white garment with her right breast exposed. She is usually shown seated on a rock, holding a spear, and with a spiked shield propped beside her. Sometimes she holds a standard and leans on the shield. On another range of coinage, she is seated on a globe above waves: Britain at the edge of the (known) world.

Britannia long survived the Roman withdrawal from Britain in the 5th century but the name fell into disuse until the 17^th Century when Britannia was used as an emblem of British imperial power and unity.

Britannia’s first appearance on British coinage was on the farthing in 1672, though earlier pattern versions had appeared in 1665, followed by the halfpenny later the same year; the model used, then and later, was Frances Teresa Stuart, the future Duchess of Richmond

Britannia £100 gold coin

In 1987, Britannia finally received the accolade of being promoted to a gold coin for the first time since Roman times and must rank amongst the worlds most beautiful bullion coins.
Britain decided to compete with the successful South African krugerrand bullion coin which had been minted by the million since introduced in 1967.
The gold Britannia was born and is produced in 22 carat gold, and is currently minted in 1/10 oz, 1/4 oz, 1/2 oz, 1 oz Weights. Various depictions of the goddess Britannia are on the coin, including the sitting Britannia, Britannia in helmet, Britannia with the lion, the Britannia and chariot and the standing Britannia.

The Britannia is classified as investment gold and thus free from VAT; but in addition as legal tender (like the Sovereign) is also free from Capital Gains Tax which is advantageous over other bullion coins and bullion bars as an investment instrument.

The Gold Britannia coin was originally alloyed with Copper, but from 1990 the decision was made to alloy with Silver.  This is why the earlier Gold Britannia’s have the deep Gold colour, as opposed to the lighter yellow gold colour of the Britannia since 1990.

Composition: 1987 – 1989: 22ct        (0.917 gold, alloyed with Copper)

1990 – present: 22ct    (0.917 gold, alloyed with Silver)

Designers:

Obverse – 3rd Portrait : Raphael David Maklouf, FRSA (1987 – 1997) / 4th Portrait :Ian Rank-Broadley, FRBS (1998 onwards)
Reverse -  Philip Nathan

Technical Specifications

Maurice Hall

The Napoleon to the French is what the Sovereign is to the British, their most revered coin and this “national” coin would be  each countries prime choice  for investment.  Both coins share the same principal of good design, quality minting and 22 carat gold. The Marianne Cockerel ( on reverse ) illustrated here is French coin  emblematic of a time when golden Franks shone all over Europe. The original design was by Jean-Clement Chaplain and is used on both the obverse and reverse. Because of the quantity produced they are traded as bullion coins and demand little premium except in times of crisis

There is a huge difference between the two countries in our attitudes towards gold and gold coins and this is historic. In short the French are gold hoarders and the British are not. French citizens hold approximately 10 times the amount of gold that is in the UK national reserve. Due to the uncertainty and trauma of war and occupation over the last 100 years , the French transferred a proportion of their wealth into a tangible asset, mainly gold Napoleons. Conversely the British have never suffered in this way so had no need for gold insurance and in fact were actively discouraged by the government making it difficult for UK citizens to own gold coins.

Why is this of any interest to someone in the UK who may want to invest in gold coins?. The French will always turn to gold as insurance to protect their wealth and this creates issues of supply and demand causing the premium on the Napoleon 20 FRF and the half Napoleon 10 FRF  to rise in times of crisis.  During October 2008 when financial panic was dominant in the world the premium differential ( the difference between the normal premium and the highest sell price) on the half Napoleon rose to over 80% as the French sought refuge in gold. There is a similar history with the Napoleon during the panic in the eighties the premium on the Napoleon ran to 100% and in October 2008 it rose to 48% for a short time; but in the table below we use the regular premium in that period.   In the UK a premium rise on Sovereigns in time of crisis is far more conservative. It follows that buying Napoleons at a time of normal premium and holding for a time when there is unrest be it political or financial would generate a very good ROI.

The table shows the premium that coins attracted at the hight of the crisis in October 2008. Remarkably some coins can be bought at very little or even negative premium in certain times and there is then the potential of a premium rise.  Coins that are in short supply, are difficult to mint and or are minted in small numbers generally attract a higher basic premium

A very attractive mechanisms is  to buy the Napoleons and store them in secure third party vaults in France or Switzerland where they are fully insured, you have an independent certificate of ownership and they are in your control.  Even better is to belong to a community that allows you store your investment in a vault; but at the same time allowing you to buy and sell amongst  that community, without moving the coins, thus simplifying the whole process and removing any dealer cuts.

Maurice Hall

Recently gold has taken a significant correction from a high of $1,226 an ounce it fell to $1,075 – about 12% in two weeks. It fell by more than $50 in one day the greatest fall ever.  Should we be jittery that this is the end of the dramatic rises we have seen so far in the 21^st century or is it a correction that will recover and rise above the high recorded in December 2009?

Recent History

As gold has been with us for 6 millenniums , recent history could be described as very recent but lets stick to the last 30 years, Golds previous high, where it rose to $850 per troy oz.  in 1980 was subsequent to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. If the thought of gold rising to over $1200  made people nervous it is put into perspective by remembering that by taking inflation into consideration, the $850 in 1980 is around $2500 today so the price has to more than double to reach the previous high. In 1980 gold was in a bull market with only a few currencies. Now the bull markets contain all major currency and the new giants of India and China.

Historic correction pattern – I would suggest that the current correction follows a historic pattern as the chart below taken over the last 10 years shows.  The December  correction from high to low was 12% that has now almost halved with the current price of $1140 to 7%.  Below the chart shows four quite brutal corrections ranging from 10 to 22% from the highs to lows followed by a period of consolidation and subsequent rises usually for around 9 months .

Historic dips and recoveries are a repeated pattern (rise 6-9 months, heavy correction. Consolidation before upward trend

Current gold correction should ease and rise to + $1400 by mid year

Mechanisms for Investing

Paper Gold – 95% of the worlds gold business is unallocated in which you do not physically own your gold.

• Mining Shares – no different than speculating on the stock market
• Futures – is a way to trade gold at an amount and price decided today for a delivery at a time in the future. You do not have to pay the full amount, but the dealers margin usually anything up to 20%  and you do not own the gold. This is pure short term speculation and subject to market moves and if you do know what you are doing your investment will evaporate
• Gold backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities designed  to accurately track the gold price.  Under an ETF a trust owns the gold, and you are a beneficiary of a debt owed by the trust and backed by its gold. This form of investment is better than a future but  probably more appropriate for investment institutions. If there was a panic and gold ETF investors try to take delivery of gold in exchange for their paper shares, gold funds may find it difficult to meet that demand.
• Gold Certificates – are normally unallocated gold with an option to convert to allocated but at a high cost. An investor in unallocated gold does not own that gold and is subject o the insolvencies of the vendor
• Bank Gold – this is always unallocated in effect you become a bank creditor and do not own the gold so any problems with the bank and your investment is at risk or total loss

Physical Gold

• Jewellery – Not an investment mechanism
• Large Bullion Bars - The main argument is that you can buy and sell your gold for very little premium and the rising gold price is great for ROI,  at the same time you hold a tangible asset. Bullion is not subject to VAT but is subject to Capital Gains.  The main disadvantage is that a large bar has a large value to initially purchase, your asset is not mobile and has moderate liquidity. If you own a 1 kilo bar it is not easy to sell off 100 or 200 grams
• Small Bars – Similar to Large bars but require a greater premium to purchase but do not require such a large initial outlay.
• Bullion Coins – e.g. krugerrands.  These are relatively new coins that are purchased for the value of their gold content and are of defined weights, they are in effect the same as small bullion with a small premium over the same value of gold in a bullion bar. Many bullion coins are not particularly attractive so is no different from bullion and are not subject to VAT but are subject to Capital Gains Tax unless they are legal tender.
• Semi-Numismatic – Sovereigns, Napoleons etc.  These are beautiful coins that have aesthetic, historic value.  Due to supply and demand they attract a premium ( value over and above the gold value) and depending where they are bought and their condition, the premium varies. The quality of the coin is an essential aspect, those which are in poor condition ( unless extremely rare), are only worth their gold value less dealers cut and are melted down. Sovereigns which are legal tender are VAT free and also free of Capital Gains Tax. Beware of Uncirculated and Proof coins as though undoubtedly high quality the premium is such that for a proof coin you pay double the gold value and that could never be recovered on resale.
• Numismatic – collectors coins that attract high premiums due to their collectability which is subjective in the collectors eyes and can only be re sold if wanted. Rare Sovereigns can be numismatic and may be VAT free if the premium is less than 180%.

Type of Investor

• Speculator – someone who is looking for short term gains and would normally use one of the gold instruments rather than physical gold.
• Investor – Again may be looking at the longer term gold instruments but may well want to take advantage of the rise in the gold price by owning physical gold
• Saver – Will want to own physical gold, take advantage of any upturn but whose prime purpose is to insure their wealth for the future

Reasons for investing Physical Gold

• Tangible Asset - Gold cannot  be printed like money. Governments worldwide are debasing their currencies as they print money.  It’s the oldest form of wealth in the world and does not rely on any third party promises. Gold is a “currency”
• Limited Supply – Less than 2000 tonnes per year Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
• Demand greater than supply –  A World Gold Report said that investor activity had picked up strongly in the 4^th quarter of 2009. An important part of this demand is long-term in nature, likely driven by positive sentiment toward gold’s supply and demand fundamentals and the corresponding price outlook.
• Diversification – Portfolio protection -Most experts  agree that investors should be diversifying between 5-10% of their portfolio into gold
• Insurance What is the purpose of insurance? Of course, it is to protect you against the unknown and the unexpected. You can’t risk not having it in your life, even if you never have to use it. Gold is an insurance policy just like on your car or your home. Given the current financial uncertainty are you comfortable with owning gold through a paper deed, especially if there is no formal audit procedure to verify your share. The primary and most obvious advantage to owning physical gold over paper gold is that it’s yours unequivocally. Gold and particularly recognized gold coin is universally accepted as money anywhere in the world, regardless of culture, language or local currency and can be convert it to goods and services.

Even in a relatively stable environment but with turmoil in the stock market gold has performed very well. It can be said that gold performs well in bad conditions but stocks and shares performance rises in good times. We are now in a bad time with economies struggling to rise out of depression so gold is very attractive and safe form of investment.  According to a recent article in the Sunday times gold was the only investment that beat inflation over the last 10 years. One of the best ways to beat inflation is to own real assets

Recommendations

Gold Coins – Modern bullion coins such as Krugerrands represent good value as they can be purchased at only a little more premium or even similar to small bars; but we believe that older semi –numismatic coins such as Sovereigns, Swiss Francs, French Napoleons, American Eagles etc.  are a better buy. In the UK the coin of choice will always be the Sovereign. For small quantities these coins will cost more than bullion coins but in larger quantities the if they can be bought at 2-3%  above the premium on Krugerrands, they are the best buy.

In times of crisis when the demand increases the premium will rise under the law of supply and demand, thus on top of the gold value you may be able to sell at a higher premium.  The Sovereign is a beautiful coin, so has aesthetic and historic value, insures your wealth and has a liquidity that is recognised through world

Summary

• Gold is the best way to protect your wealth
• Gold should account for 10% of diversified portfolio
• Every one should hold some gold coins to hedge against systemic failure

Maurice Hall

There is no better time than now to invest in gold coin. Historically UK citizens have never been hoarders of gold unlike many other countries in the EU and the rest of the world as we have never suffered the trauma of invading armies, currency crash or totally destroyed economies. In countries where this has happened or threatened, people have turned to gold to protect their wealth knowing that no matter what happened they can exchange their gold coins for essential goods. E.g.  French citizens personally hold 10 times the value of gold that is currently held in the UK gold reserve. We also to not inherently have the “survivalist culture” that exist in the USA where apart from arms, food and shelter, it is seen as essential to own tangible liquid assets such as gold eagles.

Until this century the UK government had discouraged the owning of gold by making it difficult. Until 1971 it was illegal to buy more than four gold coins without a collectors license and then in 1973, VAT was applied to gold coins, which dampened any new found enthusiasm. In common with the EU, the UK removed VAT  from investment gold including  specific coins in 2000.

We have seen a steady increase in the gold price this century until the all time high of $1227 in Dec 2009  after which it dropped rapidly by more than 10%. Is this a concern?. Any downturn is bound to incline towards nervousness; but this is purely a correction as has been exhibited over the last ten years, where there have been savage corrections, followed by periods of consolidation for a few months then the upward trend continues.  Also when gold reached is last all time high in 1980 of $850, the equivalent with inflation is $2200 today.  Experts agree that the gold price still has a long way to go.

The demand for gold coins rose sharply in 2009. This was a result of investors hedging against financial failure or diversifying portfolios into gold as there is a continuing lack of confidence as economies struggle to pull out of the worst recession in most peoples living memory. They also attract a premium over the value of gold which is dependant on supply and demand and currently world mints cannot keep up with demand. The Royal Mint quadrupled production in the last quarter of 2009 and we have seen increased production in Germany, Austria and US where there was a shortage such that “Gold Eagles” were on allocated supply

It is not just panicky individuals but professional investment advisors and sophisticated traders who are purchasing 50 or more coins at a time.

Gold coins are a tangible asset that can quickly and easily be realized and many such as Gold Sovereigns have liquidity that is recognized world wide. However, the sophisticated investor should view gold coins as an insurance policy within a diversified portfolio

Experts agree that somewhere between 5-10% of an investment portfolio should be diversified into gold.

Now in the UK we now have the best environment in the world for owning gold coins and particularly gold coins of legal currency, like Sovereigns as they are now VAT free and provided they were minted after 1817, free from Capital Gains Tax.  Plus you will own beautiful coins that have historic and aesthetic value to insure your wealth and provide a tangible asset that has world wide liquidity.

Maurice Hall

Sovereigns of England and France were to thought to have  the God given power of   healing by touch and they  practised this power to cure sufferers of Scrofula an unsightly tuberculosis commonly known as the “King’s Evil”.In France it was called the “Mal De Roi” . The ceremony and cure was a “laying of  hands ” by the monarch and the touching piece was the talisman of the monarch healing power.

Gold Angel

This developed into crossing the sore of the sick person with a Gold Angel, which was a currency piece that portrayed the Archangel Michael slaying the dragon. This was good overcoming evil and the gold itself stood for purity.  The Angel which became known as a « touching piece » was then worn around the neck until cured. It was believed if the touching piece was removed the disease would return. The sovereigns of the House of Stuart also used the ceremony to help bolster the belief in the ‘divine right of kings’ . The practice peaked with Charles II touching over 100,000 people; but it was discovered that a good number of people were not sick but were attracted by the gold. It was a considerable drain on Royal Coffers.

Maurice Hall