Recently gold has taken a significant correction from a high of $1,226 an ounce it fell to $1,075 – about 12% in two weeks. It fell by more than $50 in one day the greatest fall ever.  Should we be jittery that this is the end of the dramatic rises we have seen so far in the 21^st century or is it a correction that will recover and rise above the high recorded in December 2009?

Recent History

As gold has been with us for 6 millenniums , recent history could be described as very recent but lets stick to the last 30 years, Golds previous high, where it rose to $850 per troy oz.  in 1980 was subsequent to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. If the thought of gold rising to over $1200  made people nervous it is put into perspective by remembering that by taking inflation into consideration, the $850 in 1980 is around $2500 today so the price has to more than double to reach the previous high. In 1980 gold was in a bull market with only a few currencies. Now the bull markets contain all major currency and the new giants of India and China.

Historic correction pattern – I would suggest that the current correction follows a historic pattern as the chart below taken over the last 10 years shows.  The December  correction from high to low was 12% that has now almost halved with the current price of $1140 to 7%.  Below the chart shows four quite brutal corrections ranging from 10 to 22% from the highs to lows followed by a period of consolidation and subsequent rises usually for around 9 months .

Historic dips and recoveries are a repeated pattern (rise 6-9 months, heavy correction. Consolidation before upward trend

Current gold correction should ease and rise to + $1400 by mid year

Mechanisms for Investing

Paper Gold – 95% of the worlds gold business is unallocated in which you do not physically own your gold.

• Mining Shares – no different than speculating on the stock market
• Futures – is a way to trade gold at an amount and price decided today for a delivery at a time in the future. You do not have to pay the full amount, but the dealers margin usually anything up to 20%  and you do not own the gold. This is pure short term speculation and subject to market moves and if you do know what you are doing your investment will evaporate
• Gold backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities designed  to accurately track the gold price.  Under an ETF a trust owns the gold, and you are a beneficiary of a debt owed by the trust and backed by its gold. This form of investment is better than a future but  probably more appropriate for investment institutions. If there was a panic and gold ETF investors try to take delivery of gold in exchange for their paper shares, gold funds may find it difficult to meet that demand.
• Gold Certificates – are normally unallocated gold with an option to convert to allocated but at a high cost. An investor in unallocated gold does not own that gold and is subject o the insolvencies of the vendor
• Bank Gold – this is always unallocated in effect you become a bank creditor and do not own the gold so any problems with the bank and your investment is at risk or total loss

Physical Gold

• Jewellery – Not an investment mechanism
• Large Bullion Bars - The main argument is that you can buy and sell your gold for very little premium and the rising gold price is great for ROI,  at the same time you hold a tangible asset. Bullion is not subject to VAT but is subject to Capital Gains.  The main disadvantage is that a large bar has a large value to initially purchase, your asset is not mobile and has moderate liquidity. If you own a 1 kilo bar it is not easy to sell off 100 or 200 grams
• Small Bars – Similar to Large bars but require a greater premium to purchase but do not require such a large initial outlay.
• Bullion Coins – e.g. krugerrands.  These are relatively new coins that are purchased for the value of their gold content and are of defined weights, they are in effect the same as small bullion with a small premium over the same value of gold in a bullion bar. Many bullion coins are not particularly attractive so is no different from bullion and are not subject to VAT but are subject to Capital Gains Tax unless they are legal tender.
• Semi-Numismatic – Sovereigns, Napoleons etc.  These are beautiful coins that have aesthetic, historic value.  Due to supply and demand they attract a premium ( value over and above the gold value) and depending where they are bought and their condition, the premium varies. The quality of the coin is an essential aspect, those which are in poor condition ( unless extremely rare), are only worth their gold value less dealers cut and are melted down. Sovereigns which are legal tender are VAT free and also free of Capital Gains Tax. Beware of Uncirculated and Proof coins as though undoubtedly high quality the premium is such that for a proof coin you pay double the gold value and that could never be recovered on resale.
• Numismatic – collectors coins that attract high premiums due to their collectability which is subjective in the collectors eyes and can only be re sold if wanted. Rare Sovereigns can be numismatic and may be VAT free if the premium is less than 180%.

Type of Investor

• Speculator – someone who is looking for short term gains and would normally use one of the gold instruments rather than physical gold.
• Investor – Again may be looking at the longer term gold instruments but may well want to take advantage of the rise in the gold price by owning physical gold
• Saver – Will want to own physical gold, take advantage of any upturn but whose prime purpose is to insure their wealth for the future

Reasons for investing Physical Gold

• Tangible Asset - Gold cannot  be printed like money. Governments worldwide are debasing their currencies as they print money.  It’s the oldest form of wealth in the world and does not rely on any third party promises. Gold is a “currency”
• Limited Supply – Less than 2000 tonnes per year Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
• Demand greater than supply –  A World Gold Report said that investor activity had picked up strongly in the 4^th quarter of 2009. An important part of this demand is long-term in nature, likely driven by positive sentiment toward gold’s supply and demand fundamentals and the corresponding price outlook.
• Diversification – Portfolio protection -Most experts  agree that investors should be diversifying between 5-10% of their portfolio into gold
• Insurance What is the purpose of insurance? Of course, it is to protect you against the unknown and the unexpected. You can’t risk not having it in your life, even if you never have to use it. Gold is an insurance policy just like on your car or your home. Given the current financial uncertainty are you comfortable with owning gold through a paper deed, especially if there is no formal audit procedure to verify your share. The primary and most obvious advantage to owning physical gold over paper gold is that it’s yours unequivocally. Gold and particularly recognized gold coin is universally accepted as money anywhere in the world, regardless of culture, language or local currency and can be convert it to goods and services.

Even in a relatively stable environment but with turmoil in the stock market gold has performed very well. It can be said that gold performs well in bad conditions but stocks and shares performance rises in good times. We are now in a bad time with economies struggling to rise out of depression so gold is very attractive and safe form of investment.  According to a recent article in the Sunday times gold was the only investment that beat inflation over the last 10 years. One of the best ways to beat inflation is to own real assets

Recommendations

Gold Coins – Modern bullion coins such as Krugerrands represent good value as they can be purchased at only a little more premium or even similar to small bars; but we believe that older semi –numismatic coins such as Sovereigns, Swiss Francs, French Napoleons, American Eagles etc.  are a better buy. In the UK the coin of choice will always be the Sovereign. For small quantities these coins will cost more than bullion coins but in larger quantities the if they can be bought at 2-3%  above the premium on Krugerrands, they are the best buy.

In times of crisis when the demand increases the premium will rise under the law of supply and demand, thus on top of the gold value you may be able to sell at a higher premium.  The Sovereign is a beautiful coin, so has aesthetic and historic value, insures your wealth and has a liquidity that is recognised through world

Summary

• Gold is the best way to protect your wealth
• Gold should account for 10% of diversified portfolio
• Every one should hold some gold coins to hedge against systemic failure

Maurice Hall

Tags: crisis, DOLLAR, Gold, Gold coins, inflation, Money, sovereign

This entry was posted on Friday, January 22nd, 2010 at 4:52 pm and is filed under Economy, France, Gold, Gold coins, Great Britain, Investment, Money, Numismatics, USA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.