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9th january Gold Trend Analysis

In last nights web update – resistance was listed at 1616-1626 and the high so far is 1625 spot Forex. Support was listed at 1597-1608 and the low was 1604 spot Forex.

This mornings update is early as I have to attend to a funeral.

Trades

Silver

Currently long 1 mini March silver at 28.63 from website orders last week. Leave additional orders and stops the same as last nights update and last Friday’s.

Gold

I’m looking to establish a position — but the RISK IS VERY HIGH because the trend has not been confirmed as to which side it will go yet. If we wait until the breakout comes at 1633, the first resistance would not be that far 1640-1663. On the other hand, the strongest weekly support is the 1575-1583 area and then 1597-1608. I’LL EMAIL IF I MAKE ANY CHANGES

the last short term price point low ended very early and not within the “window” — This usually happens a few times a year. Without making excuses, there’s a lot of evidence that the move down at the end of December had a lot of manipulation. Let’s call it end of year squaring of the books. It may have skewed the turns up a bit.

This is the week that trend for gold should develop and carry into the 23rd of the month. The direction has not been finalized — and it can still go either way. There is too much to cross current and the downside can’t be eliminated.
Euro crisis in the news this morning. Germany (Merkel) and France (Starkozy) meeting. Basically now need a NEW plan as the situation continues to grow by the day. They are expected to make a statement this morning. I think they have another three months to come up with this new plan.

There’s a lot going out out there this week. Here’s the snippets ……………..

Earnings season starts today in USA Stocks, now we find out if Europe slowdown affects STOCKS in USA — First earnings this week and First commodity is (Alcoa – ALUMINUM) and a few US BANK report. JP Morgan is one of them at end of week.

Iran and USA saber rattling at each other for the straight of Hormuz challenge with China standing behind them. China’s stock market needs to be watched for Global clues in COMMODITY DEMAND. In the Euro Crisis, Germany and France had another emergency meeting over the weekend— Germany and France must regroup and come up with a new plan in the next three months and they are due to make a statement in the coming hour. Another flare this morning is Hungary is now emerging as the “problem” of the week. However, they are still behind the 7% yield in Italy to start off Monday. Hungary said they are looking for ANY CREDIT LINE available. The Euro got as low as 126.50 and is now at 127.70.

The US Dollar is still above 80 and as long as that is happening on the chart, the liquidity problem still on. We’ll know more on Thursday of this week when we have ITALY AND SPAIN TRYING TO SELL BONDS. The Bank of England and ECB minutes on rate policy comes out on Thursday also. So, the US dollar needs be watched on the monthly chart as price at the near break out above long term channel line. that would open the door to the highs we saw during the 2008 liquidity crisis.

Levels of growth in world reported slowing as falling export demand from Europe and rising US dollar adds to DARKENING outlook. Some suspect earnings will be harder to come by this year. This weeks starts it off for the quarter.

Summary — Contraction in equities, a rising dollar, and any TIME that a hint of default in Europe debt will continue to add downside price shocks. Gold has been reacting to NEWS that the printing presses are on in EUROPE — but when they change the story the next day, the metals come down with it. But so far, when the markets drop, the ECB just cooks up another kick the can.

THE LATEST NEWS IS Germany and France back financial transacttion —– and can get a pact signed by Jan 30th they said in a statement a few moments ago. They meet again tomorrow to set up the SECOND GREEK BAILOUT PACKAGE. Yea, first one is gone.

Going to the Chart

Price needs to get above the green arc and 1625 and then 1633. A move above 1633 favors 1643-1663. support is 1597-1608 and 1575-1583. Favor higher to the 1625-1633 area in today’s session. UNTIL THE PRICE CLOSES Above 1633— the trend can still turn down. So that’s the risk — it could turn back down at 1625-1630 and that could end up the high of the day.

FRANCAIS ESPANOL ITALIANO CHINESE

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Thoughts
"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."