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LinGold.com, we applaud your arrival and wish you every success for the future.
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Gold has always fascinated with its attractive, brilliant and glistening appearance but also because of the intrinsic properties of this precious metal. No wonder that it has played an important role in history since its discovery. Thus, for many people, gold has been at the heart of their culture, such as the Inca civilization which referred to gold as the “perspiration of the Sun”. They bestowed gifts in gold, made statues of gold, wore gold and in fact gold was everywhere around them. But in addition to this cultural role, gold very quickly acquired another role: that of Money.
While currency wars and devaluations are very much a thing of today, we have taken a trip back into the past to look at the origins of one of the first real currencies… and who knows, one that may again take its place again in the near future as a trusted, true exchange of value.

Money, a concept born of necessity

Before money existed, goods were traded in a form of exchanges and bartering. Livestock such as oxen, horses and sheep, commodities like wheat, fruit & vegetables, wood, silver and of course gold were all traded against each other depending on needs (demand) and availability (supply). However, there was an obvious difficulty that would arise which was how to equate the value of items to each other. There needed to be a reference value so that prices could be agreed upon and defined as quantities of this “stable” known value. There was also the problem of giving change or what to do if you only had enough to buy half a sheep and we’re hungry!

A popular and plausible hypothesis by Hauser* was that as gold was also being traded against various goods, its weight was used to agree an exchange. Soon people realised that gold could easily be divided into different weights which equated to multiples of its value and therefore the value of other commodities. This led to the concept that of weights of gold were indeed useful “units of value” and quickly prices for oxen, sacks of wheat etc became equivalent to a certain weight of Gold.
Naturally gold started to become a reference point for the exchange of all goods particularly because it was easily divisible and impossible to fake.

The birth of gold coins

In Egypt, gold was exchanged against goods in the form of rings which had fixed weights and therefore different multiples of value could be used for pricing goods. Elsewhere however, gold stayed in the form of ingots for a long time but their weights were often variable and trading was tedious because of these discrepancies. Weight variations meant that trades were seldom a direct equivalent to the goods being traded and so much haggling ensued.
In search of something more convenient, reliable and safe, small gold discs of a fixed weight were made and each one had a value struck on it. They were easier to carry around and allowed trade to be more flexible, retail as well as wholesale.
Thus the first gold coins were born and indeed the first recognisable currency. This took place around 700 BC according to Erik Chanel.

Whilst gold was not the only metal used for coins – silver has been widely used as well- gold, however, was the ideal metal because of its unique combination of properties such as: it is stainless, rustproof, divisible, malleable, ductile and of course rare, which made it from the outset a symbol of riches.

Is Money as good as Gold

We have previously mentioned the Gold Standard on Goldcoin.org which has several meanings depending on the era.
The Gold Specie Standard was a system that associated units of money to gold coins in circulation or when lesser metal coins drew their reference of monetary value from a circulating gold coin.

The Gold Exchange Standard was when circulating coins made of various metals such as silver and copper drew their reference monetary value from a fixed value of gold independent of their own metal value.
Finally, there was the Gold Bullion Standard which did not involve circulating coins. This was when governments had agreed to sell gold bullion at a fixed price in exchange for a quantity of circulating currency. In other words, each unit of currency effectively had a value related to gold. This allowed the mass introduction of paper currency, which was easily transportable and practical for payments.
It was also the mechanism which allowed banks to not only look after your gold deposits as they had previously but led to the credit creation system, fractional reserve banking, loans and mortgages. The problem here was that greed got the better of bankers who realised they could lend more than they had in Gold reserves and print paper money whenever they wanted as long as nobody caught them out. Sound familiar.
If you are interested in the story of money, banking and the credit crisis have a look at this video when you have a chance. It’s very relevant to our current problems.

Without Gold, Money as Debt

Anyway, the Gold Bullion Standard ended in 1971 when Nixon felt the strain of expenditures from the Vietnam War and he effectively untied the value of the dollar to gold. This also effectively untied all the other currencies which had been part of the Bretton Woods Agreement to form the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in 1944.

Paper is worth as much as Paper!

So nowadays currencies are not “covered” by a relationship to gold or a fixed unit of reference so they can be extremely volatile, easily devalued and printed at infinitum. The problem is that today’s money is based on pieces of paper that are printed with a value but there only real value is the piece of paper they are printed on. Currency value comes from economic confidence. When there is none the currency becomes worthless and it is not because the central bank has printed a number on a piece of paper that it becomes meaningful.
What actually counts is whether anybody will accept the paper in return for goods or services or dare I say it an oxen or two. We’re back where we started. The value of currency has to be real and cannot be created otherwise it will not be accepted.
Much of the problems we face today are because an excess of credit has led to an excess of debt. Pressure on currencies causes devaluation which in turn decreases the value of assets, investments and therefore wealth.
This is causing people to look for ways of protecting their wealth outside of paper money. This brings us full circle to gold which has proved through the ages to be the best safe haven for value.
The choices today are to own a physical asset that will always maintain its value i.e. Gold or to invest in the labyrinth of debt ridden, financial institutions whose products are heavily advertised but rarely realised for the poor customer. They spend more on marketing their wares than they do in paying out customers at term. Remember HSBC charging 80% over the 32 year term of a pension fund leaving some poor old retired guy broke. He’s in no position to fight back especially with the expensive legal eagles they can afford with his hard earned money!

Should we return to a Gold Standard?

Unfortunately, that is virtually impossible because there isn’t enough gold to go around. There are only 20m3 in the world and about another 100,000 tonnes in the ground. There would have to be a huge devaluation of currencies to restart the Gold Standard and of course it’s unpopular with Central banks as they would have to behave properly.
We referred recently to the state of Utah and how people are taking the matter into their own hands because they require more certainty about the money they earn and spend. The dollar has failed them and so they are now looking at creating their own Gold currency which will maintain value better than the greenback.
It would seem we have turned full circle and more and more people are turning to Gold because it offers a safe haven for their savings and is an insurance against instability.
Gold coins are an excellent investment vehicle and more and more people are turning to the value of gold. Gold coins are actually worth more than their weight in gold because they have a dual leverage. The gold content of the coin increases in value with the spot price and the premium (added value) of a coin increases with demand. During a crisis or unstable economic conditions the premium of certain coins can rise more than 40% irrespective of the spot price.

Gold as a future currency?

Gold as a currency of the future may seem far-fetched but given the state of paper money and the interest in Gold who knows, it is already being planned as an alternative stable money in certain places. Even if gold coins do not re-enter circulation they are being used as a more certain tangible investment.
Some of the most popular coins for investment are those commonly sought the world over such as the Krugerrand, The British Sovereign, The American Eagle and the French Napoleon.
These are a way of preserving your wealth and savings in something of real, timeless value.

* H. Hauser, Gold, Vuibert & Nony publishers, Paris, p.307.

Regular readers may remember our recent article on “Gold, an alternative Currency of Confidence?”
We discussed that alternative currencies are not a new phenomenon and have taken various forms in countries such as Canada, Australia, USA and the UK.

A common theme for their introduction was that they were local currencies introduced to stimulate local economies by encouraging customers to shop close to home and support local businesses. They were also the product of peoples’ dissatisfaction with Globalisation and its’ impact or even control of National economics and policies.

Alternative currencies reflect the frustration of being “controlled” by Goliath and is”David” saying “I’m taking back control because I don’t trust you, your policies, your strategies, your empty promises, your ability to manage the economy, your concern for regular citizens or your failing, devalued, paper money”.

This is exactly the case in the state of Utah where a proposal in the Legislature has been submitted that would require government agencies to accept gold in transactions. This would effectively create a parallel monetary policy that would fix “currency” values directly to the price of gold for business carried out within the state. It would equate to the introduction of a state-wide Gold Standard.

In fact if the current draft legislation succeeds it would mean that residents of Utah could mint their own gold coins. The logistics required to secure these would include the governor arming and calling on the Utah Defence Force to police stock movements and storage vaults.

The proposal was brought to the attention of Republican John Dougall who opened the bill and he commented “I think it has merit”. He added “Fundamentally, what it comes down to is people’s concern about the fundamentally reckless policies at the federal reserve and what it does long-term to the financial standing of the country and giving folks another choice of monetary tools for their financial transactions”.

Will US Debt and Quantitative Easing see the Dollar fail?

People are genuinely concerned that the soaring National debt, now over $14 Trillion, and the printing of more dollars to buy up the debt, will eventually devalue the dollar too far. Therefore they would like to have an option if things do go pear-shaped.

There is no intention of making this compulsory but at least it provides citizens with a choice to pay their taxes in gold. It seems rather strange that a country whose Government forcibly confiscated gold back in the thirties may now be forced to accept it as payment for taxes. It is also curious that regular people like Larry Hilton, an attorney and insurance salesman who drafted the proposal “Utah Sound Money Act”, are taking the lead in looking to the benefits of gold. Surely Governments should take a lead in restoring confidence for their own currency?

It would appear that “Goliath” is behest of ideas and resigned to fail whereas “David” has an eye on the future and wants to preserve and protect his personal wealth.

It proves that you don’t have to be a financial expert or big city hot-shot to understand the value of gold. Gold’s value has transcended the ages and it always keeps its purchasing power and better than any currency ever created. You can buy a cow today for the same 2 ounces of Gold you needed 300 years ago! No fiat currency can compete with that.

There are of course certain practicalities to address before any new coins are introduced, such as an agreed exchange rate, denominations and how change would be given. Any private minting of coins would be governed by regulatory standards.

However, if the legislation is passed it does mean that one day soon folk could pop down to McDonalds and pay for their hamburger with their own gold coins – then that would bring a whole new meaning to the “Golden Arches” and “McNuggets”!!!

After its tenth consecutive year at a high, and after closing 2010 with a 25% increase, the price of gold will continue the same trend in 2011.

Precious metal experts, financiers and market analysts from different countries all agree that the combination of factors which encourages a high price for gold will continue to benefit the sector in 2011 and investors will continue to see gold as a safe haven in the face of a very delicate global economic situation.

Those who had already made an investment in gold are looking at the global context to decide if this is the time to take profits or else continue their investments in precious metals.

Those who had not however, especially in Europe, now see gold as the best value protection for their savings and investments or for anyone seeking to diversify their holdings. But the measures adopted by the Central Banks have also contributed to encouraging the increase in the price of this commodity.

Analysts from UBS have upwardly revised their forecasts for the price of gold. The reason is the uncertainty generated in the European financial system, the weakness of the dollar and the growth in inflation in Asian countries which are leading to growing debts in Western countries and an excess of liquidity in the USA.

Jim Rogers, the commodities investment guru, said that gold will continue to rise over the next decade, although it may fall off before it reaches historical values adjusted for inflation.

Anne-Laure Tremblay, a precious metals strategist from BNP Paribas, stated that “the price of gold is being helped by a weakly backed dollar and solid investment demand”.

Bill Bonner, of Moneyweek and the Daily Reckoning, stated recently “Back in the real world, gold is trading at about $1,400 an ounce, up from less than $500 five years ago. That’s a 23% annualised return, far outstripping the gains on stocks (1.1%) or bonds (6.1%). Fear is driving a lot of the rise.”

According to a report from Swiss private bank Sarasin, one of the main developers of sustainable investment products in Europe, “the price of gold over recent months has been mainly driven by investment demand. This is principally reflected by the growing quantities of gold held in exchange-traded funds (ETF)”.

“The outlook for metals will remain positive next year. There is sufficient demand from the investment perspective in order to maintain a relatively upward trend, particularly in gold”, said Darren Heathcoat, operations manager of Investec Australia in Sidney.

For its part, the German newspaper Handelsblat remarked in one of its columns that investors who are temporarily betting on gold “can rub their hands”. It added that central Banks have moved from being sellers to buyers of this metal and this is an unequivocal signal about the safest place for investors.

Through a presentation by Sabine Schels, a global commodity strategist from Bank of America – Merrill Lynch, the Bank says it expects that raw material prices will rise next year as a result of a strong growth in emerging countries. She went on to say that they envisaged the price of an ounce of gold would exceed the $1500 threshold during 2011, despite the unfavourable outlook for developed economies during the next few quarters.

According to Schels, some emerging economies such as China or Brazil could implement more rigid monetary policies in order to control inflation and facilitate growth. This could possibly translate into an important brake on the price of raw materials, depending on the sources. However, it would be compensated (and maybe even exceeded) by increasing Government spending on improvements of their infrastructure and housing, for example.

The Bank of America representative announced their view that oil prices could temporarily exceed the $100 a barrel threshold, using as a reference Brent Crude, which currently hovers at around $90 a barrel. Similarly, she added that Copper could easily achieve new historical records in 2011.

“Of course the European debt crisis, as well as the risks of inflation in China, have recently fuelled the States nervousness when the announcement of the second round of Quantitative Easing came from the Fed, especially as we believe there will be a shortage of raw materials in 2011″ explained their analyst.”

In this same context, reported by the newspaper El Economista, Alan Valdes, Director of Investment at Kabrick Capital, stated that gold will certainly reach $1500 an ounce by the end of the year, oil has attained its peak during the last two years, Wheat will exceed its records of the past three years, cotton is more expensive than during the civil war… and as long as the dollar does not rally up, then commodities will continue to climb.”

Bank of America – Merrill Lynch predicts that the price of gold will reach a maximum of $1500 an ounce in 2011 and thus continue its trend of recent years, allowing it to further increase yields of 2010.

For Schels, investors’ fears over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have resurfaced with the financial aid granted to the Ireland, which caused the devaluation of the euro at the same time that the dollar was losing its value. The eyes are now firmly on Portugal and the impact that it could have on the deceleration of the Spanish economy.
According to this analyst, all these factors reinforce the idea that gold will continue to be an alternative refuge and safe haven for savers and investors, causing its price to rise still further during 2011.

The weakness of the dollar, the instability of the European economies and the volatility of United States bonds has scared investors. India is the principal consumer of gold. China is the principal global gold producer. Is there any link here? Despite this reality, and with gold prices at historic highs, China and India are continuing to buy major quantities of precious metals. In fact, the quantities are so high that they are becoming the pillars which are supporting the upward trend in the value of the troy ounce for 2011.

The gigantic Chinese economy is driving the bullion market, coins and gold assets upwards. Bloomberg obtained a report from Shanghai Gold Exchange in which it states that China moved from purchasing 45 metric tonnes of gold in 2009 to a projected 230 metric tonnes for 2010.

At the same time, China’s Ministry of Industry and Technology reported last December that the exporting and importing of non-ferrous metals for this country grew year on year in the first eleven months of the year and reached 108,480 million dollars.

Individual Investment pushes up demand

The increased demand comes mainly from individual investors who prefer to hold physical gold as a safe haven for their wealth. Shen Xuangrong, Chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, stated a few days ago that this interest was mainly due to the expectations of an increase in inflation in this Asian country.

Between January and October last year, the amount of precious metal traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased by 43%, according to its Chairman, Shen Xuangrong. Approximately 20% of these transactions were made on behalf of individuals.

In August of 2010, the Central Bank of China reported that it was going to authorise more Banks to be able to buy and sell gold. It also stated that it was going to makes the regulations for the gold market more flexible to enable more firms to be able to operate in this segment.

More than a million Indian Weddings this Spring!

India has already demonstrated that it occupies a prominent place in the purchasing of bullion, coins and gold assets due to jewellery being accumulated in March in readiness for the wedding season. This year it is very probably that the trend will be repeated: there are more than a million weddings planned to take place in April and May in India and this triggers a strong demand for precious metals, especially gold.

The growing demand for gold jewellery, together with an increase in the demand for bullion and gold coins, demonstrates the popularity of the metal in India. Moreover, for many Indians it represents a safe investment compared with the volatility of paper money.

India is responsible for one quarter of the global imports of gold. China has made changes to its regulations for importing precious metals. Everything seems to indicate that it will shortly become the new leader in gold imports. And not only that: “In the medium and long term, China will be a decisive factor in determining the price of gold “, said Yuichi Ikemizu, Chief commodities analyst at Standard Bank in Tokyo.

Over recent decades the World has experienced a number of financial bubbles. Each one of them has reduced incomes, pulled down currencies, shaken entire financial systems or caused panic in the global economy. Since the Tequila effect in 1995, the Asian bubble in 1997, the bursting of the .com bubble at the beginning of the new Millennium, not to mention other crises leading to the mortgage and financial bubble over the last two years, currencies throughout the World have suffered adjustments which have led to losses of thousands of millions for savers of all sizes around the World.

Obviously, traditional forms of investment such as savings accounts, property, Treasury bonds, shares or investment funds are, inevitably high risk investments. Cash contributions to any traditional investment option does nothing more than generate liquidity in the markets and generate loans which can end in a new bubble or a large demand from stock markets from around the Wold to obtain shares, titles or bonds of dubious strength.

The economy of the United States, which everyone knows to be the strongest in the World, has an annual budget of 3,500 million dollars. According to the latest published data, the income of the United States government was around 2 thousand million dollars per year, and based on the data known from the slowdown, it is considered probable that the tax take will reduce even more, meaning that the Obama’s government will have to obtain 1.500 million dollars in order to be able to continue to function.

For some time now the dollar has ceased to be the preferred haven for investors. The Euro, launched as the bulwark of the strength of European economies, has not achieved it aims in the crisis which erupted in 2008. The Yuan, despite being revalued in 2010, has suffered strong inflationary pressures. The yen has strengthened against the dollar, but this does not mean that the Japanese economy is going through a period of strength. In fact, Japan has been going through a major depression for some 15 years. It just so happens that the instability of other currencies has led to the yen being afforded a position of “strength. However, if something changes on the World stage – and boy is this likely – the yen may also collapse.

The global debt is bigger today than the world can pay. With the World virtually bankrupt, many central Banks, corporate investors, private savers and individuals throughout Europe are increasingly turning to gold as an investment option. What is the reason for this? Gold exists, is real and is there for anyone who want to see it or touch it. It does not depend on any investment fund or company profits to remain on the market. Gold is a real, tangible asset which has been valued by human beings for more than 6000 years. The offer is limited and demand increases year after year.

In order to preserve personal wealth there does not seem to be a lot of options around. Certainly the value of gold may rise and fall, but it will never disappear.