I was listening to a programme on BBC Radio which is always an informative station and my ears pricked up on a discussion on the 2009 Bordeaux vintage which is reputed to be the best in 60 years.  I like wine very much but the grand Grands Crus of Bordeaux which have long catered for the discerning tastes of the elite in the western world are beyond my means. However, I thought it would be an interesting to understand why the wines are so great and if I had a rush of blood to the head and splashed out, what would be the best value for money. To my surprise there was little in the way of comparison of the various producers but a great deal on the destination of the very best of French wine

From the baroque tasting room of Chateau Mouton Rothschild, to the grand hall of the Union des Grands Crus, Chinese delegations declared their intent to siphon off huge quantities of first growths, the very best wines.  The price of the first growths are likely to cost £4000 per 12 bottle case and even as high as £1000 per bottle.  According to the Chinese importers money does not seem to be a problem and Lafite-Rothschild is said to be the tipple of choice for the Chinese industrialist.  Private companies are soaring and property values are rising fast so people have a lot of money.

You may wonder why I am writing about wine on a blog whose main interest is gold. Whilst critics were in raptures with the top wines from Haut-Brion, Margaux and Latour it seems to matter little to the Chinese consumer who are reported to glug their wine or dilute even the most expensive bottles with lemonade. The reason is one of economics, no longer do these famous vintages end up in the cellars of the rich in the western world and particularly recession hit America; but they have become prestigious gifts amongst Chinese business people.

Throughout history, all great powers have their day Egyptian, Greek, Roman. More recently countries such as Spain, France, and Great Britain all had periods of unrivalled power. Today, the United States still reigns as the world’s sole superpower but it is on the brink and is being credibly challenged by rising powers in Asia, India and more importantly China who have designs on world financial dominance. It is a process that will have huge implications for investors over the coming years. It is no surprise India is the greatest consumer of gold and China the largest producer.

The balance of power is swinging eastwards. First the West exported industrial plant to Asia leading to investment in technology in the East which coupled with a cheap workforce produced a number of startups. Their cost effectiveness captured markets normally supplied from the West and eventually western domestic markets were flooded by cheaper imports leading to a decline in the manufacturing base and vast trade deficits. Now we find our selves in a situation where we are even being financed by the East. Iconic UK brands MG and Jaguar are Chinese owned and the new Californian bullet train was not only funded by money borrowed from China but built by a Chinese company.

Sovereign debt is threatening the fabric of western society and dragging down our currencies. It reminiscent of the 1930s as austerity measures have been running in Ireland fore some time, problems in Greece and Spain have lead to strikes and a general strike is threatened in Italy. Portugal is in the same mould as Spain and Italy, later additions to the EU from former Eastern Europe are in great difficulty particularly Hungary, France has to tighten its belt and Germany is in a domestic struggle over the Euro. Outside the Euro zone, the UK debt is of a greater GDP of all but Spain and its only because our repayment has a longer time span that we are not in quite the same mess as Greece. If the June budget does not show sufficient promise to bring down our deficit our triple –A rating maybe under threat.

So how does the American superpower stand?. The economy is the country’s top concern, with persistently high unemployment the greatest threat the public sees. Eight of 10 Americans rate joblessness a high risk to the economy in the next two years, outranking the federal budget deficit, which is cited by 7 of 10. An increase in taxes is named as a high risk by almost 6 of 10. Fewer than 1 in 3 Americans think the economy will improve in the next six months….Only 32 percent of poll respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 40 percent who said so in September.” (Bloomberg).

The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress. ( Reuter 8^th June). Economic contraction will continue with record numbers of foreclosures, personal bankruptcies, the highest rate of unemployment with millions more jobs to be lost as purse strings tighten.

Going back to the origination of this theme if Chinese businessmen can afford to mix lemonade with £1000 bottles of Bordeaux to impress friends and associates then there truly has been a swing to the East and that is where the demand for Gold will be driven. Currently the USD is the reserve currency but as power is being challenged so is the dollar as  both Russia and China are pushing for alternatives where gold may play a part.

Read the china Gold Report on this blog

Maurice Hall

Every culture or civilisation has a period termed its “golden age” and for India that was between the fourth and sixth century, the Gupta dynasty which covered most of modern India. The Guptas were prolific minters of gold coins and some of great beauty. The coins were named the dinara after the Roman denarius aureus- a reflection of Indian trading contacts with the West and the export of Roman coinage as bullion to India. However they were not a copy of Roman coins but completely Idianised and closely followed the concept of a universal monarch or ideal ruler. The original coins adopted the standard Roman weight of 8 grams but this was not very acceptable so the Guptas minted coins in a standard Indian weight called Suvarna around 9.2 grams. It must me remembered at this time the three world powers were the Roman Empire , the Byzantine Empire from  modern day Iran and the third the Indian Empire under the Guptas

We are at a period of time where religion in India was at a crossroads and the Guptas  were said to be responsible for patronizing a new temple based religion recognized as Hinduism. However, Kamuragupta  ( AD415-455) still practiced ancient Vedic rituals

Commemorating King Kumaragupta's horse sacrifice

Normally gold coins would feature the king or ruler on the obverse of the coin but this coin of King Kumaragupta I features a magnificent tethered stallion ordained with banners and ribbons. It symbolises the ashvamedha ( horse sacrifice) the Vedic ritual of legitimizing the conquests of a honourable and pious king. The reverse features the queen with ritual instruments for the ceremony. The Sanskrit around the rim says “King Kamuragupta the supreme lord who has conquered his enemies”

The Ashvamedha could only be conducted by a king. Its object was the acquisition of power and glory, the sovereignty over neighbouring provinces, and general prosperity of the kingdom. This was immensely expensive and is usually only performed once in  a Kings life time.

The horse to be sacrificed must be a stallion, and it is ritually purified and the sacrificer whisper mantras into its ear. The horse is then set loose towards the North-East, to roam around wherever it chooses, for the period of one year. Anyone who should stop the horse is ritually cursed, and a dog is killed symbolic of the punishment for the sinners. If the horse wanders into neighbouring provinces hostile to the sacrificer, they must be subjugated. The wandering horse is attended by a hundred young men, sons of princes or high court officials, charged with guarding the horse from all dangers and inconvenience but manly to stop it mating thus keeping it pure.

Reverse with the queen and ceremonial instruments

After the return of the horse, more ceremonies are performed. It is and bathed and anointed with ghee by the chief queen and two other royal consorts. The chief queen anoints the fore-quarters, and the others the barrel and the hind-quarters. They also embellish the horse’s head, neck, and tail with golden ornaments.  The king performs the sacrifice with a golden Knife. It concludes with the eulogy “May this Steed bring us all-sustaining riches, wealth in good kine, good horses, manly offspring”

First Indian Coins

Based on the available evidence today, it appears that the concept coins as means of trading (money), was developed by three different civilizations independently and almost simultaneously. Coins were seen in Asia minor, India and China in 6th century BC. Most historians agree that the first coins of world were issued by Greeks living in Lydia and Ionia around 650 BC using Electrum a natural alloy of gold and silver . However some historians have suggested that coins were minted in India as long ago as the 8^th Century BC.

What is beyond doubt that the first coins of India were minted just before 5th century BC in central India. Archaeological evidence confirms that the Indians were minting coins between 5th to 6th century BC. Coins are also mentioned  in ancient literature from 500 BC.

The Indians love of gold continues to this day as the world number one consumer of the precious metal.

Maurice Hall