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Archive for July, 2013

Gold is going higher

Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013

You are reading several articles here indicating that it is a good time to buy Gold. Here is a respected commentator, Dennis Gartman, with his view that the price of Gold is set to go several hundred dollars higher. Now, wouldn’t it be a good idea to buy some now while it is cheap, then have some to sell when the price is high? Think what you could do with the profits. Here is a link to the CNBC with our thanks. To go to the site, click here

Gold: The perils of possession and gold investment by post

Friday, July 5th, 2013

I have never seen the benefit of adding transport risk and cost to an investment but gold seems to attract the need to physically possess it, thus somehow reassuring the owner of its certitude. Imagine applying this logic to all investments – would having a desk and chair from the company you have “shares” in make you feel better, reassured that your investment was in good hands because you could touch it whenever the need arose?

Obviously most investments on the market do not require physical possession to prove their value or existence and yet so many of them carry far more risk to the investor e.g. “Paper” assets are vulnerable to macroeconomic instability and they could fall to zero in a crash. Gold can never fall to zero value.

However, the most important factor is the effect possession has on your resale options and therefore the potential of your investment to yield a profit. Vault stored gold offers investors immediate resale at a price they define and thus being able to react promptly to market changes. Postal gold limits your resale options and especially the resale price.

State intereference can ruin everything!

One of the other risks is that some unforeseen measure is introduced by the Government blocking your investment resale path …… read on.

The French government recently introduced a measure effectively banning the delivery of precious metals by post. This caught investors unaware and those that prefer physical possession at home are now in a quandary as the only resale method they have is to take their gold to a shop in person. It has also wiped out several companies that only sold through the post. The ban also includes the “we buy any gold” type operators which is no bad thing given their poor pricing of an ounce of gold.

Once again this is indication of how a government decision can suddenly unwind your investment strategy and probably cost you money.

If this sort of ban came into the UK most coin dealers operating through the internet would lose their business model immediately as the predominant method offered is to buy and resell by postal transfer.

The extra cost of postage and insurance should be deterrent enough for savvy investors as adding costs to procure your investment is rather self-defeating. Similarly, reselling by post has never offered a true reflection of the gold’s value because the buyback price is always below spot (and no greater than 98% of spot). In the case of gold coins this means an even greater loss as the premium is negative instead of being healthily positive.

Investors using these methods are poorly advised but that is also because the business model is simple and based on buying and selling with a defined spread always favouring the coin merchants.

Why add risk to your investment?

Ideally investors should be able to set their own resale price (ask price) and even better if they can propose this to a multitude of interested parties that seek to buy gold. This type of model is offered by companies who included vault storage so the gold doesn’t have to move and just the ownership changes once transactions are paid and completed.

The price of gold is historically low

Wednesday, July 3rd, 2013

What should you do?

Here is an insight from our friends at LinGOLD.com who kindly agreed to explain how they advise their regular and established customers during the current price decline.

Since the beginning of this year, we have seen a significant decline in the price of gold. We are witnessing, without a shadow of doubt, a significant price manipulation of the “paper” gold and silver markets. Informed large investors are moving out of ETFs (paper gold) in order to buy physical gold, a true, tangible asset. The “paper” gold market has never been reflected so little in the market for physical gold than today.

We have regularly commented and indicated how we believe the market is manipulated – “The gold market in the hands of speculators, is no longer connected with real gold stocks, real gold production, real gold bullion and real gold coins …”

We can legitimately ask the question, what should we do?
Wait, buy or sell?

After such a fall, we can expect a sharp recovery, and it may be difficult to reposition and buy at a good price.

In a strategy spreading  investments in gold over time, it still seems interesting to perceive these declines as great opportunities.

The two charts below illustrate what we recommend to our members on investment and allow you to understand the difference between “emotive savings ‘(not to follow) and a “rational savings ‘ in the context of our LinGOLD Savings Plan (LSP).

Our original members do not make the mistake and always still take full advantage of these fluctuations to strengthen at a good price, or on the contrary they grin and bear it by supporting by supporting a decrease in latent potential value.

In reality, there is no good solution for a holder of gold. Either you decide to leave the risk, never being able to come back and accepting heavy losses, or you hang in there and you run the risk of further devaluation and potential losses for some time to come.

In all cases, as indicated by Paul McGowan of LinGOLD.com,, “This decline illustrates perfectly the lack of coherence and the inconsistency of the markets. The only feasible alternative? Physical gold, of course; the insurance against crises, inflation and state interference. Gold is the only sufficiently tangible asset with a real true value to brave all the economic storms. Personally, I am taking advantage of the opportunity to top up my holdings cheaply. ”

Economic analysis of the gold price decline in by Charles SANNAT, Head of Economic Research, AuCOFFRE.com:

“In the short term, while it may be very painful for the price of gold. Gold could go test new lows. (…) It is possible that we are heading for these new levels.”

In an editorial entitled «Gold relives its explosion of 1980?” he says::
“Gold has something different to all that can be manipulated because it is a credible alternative, with history and worldwide recognition compared to other monies or currencies – because since the beginning of time gold is money all over our planet ”

Gold reaches short term support point on Price Chart

Tuesday, July 2nd, 2013

Here at Goldcoin.org we welcome the expert analysis of Bill Downey from Goldtrends.net which he kindly allows us to use here for our readers.
There are many interesting insights into how the markets work and why we are where we are.

Gold Daily Update from June 27, 2013

Trend
Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1448 for bullish
Short Term=Bearish- A CLOSE ABOVE 1322-1337 IS NEEDED TO NEUTRALIZE THE DOWNTREND.

Support and Resistance

Initial Resistance 1247-1257 and 2nd tier 1271-1281
Initial Support 1220-1225 and 2nd tier 1189-1207

CME GROUP NEWS

The gold market fell out of bed again today with the majority of the declines seen early in the Wednesday morning trade. While gold attempted to recover it would seem like the gold trade won’t easily discount the prospect of a coming end to global QE. It is also possible that knock on selling by gold derivative investors will keep negative headlines flowing in the days ahead, as gold prices falling down to fresh multi year lows is clearly damaging sentiment toward the yellow metal. With equities also siphoning off capital from gold, adverse currency market action and damaged charts, the bull camp just doesn’t seem to have much to bolster their case.

Gold Overview

Gold sold off hard once again as the selling is rampant and all trends remain down. Today hit the 1220 support line on the hourly chart and a new short term cycle begins on Thursday. With the liquidity situation, there is a much higher potential then usual that this new cycle that lasts into July 7th could become another down trending one that would add another two weeks of lower price. We’ll have to see how gold reacts. There has been absolutely no strength in metals at all recently. At this point a lot of players are throwing in the towel as they’ve had enough of losses. With Mid-Week Wednesday providing the low so far this week it’s possible that we can bounce now over the next few days. With that said, the situation coming into Thursday keeps all trends in down mode. We’ll have to see if the cycle and the double bottom at 1220 become relevant.

Gold Hourly Chart

the short term trends are still down. We’ve hit the next support line and price is bouncing. It’s had two successful tests but that’s it. Until we close above 1280 the trend remains down. Support is 1220-1225 and 1189-1207 (last support not shown on chart). 1st resistance is the 1245-1255 area and then 1271-1281. At best all we can say at the moment is this line may provide this week’s low point from which we bounce.


Gold Cycles

the next turn point cycle window closed on Wednesday and a new cycle begins Thursday. With the current situation we can’t eliminate that we’ll have another two week cycle down. We discussed last night that Mid-Week Wednesday could make the low of the week and that potential remains pretty good, but no guarantees in this environment.
The wild card is the liquidity crisis as markets remain very dangerous at the moment. Thus from a cycle standpoint and the situation, it takes second place next to price action. Thursday favors a bounce and consolidation.

GOLD WEEKLY PRICE CHART
Long Term Trend – 1573.17 – 1509.59 (Neutral)
Medium Term Trend – BEARISH (1559.95 -1625.92)

the medium term trend remains down. The red channel line close below 1353 has lead to a 130 dollar in a very short time. The green channel line at 1189 (plus or minus 30 dollars) is the next support point.

What Next?

Wednesday may have reached a short term low and bounce support point on the hourly chart. Thursday favors a consolidation and a bounce with resistance in the 1241-1271 area. Support is the 1220-1225 area and then 1189-1207. All trends are down. The short term cycles are due to turn but this liquidity situation is obviously in charge thus cycles are secondary and price rules. Let’s see if we get a bounce.

Bottom Line

until things stabilize we have to keep favoring the downside. There may be a 1 to 2 week bounce in play on the short term cycles. But with that said, the trends are still down.
The thing that doesn’t make sense is the physical inventory situation at the Comex on the chart below. Until it affects price, we can’t say much more than just showing it.

It is also worth noting that for investors looking for a good time to buy gold, they need not look too far – the recent correction and manipulation means that gold prices have not been so attractive for over 3 years.

If you are an investor always waiting for the right moment – it is here right now.

When gold resumes the $1500 or $1600 an ounce price tag you will be kicking yourself if you didn’t buy now – remember it wasn’t so long ago that the spot was regularly even higher than this at $1700.

Physical gold is always a good investment and buying at today’s prices makes good investment sense because gold will go back up again in the future as debt works its way throught the ceconomy and furhter debt revelations are made in years to come.than today as the price

FRANCAIS ESPANOL ITALIANO CHINESE

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Thoughts
"For a mountaineer, the important things are the effort, the posture and the muscles. The rope that holds him serves no purpose when everything works but it gives him a sense of security. In the same way, all gold does is ensure confidence; it's a safe haven."