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27th january Gold Trend Analysis

Last nights website update listed resistance at 1733-1743 and the high so far is 1730. Support was listed at 1688-1695 and the low so far is 1714

Trades

GOLD

I had orders on the website that did not get filled — missed by a few dollars. I want to be long going into the Sunday night session for when China opens. Therefore I will try and average in — using the MICRO 10 ounce contract. I’m following FEB Futures price — but due to rollover next week, I’ll use April Contract, which is about three dollars higher than FEB prices.

DEPENDING ON PRICES — I may update again near the close

I’ll buy now at 1731 basis April Gold ———— and I’ll add at 1720 and at 1710 to try and average in at 1720 for one position. I CONSIDER THIS A HIGHLY RISKY TRADE. Stops will be listed this weekend.

SILVER

I WANT TO BE LONG ——– but i am reluctant to pay 34 dollars per. With gains of $4.25 per oz in the past two weeks, I’ll wait for some type of pullback today. If we trade to 33.20 basis march, I’ll buy 1 March Mini Silver. Stops will be listed on the website this weekend.

London Gold Fix $1,722.00 +$9.00

CME NEWS

While February gold was unable to carve out a fresh new high for the move overnight, gold prices have remained within close proximity to this week’s highs. The technical trade is suggesting the gold market is overbought , but the fundamental crowd is holding out hope that support from the US Fed position.

At least in the early going today, the flow of news from the Euro zone seems to favor the bulls, as EU officials think a Greek deal is very close at hand. However, the Euro zone has a track record of 11th hour derailments and for many traders they will embrace a Greek deal only after it is official and they in turn probably won’t embrace that deal as a positive for long. This is really the one danger over the weekend to watch. Should there be a breakdown in talks, it could impact some prices on Monday.

Asian equity markets were generally stronger this morning, with the Nikkei again the only market in the region showing weakness. European equity markets had been garnering some lift from the US Fed but turned down in the last few hours. It also seemed as if some European gains were being forged off optimism that a Greek deal was very close to fruition. The markets also saw Italian bill yields fall to levels equal to last May this morning and that benefited the Euro.

With EU officials this morning also hinting at a Greek debt deal directly ahead and others suggesting the coming three days will be extremely critical to the Euro zone, there might be a measure of concern present today and that could keep some commodity markets contained.

The scenario we laid out on the website last night on China opening back up on Monday seems to be holding gold prices up so far today as we think a higher China market on Sunday evening might lead commodities higher as well.

Going to the Chart

Gold comes into Friday still very strong. The buy order from last night was missed by a few dollars. The issue as i see it going into the weekend is the reopen of China on Sunday night versus the Euro situation and the Greek outcome over the weekend. There is still no agreement as we enter the weekend. The one thing that seemed telling i gold was that the GDP number this morning was not that great, yet gold rallied back to its highs of the week just under 1730. So, while we’d like to be long for the Sunday open, we’re faced with having to pay top dollar if we want to be long. Should Euro land over the weekend, it could affect the gold trade.
If gold breaks above 1730, it could prompt a test of the 1743-1768 area next week. Finally, the market is overbought and short term cycles are due to turn. Price always rules, but these things still have to be considerations. THE TREND REMAINS UP — but its expensive to enter at this price point and we’re at resistance.

SUMMARY — THE TREND IS STILL UP and I’m looking to enter to be long for the SUNDAY night open in China.

FRANCAIS ESPANOL ITALIANO CHINESE

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Thoughts
"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."