Partners

11th november Gold Trend Analysis

Last nights website update listed resistance at 1770-1777 and the high so far today is 1774. Support was listed at 1737-1739 and the low so far is 1745.

Trades — Long gold at 1744 — I’m EXITING NOW AT 1772.50 —— and GOING FLAT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE market can move either way into the close —– but I’d rather be out at the moment.

Today is Veteran’s Day in USA, so volume could remain low in equities. There is a lot of people who cannot access their money a MF Global and the concern grows and the firestorm grows.

The Crude Oil market approaches the 100 dollar area this morning. Equities are up in Europe as well as the USA with the Dow up 220 points.

In Italy, Default swaps tied to the senior debt of UniCredit, a proxy for the cost of funding at Italy’s biggest lender, jumped 150 basis points this month to 502 basis points, approaching the record 504 reached in September. Contracts on Intesa Sanpaolo, the second-largest, jumped 129 to 467, also close to an all-time high, according to CMA in London. News this morning says they have approved austerity measures. Bond Yields GOT TO 7.4% ——–and here on FRIDAY MORNING — they are back down to 6.5% —– and it looks like ECB buying has contained the danger for today. The reaction in Equities and commodities has been for much higher prices in mid session Friday trading.

“The market is pricing in an Italy event and assuming that Italy fails,” said Patrick Lemmens, a senior money manager who helps oversee about $13 billion, including Intesa Sanpaolo shares, at Robeco Groep in Rotterdam. All eyes are on Italy if austerity passes — and gold is also up on sympathy from strong crude oil prices.

Going to the chart

Gold and silver are ready to start the next trend that should last about 1 to 2 weeks. IT looks like the 1773-1778 is going to be an important point today —- and will be the pivot for the remainder of the day. The real test begins within the hour as Europ gets ready to close at 11:30 AM EST. The question remains does one want to be long over the weekend? The last few Friday’s has shown more weakness as the day progresses so keep that in mind. With global conditions being the way they are we have to be prepared for anything —- and that includes the potential of a late day sell off. We know that the next trend move is due — and this 1773-1778 area should be an area to watch.

IN summary — the overall short term trend is still up. We’ve been looking for a peak this week and the move from 1803 to 1735 gave us the first leg. ANY NEW HIGH NEXT WEEK would suggest that the market is inverting and wants to go higher towards the end of November. Any close below 1744 will argue for lower.