Maybe you think it sounds extreme but daily we move closer to the real possibility that a major fiat currency such as the US Dollar or the Euro could collapse in the blink of an eye.
The mounting economic pressures mean that eventually something will have to give.
Inflation is rising.
Oil prices are rising.
Debt is unresolved.
Property prices are falling.
Unemployment is rising.
The cost of living is rising.
Wages are stagnating.
Raw material costs are almost out of control.
Energy costs are rising.
Growth is negligible (and most estimates are over-egged by floundering politicians)
North Africa and the Middle East are unstable. The knock on effects are pure guess work at best.
What will happen next?
What will be the net effect of all these things stirred up with a huge dose of uncertainty?
It’s like a tinderbox to start a Finacial Armageddon.
Just one single event could trigger an unstoppable domino effect that would lead to financial meltdown.

Don’t believe me?
What if Greece cannot keep to the rescue plan imposed on it? What if it defaults? Will a whole country go broke? And then what?
What if the Eurozone feels the knock on effect or what if another bigger Eurozone country requires a bailout?
Any of the major currencies could be put under extra pressure resulting in a run and a collapse and at any time.
The US dollar is a benchmark for the world, for oil prices, trade, banking etc.
Is it conceivable that this , the most important currency on the planet as we know it , could collapse.
Take a look at this video and decide for yourself. Impossible, Possible, Probable or highly likely?

This is a timely reminder to the fragility of wealth stored in currency or as a paper promise reliant on the success and existence of a large institution.
Wealth needs protection for survival and the acquisition of valuable physical assets that can survive a crisis is the only way. No wonder Central banks and the biggest fortunes on the planet are stocking up on Gold!

I’m sure that we all believe that governments control the money supply especially in their own country and their own currency.

I’m sure that when we place our blind faith in the banks for loans, mortgages and everyday banking we trust that they will do their best for us and operate with upstanding principles to protect our assets.

I’m sure that those of us living in a free democracy believe our liberty and rights are being controlled by fairly elected governments representative of the people.

I’m sure that as you watch the daily news about unrest around the world you begin to sympathise with the poor oppressed peoples and hoping that soon they can have the same safe system bestowed upon them that we all apparently enjoy.

I’m sure that you would be horrified to learn that the controlling influence on the largest economy in the world and therefore an influence that stretches right around the world does not actually belong to the US government at all.

Despite its self-appointed name, the US Federal Reserve which controls Quantitative Easing, the printing of the US Dollar and US Economic Policy is actually a private company steeped in mystery with a special status completely outside the control of law.

You don’t believe it? Well just take a few minutes and watch the video for a quick insight into the real world of money laundering and absolute control.

Remaining ignorant could be bliss but then again if your livelihood and survival depends on it sometimes it’s better to be informed.

Disclose.tv – “the american dream” Video

You may now understand why your continued use and enslavement in paper assets is important to those who would seek to control.

When a crisis hits or the bubble bursts you will be left with nothing and no way of reclaiming a cent or a penny of your hard earned cash.

Do you think the politicians, bankers and enormous fortunes of the world will really care?

After all when was the last time you saw a poor politician or a poor banker?

When crisis strikes they remain the great untouched because they have the personal means and wealth to survive wars or economic disaster. They won’t feel hardship or hunger but you will.

During World War II many ordinary French families managed to survive the occupation because they had stashed a few gold Napoleon coins away which they could use to buy food. This is fact and is borne out by many a testimony from the time.

If the monetary system imploded or crashed and your Dollars, Euros, pounds or whatever became worthless, how would you survive?

Gold ownership is like a fire insurance for your personal wealth and is an investment in a physical entity that you own. When a crisis hits it has always proved to be vessel of value irrespective of the currency or era.

The logic for fire insurance is quite simple – should you buy it before or after the event?

Gold investment for the masses has never been encouraged because the Banks prefer you to believe in paper money which they can print, lend to you and make huge profits for themselves in the process.

It has never been in their interest to tempt you or advertise its qualities because they have been “stealing your gold” since money was invented.

In the Age of Austerity we find ourselves, not knowing whether currencies or countries may collapse at any time, what have you done to protect yourself from destitution and desolation?

Maybe you like taking chances and are hoping for the best but that may not be enough to survive and feed yourself.

Maybe you could plan ahead and maybe you should start now?

Remember, after the fire it is too late to buy insurance!

Gold hasn’t reinvented itself as a currency yet. But it is getting closer.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it will allow clients to use the metal as collateral in some transactions. For example, a hedge fund wanting to borrow money for a short period can put up gold as collateral and use the borrowings to invest elsewhere, betting on making a better return. Typically, banks accept only Treasury bonds and stocks in such agreements.

By making the announcement, J.P. Morgan is effectively saying gold is as rock solid an investment as triple-A rated “Treasurys”, adding to a movement that places gold at the top tier of asset classes. It also is trying to capitalize on all the gold now owned by hedge funds and private investors that is sitting idle in warehouses.

“It’s solidifying a trend that gold is re-establishing its role as a monetary and financial asset,” said Carlos Sanchez, associate director of research with New York commodities consultancy CPM Group.

J.P. Morgan said it is responding to demand from clients, many of which also store gold in the bank’s vaults.

“Many clients are holding gold on their balance sheets as an inflation hedge and are looking to make these assets work for them as collateral,” said John Rivett, collateral-management executive at J.P. Morgan Worldwide Securities Services.

J.P. Morgan’s decision Monday reignited debate among gold’s fans and detractors. For decades, supporters have argued gold is a monetary asset and should be treated on an equal footing with cash. However, gold critics argued the market has been too volatile and too small for it to be considered a legitimate currency.

Recently, though, gold’s status has been rising.

Exchanges in New York, Chicago and Europe recently agreed to accept gold as collateral for certain trades. And the World Gold Council also is gaining traction in its push to have the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision accept the precious metal as a Tier-1 asset for banks, along with government bonds and currencies.

In India, many financial-services companies are offering personal loans against physical gold, a market that is expanding.

“Gold is increasingly being used as collateral around the world,” said Natalie Dempster, the gold council’s director of government affairs. “All these moves reflect a growing recognition of gold’s role as a high-quality, liquid asset.”

Gold futures for February delivery on Monday settled 70 cents lower, or 0.1%, at $1,347.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached a nominal record close on Jan. 3 of $1,422.60.

In essence, J.P. Morgan is creating another role for gold, which has limited use now. One of the main laments of the metal’s critics is that, once bought, the metal doesn’t generate any income, compared with interest on bonds or dividends on stocks, and mainly just sits in vaults, rising and falling in value.

“It gives another use to gold as a cash instrument,” said Tom Pawlicki, an analyst at MF Global, a commodities brokerage. Investors who hold gold, he said, “might be less likely to sell it.”

Gold still is far from being the integral part of the monetary system it once was.

After World War II, under the Bretton Woods agreement, several countries pegged their currencies to the dollar, which in turn was fixed to the price of gold. President Richard Nixon ended the dollar-gold peg in 1971.

It is unclear whether customers need to hand over the physical bullion to J.P. Morgan or at what haircut the metal will be pledged with the bank.

There still is risk for financial institutions in taking gold as collateral.

If prices fall sharply, along with the value of the underlying trades, the collateral value could fall short of covering the trading positions, leaving banks scrambling for more margin to cover the losses.

In the past, worries about a lack of liquidity in the gold market have prevented banks from taking gold as collateral. But as investors piled into the market in recent years, the market has deepened.

The market is more liquid than many government-bond markets in Europe, with daily trading volumes normally exceeding $100 billion, according to the World Gold Council.

“When a bank, such as J.P. Morgan, is willing to extend collateral value against an asset such as physical bullion, it shows that they are not worried about the liquidity issue if they might take the collateral over or they have to liquidate the collateral,” said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services, a Chicago broker.

Source Wall Street Journal: Carolyn Cui, Rhiannon Hoyle, Liam Pleven and Matt

Regular readers may remember our recent article on “Gold, an alternative Currency of Confidence?”
We discussed that alternative currencies are not a new phenomenon and have taken various forms in countries such as Canada, Australia, USA and the UK.

A common theme for their introduction was that they were local currencies introduced to stimulate local economies by encouraging customers to shop close to home and support local businesses. They were also the product of peoples’ dissatisfaction with Globalisation and its’ impact or even control of National economics and policies.

Alternative currencies reflect the frustration of being “controlled” by Goliath and is”David” saying “I’m taking back control because I don’t trust you, your policies, your strategies, your empty promises, your ability to manage the economy, your concern for regular citizens or your failing, devalued, paper money”.

This is exactly the case in the state of Utah where a proposal in the Legislature has been submitted that would require government agencies to accept gold in transactions. This would effectively create a parallel monetary policy that would fix “currency” values directly to the price of gold for business carried out within the state. It would equate to the introduction of a state-wide Gold Standard.

In fact if the current draft legislation succeeds it would mean that residents of Utah could mint their own gold coins. The logistics required to secure these would include the governor arming and calling on the Utah Defence Force to police stock movements and storage vaults.

The proposal was brought to the attention of Republican John Dougall who opened the bill and he commented “I think it has merit”. He added “Fundamentally, what it comes down to is people’s concern about the fundamentally reckless policies at the federal reserve and what it does long-term to the financial standing of the country and giving folks another choice of monetary tools for their financial transactions”.

Will US Debt and Quantitative Easing see the Dollar fail?

People are genuinely concerned that the soaring National debt, now over $14 Trillion, and the printing of more dollars to buy up the debt, will eventually devalue the dollar too far. Therefore they would like to have an option if things do go pear-shaped.

There is no intention of making this compulsory but at least it provides citizens with a choice to pay their taxes in gold. It seems rather strange that a country whose Government forcibly confiscated gold back in the thirties may now be forced to accept it as payment for taxes. It is also curious that regular people like Larry Hilton, an attorney and insurance salesman who drafted the proposal “Utah Sound Money Act”, are taking the lead in looking to the benefits of gold. Surely Governments should take a lead in restoring confidence for their own currency?

It would appear that “Goliath” is behest of ideas and resigned to fail whereas “David” has an eye on the future and wants to preserve and protect his personal wealth.

It proves that you don’t have to be a financial expert or big city hot-shot to understand the value of gold. Gold’s value has transcended the ages and it always keeps its purchasing power and better than any currency ever created. You can buy a cow today for the same 2 ounces of Gold you needed 300 years ago! No fiat currency can compete with that.

There are of course certain practicalities to address before any new coins are introduced, such as an agreed exchange rate, denominations and how change would be given. Any private minting of coins would be governed by regulatory standards.

However, if the legislation is passed it does mean that one day soon folk could pop down to McDonalds and pay for their hamburger with their own gold coins – then that would bring a whole new meaning to the “Golden Arches” and “McNuggets”!!!

Through a presentation by Sabine Schels, a global commodity strategist from Bank of America – Merrill Lynch, the Bank says it expects that raw material prices will rise next year as a result of a strong growth in emerging countries. She went on to say that they envisaged the price of an ounce of gold would exceed the $1500 threshold during 2011, despite the unfavourable outlook for developed economies during the next few quarters.

According to Schels, some emerging economies such as China or Brazil could implement more rigid monetary policies in order to control inflation and facilitate growth. This could possibly translate into an important brake on the price of raw materials, depending on the sources. However, it would be compensated (and maybe even exceeded) by increasing Government spending on improvements of their infrastructure and housing, for example.

The Bank of America representative announced their view that oil prices could temporarily exceed the $100 a barrel threshold, using as a reference Brent Crude, which currently hovers at around $90 a barrel. Similarly, she added that Copper could easily achieve new historical records in 2011.

“Of course the European debt crisis, as well as the risks of inflation in China, have recently fuelled the States nervousness when the announcement of the second round of Quantitative Easing came from the Fed, especially as we believe there will be a shortage of raw materials in 2011″ explained their analyst.”

In this same context, reported by the newspaper El Economista, Alan Valdes, Director of Investment at Kabrick Capital, stated that gold will certainly reach $1500 an ounce by the end of the year, oil has attained its peak during the last two years, Wheat will exceed its records of the past three years, cotton is more expensive than during the civil war… and as long as the dollar does not rally up, then commodities will continue to climb.”

Bank of America – Merrill Lynch predicts that the price of gold will reach a maximum of $1500 an ounce in 2011 and thus continue its trend of recent years, allowing it to further increase yields of 2010.

For Schels, investors’ fears over the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis have resurfaced with the financial aid granted to the Ireland, which caused the devaluation of the euro at the same time that the dollar was losing its value. The eyes are now firmly on Portugal and the impact that it could have on the deceleration of the Spanish economy.
According to this analyst, all these factors reinforce the idea that gold will continue to be an alternative refuge and safe haven for savers and investors, causing its price to rise still further during 2011.

Over recent decades the World has experienced a number of financial bubbles. Each one of them has reduced incomes, pulled down currencies, shaken entire financial systems or caused panic in the global economy. Since the Tequila effect in 1995, the Asian bubble in 1997, the bursting of the .com bubble at the beginning of the new Millennium, not to mention other crises leading to the mortgage and financial bubble over the last two years, currencies throughout the World have suffered adjustments which have led to losses of thousands of millions for savers of all sizes around the World.

Obviously, traditional forms of investment such as savings accounts, property, Treasury bonds, shares or investment funds are, inevitably high risk investments. Cash contributions to any traditional investment option does nothing more than generate liquidity in the markets and generate loans which can end in a new bubble or a large demand from stock markets from around the Wold to obtain shares, titles or bonds of dubious strength.

The economy of the United States, which everyone knows to be the strongest in the World, has an annual budget of 3,500 million dollars. According to the latest published data, the income of the United States government was around 2 thousand million dollars per year, and based on the data known from the slowdown, it is considered probable that the tax take will reduce even more, meaning that the Obama’s government will have to obtain 1.500 million dollars in order to be able to continue to function.

For some time now the dollar has ceased to be the preferred haven for investors. The Euro, launched as the bulwark of the strength of European economies, has not achieved it aims in the crisis which erupted in 2008. The Yuan, despite being revalued in 2010, has suffered strong inflationary pressures. The yen has strengthened against the dollar, but this does not mean that the Japanese economy is going through a period of strength. In fact, Japan has been going through a major depression for some 15 years. It just so happens that the instability of other currencies has led to the yen being afforded a position of “strength. However, if something changes on the World stage – and boy is this likely – the yen may also collapse.

The global debt is bigger today than the world can pay. With the World virtually bankrupt, many central Banks, corporate investors, private savers and individuals throughout Europe are increasingly turning to gold as an investment option. What is the reason for this? Gold exists, is real and is there for anyone who want to see it or touch it. It does not depend on any investment fund or company profits to remain on the market. Gold is a real, tangible asset which has been valued by human beings for more than 6000 years. The offer is limited and demand increases year after year.

In order to preserve personal wealth there does not seem to be a lot of options around. Certainly the value of gold may rise and fall, but it will never disappear.

The subject has been around for a while but the Obama administration is running out of options to tackle the spiralling National Debt. There is some high profile support for the idea notably from Fed chief Bernanke. This is understandable given the potential revenue such a tax could generate for the Government coffers.There is obviously genuine opposition to the imposition of such a tax and even last May a motion in the US Senate was defeated 85 to 13.
However, as with all politicians faced with a dwindling number of alternatives the idea eventually focuses the minds otherwise.
It also has something to do with the sheer scale of the problems facing the administration.

The American Dream is being replaced by the American Nightmare!

The current US National debt is $13.86 Trillion, which is equivalent to $45,000 per person and the total is rising by $4.16 Billion a day.
At what point does the US go bust?
How long can it sustain such levels of Debt?
How long can it afford to pay the level of interest due on a debt that size?
Has the US mortgaged its future prosperity and for how many generations?
The US needs to find an ongoing reliable source of income to erode the Debt down and an obvious if unpopular option is to tax more.

So what is VAT?

VAT is a national sales tax on goods and services
First adopted by France in the 1950s VAT or Value Added Tax is calculated as a percentage of the selling price. VAT is applied to most purchases including cars, petrol, electrical goods, furnishings, any luxury items, clothing etc and on any service activities. Businesses trade off VAT they pay for purchases of goods or services with the VAT they must charge for their products. The money goes to the Government but there is a mechanism to offset one against the other and businesses that are VAT registered only pay the net difference between VAT charged and VAT paid.
VAT is commonly shown separately on invoices and receipts so that businesses can claim against any VAT they have paid out.
Consumers just notice the increased prices and cannot claim VAT back.
There are usually exemptions such as baby products and sometimes different rates are applied such as take away food being levied at a lower rate than sit-in restaurant meals.

One interesting exemption from VAT in Europe is Investment Gold.

This is an EU wide agreement that applies to all Gold Bullion which is not less than 995 thousandths pure.
It also includes Gold Coins minted after 1800 that :

* are of a purity not less than 900 thousandths
* are or have been legal tender in the country of origin
* are normally sold at a price not exceeding 180% of the open market value of gold contained in the coin.

Hopefully the USA may follow this trend or investors will turn to European suppliers who sell VAT free Gold.

There are 139 countries, including most major economies except the US, that levy a VAT style tax. It is thought that VAT is a better alternative of increasing tax revenues because is does not discourage investment in the way that higher income tax can.

Typically, rates of VAT are between 15 to 20 % in Europe.
The UK is due to raise its VAT from 17.5% to 20% in January 2011 as part of its deficit reduction measures.
Here are some actual rates in developed economies – Italy 20%, France 19.6%, Germany 19%, Australia 10% and Japan 5%.

What will be the rate in the US?

No-one can be quite sure exactly where they are hoping to pitch the level of VAT but the numbers involved are quite tempting.
Various estimates exist including:

* a level of 5%VAT will raise $161 Billion in 2012
* for each 1% VAT levied in USA, $70 Billion will be raised. Therefore 10% VAT would harvest an extra $700 Billion which is quite an attractive offer for the Obama administration.

Concerns have been raised for the less wealthy who will find a disproportionate increase in taxation compared to their salaries. This is true and is the case in other countries but whilst Governments express concern and promise to “evaluate” the impact, the cold facts (hard cash) tend to provide a compelling argument.

So will President Obama opt for “Change” and start clawing back some cash to repay the National Debt. Some commentators dismiss the issue saying he couldn’t possibly get away with it.
Well, I’ve got news for them, in his own words “Yes We Can!”

Paul McGowan

China is set to buy and continue to buy Gold in the coming years as its excess of Forex reserves spiral upwards. At present 1.7% of this is invested in Gold but as they are due to run a further surplus of $2.7 Trillion over the next five years they will have to buy between 1,000 and 1,500 tonnes just to match the current ratio. There is a strong possibility that they will buy even more to avoid exposure to further dollar devaluations.

Introducing QE2!

How strange that Bernanke’s QE2 will inevitably continue this cycle of dollar devaluation. The only reason he introduced QE2 is because he has no other ideas or measures in his locker. He did it for something to do as doing nothing looks bad. Well time will be the judge but the short term effects won’t last long and ultimately will solve nothing. His hopes are that he survives office before the “Bubble” bursts but the legacy of QE2 will not be good. Hyperinflation may just be around the corner followed by a total devaluation of the Dollar, leading to it losing its role as a reference currency.

No gold left in India!

All of these factors are contributing to the increasing world demand for gold. The Indian market ran dry of gold coins recently as the “season of lights” demand outstripped supply. The Chinese private investment market has all but doubled demand in the last year to 143 tonnes (from 73 tonnes 2009 and 17 tonnes 2008). Predictions are that this will rise but at what rate? One can guess that it will be significant.

So what will happen to gold prices?

Well today spot prices have broken another record by passing the $1400 an ounce ($1404.90). A weak dollar, increasing demand from central banks and expanding private markets will push the price through record levels to $1500 an ounce by spring break at the latest and even $2000 by Q4 next year.
Whenever the credit, currency or debt “Bubbles” burst the sky will be the limit for gold – literally!
If you believe this is fiction check the facts on gold prices for yourself on the links below and remember that since 2008 the rules have changed ……….. and any so called correction for Gold is likely to be up!

Paul McGowan

Time is running out for the dollar

Gold is linked to the US dollar and in a simple equation strong dollar = weaker gold, weak dollar higher gold price. The future strength of the dollar depends on the economic prospects for America and they are not good, therefore the dollar will weaken and gold strengthen. On top of these there are moves afoot to remover the dollar from its status of reserve currency which to date has been a factor supporting for the dollar.

Earlier I reported that Europe can no longer support its very expensive social welfare programs and the shrinking working population will not be able to support the growing pensioners with there over generous pensions and of course the ugly head of unemployment.

I also indicated that the US viewed the European situation with derision as its old fashioned ideas dictated that its time was over.  “Judge not lest you be judged” as written in Mathew 7.1 is very applicable to the American situation.

The prosperity of the USA after World War II led to an explosion of population  who were labeled the  baby boomers  and they total some 78 million. These now approach retirement and will collect benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that, on average, exceed per-capita GDP. The annual costs of these entitlements will total about $4 trillion in today’s dollars.

The U.S. is bankrupt, tax, retirement benefits and health care are in a mess

Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.  With a $4 trillion fiscal gap the US have three courses of action or a combination of the three – reduce significantly the benefits of the “baby boomers” – huge tax increases – print more money, which is the current policy.  Realistically printing money needs to be supported by the reduction of benefits and increases in taxes.

Additionally last month the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt by stating  “The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

Rather than be judgemental of Europe the U.S. should look at themselves and realize they are potentially in a worse financial state than Greece

For some time now both Russia and China have been pushing for an alternative to the dollar as the reserve currency. While the West has been forced to sell  off assets to compensate for loss or to pay off debt, cash rich China has been buying assets, in particular gold and using those assets as a form of currency to offset the increasing fragile dollar. This is all part of a long term strategy to boost their own currency the Yuan to become an internationally accepted currency.

If that was not enough in the last few weeks the United Nations report “World Economic and Social Survey 2010: Retooling Global Development” called for the creation of a new global reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar as the single major reserve currency.
“The dollar has proved not to be a stable store of value, which is a requisite for a stable reserve currency,” it said.
It suggested that the reserve should be based on  the existing  Special Drawing rights  (SDRs) created by the IMF to supplement member countries reserves: but with a new basket to reflect the changing weight of global economies  and include emerging countries currencies ( the Yuan) thus downgrading the importance of the dollar.
“To summarize, reducing dependence on the dollar through increased use of a created currency made up of a basket of currencies such as the SDR could be a significant step towards greater stability in the world economy,” the report concluded.

Compare the dollar to the British Empire, once the greatest the world has known, which  has now out lived its usefulness and faded into the memory of once what was. The dollar has not yet fallen that far but it is well on its way and gold will become more important and stronger as a result.

Maurice Hall

We need to go that way to avoid the rocks

The European Union is facing an economic and political crisis that threatens the single currency, exposes greed, bureaucratic strangulation, unsustainable social welfare programmes, raises questions on protectionism and the very fabric of the free market. If that was not enough, the weakness of its leaders becomes apparent and two of the giants France and Germany support a different solution. There is a very English phrase “ to muddle through” and that is what European leaders have been doing and hope they can continue doing so as not to put emphasis on radical change that can upset the apple cart either internally or externally. Muddling through depends on growth.

The European Union is still the world’s largest economy supporting over 500 million people of diverse race, cultures and languages. However, the EU is facing both an economic and a political crisis as governments and companies cannot easily borrow money and the euro wobbles. Initially the weakness of the euro was shrugged off as speculation and Anglo-Saxon conspiracy, but the real problem is that social welfare in many countries is so protected and expensive that it is strangling the economies. Europe has to grow just to maintain its welfare systems and innovation just to pay for increasing old age pensions and unemployment is not inspirational. Of the 27 countries in the EU only Poland managed positive growth in 2009, while it is true that recently many have now turned positive, but it can only be described as mediocre. Outside of Europe the perception is that the protectionist policies for citizen welfare indicate that there is no longer the guts to tackle the problems. A sick Europe benefits nobody and arguably, were it healthy, then the worst of the global crisis would be over.

It is the courage of Europe’s leaders to initiate structural reform that comes into question. As Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg, said memorably in 2007-  “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”  Many of Europe’s problems stem from election seeking misallocation of public spending with years of subsidizing powerful interest groups, increasing civil service payrolls, early retirement schemes, job protection and unemployment benefits. Between 2005 and 2030 the working-age population of the European Union will shrink by 20m, and the number of those over 65 will increase by 40m. In Belgium only 35% of citizens over the age of 55 work. It is almost impossible to sack a person in Spain, great for those in work but for the 40% youth unemployment that it generates, it is immoral.   European leaders underestimate the realism of the voters and proposals in the UK and Netherland to raise the retirement age to as high as 70 have met with moans but no angry protest.  In France, according to an opinion poll proposals to increase the retirement age were unjust and did produce the usual French protest, few disagree that the current state pension scheme faces insolvency.

The single market does not truly exist and the EU is almost a third less productive than its American counter parts in services, because countries hide behind national barriers and so do not gain full economies of scale. Anyone who has worked in a multi national industry knows how difficult it is to get policies implemented, products introduced or to comply with a European directive that has been interpreted 27 different ways into national law. No company with any sense would open a factory or an office in France, Italy and some other EU countries, where protectionist employment laws could kill that company. I personally know of a case where a multi national company was trying to tighten its purse strings to remain solvent and Italian law forced that company to increase the salary of Italian employees and maintain periodic pay rises. In desperate times protectionism has raised its head. In France with Mr. Sakozy suggesting that French cars for French drivers should not be made in former Eastern bloc countries and the EC had to intervene to stop Germany offering incentives to a consortium proposing to buy the failing Opel company, to keep the German factories open to the detriment of more cost effective plants elsewhere.

This crisis has the ability to pull countries closer together or pull them further The key is Germany where they are furious that they have to bail out other countries until they realize that they created the situation in the first place. Germany companies have done very well and the economy has grown with exports particularly to Greece where they have risen by 130% in the last 10 years. So how did Greece pay for these exports. with loans from German banks. Therefore, it is essential that they and the French to a lesser extent rally around the single currency as they are sat on a large amount of southern Europe sovereign debt. That has been the pattern the industrious north has done well but those around the Mediterranean have been affected by the sun leaving the idyllic life but unable to pay for it. Great for a holiday but not for life, in fact Greece has become the most obese in Europe where once they had one of the healthiest diets.

The alternative approach is to a number of separatist theories with retraction from the Euro or a North South divide where the super efficient North have a strong euro and the languid south another. Which would France join?

Practically what can EU leaders do and which direction can they take and what have they done so far?  To date there have been last gasp austerity measures that may well in the short term pacify the bond market but is a risky course of action. These measures will inevitably lead to a weakening growth rate and increased unemployment. The same arguments were the difference between Labour and the coalition in how to solve the UK’s financial problems where at least there is time as the UK’s debt has the longest due date of all in Europe. Now Spain, Greece and Portugal face a log hard struggle to rebalance their economies

Markets have lost faith in the euro and the hope was that the economies of the 16 countries that use the euro would converge. The struggle to regain creditability with markets has lead to a divergence on the course to be taken by Germany and France. Germany has gone for stricter rules and discipline on borrowing and spending, sanctioning governments who fail to toe the line to the extent of freezing funds for EU mega projects and suspension of voting rights. The French favour a system of redistribution from richer to poorer members with some fiscal and social harmonization.

Germany’s proposals are unworkable, the reaction to losing voting rights is unacceptable particularly to the former communist countries where there has been such hard work to lead to democracy. Stopping funding on EU mega products where they cross boarders could penalize other countries. To redistribute, as the French recommend, to save the euro would require an equally unacceptable step towards political union.

What is the likely outcome?. It is likely to be a  form of compromise with temporary rescue packages, informal and semi formal discussions and agreements – in other words a muddle through.

It is possible for the EU to agree and force through essential legislation when it is a matter of survival. A key demand to European business is an EU wide patent that has been stuck for years over the status given languages in Spain and Italy. On 1^st July the EC forced this through to be valid in all 27 countries. Another example of the power of the EU market is where Germany was told it could not spend taxpayer’s money to protect Opel jobs in Germany without the same support to other countries. It is possible that the people understand the need for a free market economy better than their leaders where in a recent pole 73% of Germans and 67% of French said they were better off in a free market. Interestingly a greater percentage than in the middle of the boom and greater than America. We have already mentioned the need to pay for pensions and the less than feared reaction to raising the pension age. In the countries brought to the brink of disaster, the civil unrest was much less than expected and dominated by public sector workers with safe jobs. The leaders should have courage as this crisis gives the excuses for radical reform and there are hints that citizens are prepared to take there medicine.

However, the best bet would be a muddle through and hope for the growth that is needed to sustain it. An opportunity lost.

Maurice Hall

In June our sister site (L’Or et l’Argent) has run a series of articles that follow the theme of a “house of cards” starting with Greece whose only resources, tourism and olive oil are not enough to lift them out of bankruptcy and a similar situation in Portugal. The next contagion is Spain, an economic giant in comparison, where unemployment is rife and debt would reach €225 billion in 2010. Although Spanish debt continues to grow, it remains lower than France which is the largest in the euro zone. Outside of the Euro Great Britain is cited as a contender for a “house of cards” following austerity measures announced at the budget and the marginalisation  of the GBP as we through national pride refused to join the eurozone.

This is an interesting take from a European prospective and draws attention to the two trains of thought in economic growth. The 2008 economic crisis still affects us today, we in the UK and most of the western world are in an era of fragility that needs to be stabilised. We could attempt to spend your way out of it as and stabilise growth before taking cost cutting measures as was the policy of the labour party or cut back immediately and risk stifling any growth. Meanwhile across the Atlantic Barack Obama seems to believe that the US can just spend their way out of it and print more dollars.

To me, if likened to a house hold, first you must recognise your debt and here in the UK we have gigantic debts to overcome, then you must take action. Spending on plastic has its day of reckoning and eventual you must cut your card in half, review expenditure and come up with a budget  that enables you to pay essential bills  and gradually repay your excesses with money saved. The economy of the country is no different, to improve your credit rating you cut wasteful spending, improve efficiency and live within means to gradually ease the sovereign debt. Austerity measures in the UK seems to have won respect in world markets as GBP has risen both against the Euro and the USD and the FTSE 100 has recovered to over 5100. More importantly the economy has grown marginally in the manufacturing section.

I have to say I have been pro Euro particularly when we could have joined in a position of strength but now I am in many ways glad we are still separate. Despite the Euro’s recent rally there is too much of a divide between the countries in the Euro zone, the efficient North and the chaotic South to the extent that the Germans would like to get out of the Euro as they feel they do not want to support the fragility of countries in crisis such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy.

Do not the French and other eurozone countries recognize that the cost of pensions will drive many countries to bankruptcy. When many Europeans look at the UK, they scoff particularly at the raising of the pension age that is likely to reach 70 over a period of time.  There average ages of retirement age varies but in most countries people retire in their fifties and in Italy and France only 12%  are working beyond 60 years old.

Citizens should realise that there is a pensions time bomb with the average continental EU state pension equating to almost 60% of salary and with a much longer period of retirement, governments cannot afford it and it will drive many countries to bankruptcy.  A recent survey of 25 countries scored the UK highly and the affordability and sustainability of our pensions and France at the bottom. Those countries with such generous pensions and early retirement ages simply can no longer afford them and it will drive them to ruin. There needs to be a massive reformation, not only to increase working age  but to reduce the actual value, which would be so unpopular that one wonders if the their governments have the guts to take the action necessary.

In another time we should be screaming at our government at the unfairness of our pensions which are the lowest in Europe but with the aging population, the ratio of workers to pensions set to double and the current crisis we are in a stronger position to survive than our neighbours. Meanwhile proposals to raise the retirement age in France have typically been met with mass protests for what is a diminutive step to fight debt.

I am not suggesting by any means that there is reason for complacency in the UK situation and there is still danger of stalling economic growth as the cuts bite deeper but at least we have recognised the seriousness of sovereign debt while other bury their heads in the sand.

In the fragile countries of the eurozone, where sovereign debt could precipitate a financial collapse and even  in countries that fear the contagion, people are turning to gold as a protection and nowhere more so than in the strongest economy, Germany, where there is unprecedented investment in gold. In Britain we do not have a history with private individuals turning to  gold but rather we might buy a gold coin for commemorative purposes.  We are fortunate that we have so far not suffered hyper inflation, major currency devaluation or physical invasion so we do not hoard gold or in general even understand how gold can protect family wealth even though we have some of the best conditions in the world for gold investment. No VAT, no Capital Gains Tax on legal tender gold coins and up to 40% tax relief if we use gold within a Self Investment Pension Plan (SIPP). We need to save more to pay for our retirement and make wise investments, diversify our portfolios, utilise SIPPs and last but not least be aware of the potential of gold to protect our wealth.

Maurice Hall

The Gold Train is a mystery emanating from WWII but the almost mythical  status developed because of the secrecy particularly in the USA. In reality it is story of horror, mass murder, theft and greed not revealed until Bill Clinton created the Presidential Advisory Commission on Holocaust Assets in the United States and had become a symbol of all that was lost by Holocaust victims

We begin in Hungary where prior to the war almost one fifth of the population was Jewish and had been integrated into the countries fabric. The government was increasingly sympathetic to fascism and gradually tightened laws against the Jews eventually the Arrow Cross party became the fascist government of Hungary. As the war went badly for Germany things got worse and with the Soviet Army only 100 miles from the border Hitler launched an invasion of Hungary in March 1944.

Until 1944 the Hungarian government had not cooperated with the Nazi but this all changed as the facist dominated government were eager and willing to collaborate and the SS saw the opportunity to continue their work of mass murder to solve the Jewish problem. Consequently the estimated population of 800,000 Jews were forced to hand overall of their valuables to government official including gems, gold, jewelry, gold coins, silver, wedding rings in fact anything of value. With typical efficiency everything was bagged, boxed and identified with receipt given to the owners.

After handing over their valuables the majority of Jews at a rate reaching 12,000 per day were shipped off to the concentration camps of Auschwitz-Birkenau where most never survived.  Meanwhile the Hungarian authorities resorted all the confiscated valuables into categories destroying the identification of the original owners but the inventory was fairly exact.

Car from the Gold Train

By December 1944 the Red Army were on the outskirts of Budapest and a decision was made to evacuate the Jewish booty and this was supervised by a Hungarian Árpád Toldi, the commissioner of Jewish affairs appointed by the SS. The valuables, estimated at around $5 billion in today’s terms, were packed into  a 42 car freight train that was designated for Germany. As the train moved slowly westwards through Hungary and Austria. Toldi bought off bands of marauding troops with small batches of loot but large amounts of gold and precious stones were off loaded into  trucks along the route and stories of Nazi gold  springing up all along the route ensured the  “Gold Train”  became one of the many myths of Nazi treasure.

However, the majority of the loot ended up in allied hands. Toldi  had two trucks loaded with valuables and they headed towards the French zone where they were seized by French troops at St. Anton. According to a report written by the Central Board of Jews in Hungary and referring to available reports at the time the trucks seized by French troops contained:

31    cases of gold

2        case of gold coins

3        cases of gold watches

8        cases of brilliants

2        cases of selected brilliants and Pearls

The French returned these valuable to Hungary but they did not reach the hands of any remaining owners or relations, but were mostly were stolen by the communists.

The Gold Train eventually fell into the hands of the United States Army nesr the town of Werfen in Austria in May 1945 and according to the Central board contained the following:

10              45kg cases of gold

1                100kg cases of gold coins

18              35kg case of gold jewels

32              30-60kg cases of gold watches

1560          cases of silver of different weights

1                case of silver bricks

1                trunk of currencies and brilliants

100            artistic picture

3000          Persian carpets

2                wagons of mixed valuable

American soldiers guarding the gold train

The Central Board of Jews and the Hungarian government were aware that the majority of the contents were in American custody and passionate pleas for them to return the valuables to Hungary, where they could be returned to their rightful owners or surviving family members, were continually ignored. Despite the clear country of origin ownership,  Americans decide that the contents were  ownerless property and that it should be sold for the benefit of non-repatriable  refugees who could be accessed through the International Refugee Organization (IRO). It is a matter of fact that some of the property from the train ended in the possession of high ranking US Army officers but the majority was sold off through US Army exchange stores in Europe and the remainder auctioned off in New York in 1948  with proceeds going to the IRO.  Approximately 200 paintings seized from the train should have been returned to Hungary but they came into possession of the Austrian government and disappeared to this day they have not surfaced.

As a result of Bill Clinton’s creation and subsequent freedom of information in 2001, there was a lawsuit against the United States government. This was filed by Hungarian Holocaust survivors in a Florida district Federal Court for the government’s mishandling of the assets on the Hungarian Gold Train. In 2005, the government reached a settlement worth $25.5 million. The money was allocated for distribution to various Jewish social service agencies for the benefit of Holocaust survivors. Hungarian Jewish survivors did not receive any money directly so justice was not seen to be done.

Árpád Toldi

There was gold, gold coin, jewelry and precious stone that did not end up in allied hands, spirited away by Toldi during the long  journey and the amount returned to Hungary, from the French. that was stolen by the communists and ended up in Russian hands.  The trail has disappeared  leaving many unanswered questions, the most important of which where is the gold now ?.

Toldi himself tried to enter Switzerland with a convoy of trucks but was turned away at the border. After hiding for some time in the French zone he gave himself up to the French authorities and led them to some bags of precious stones.  After a few months detention he was released and then disappeared. It is rumored that he lived under the protection of high ranking French officials but not substantiated.

This is a terrible story where thousands of people lost their lives and their wealth. Could it happen today, unlikely, but less unlikely is a family losing its wealth through crisis.   If a family were to put aside some of its wealth in the form of tangible assets in a safe haven, such as well documented vault in a stable country such as Switzerland, then there is a strong chance of surviving that crisis

Maurice Hall

I was listening to a programme on BBC Radio which is always an informative station and my ears pricked up on a discussion on the 2009 Bordeaux vintage which is reputed to be the best in 60 years.  I like wine very much but the grand Grands Crus of Bordeaux which have long catered for the discerning tastes of the elite in the western world are beyond my means. However, I thought it would be an interesting to understand why the wines are so great and if I had a rush of blood to the head and splashed out, what would be the best value for money. To my surprise there was little in the way of comparison of the various producers but a great deal on the destination of the very best of French wine

From the baroque tasting room of Chateau Mouton Rothschild, to the grand hall of the Union des Grands Crus, Chinese delegations declared their intent to siphon off huge quantities of first growths, the very best wines.  The price of the first growths are likely to cost £4000 per 12 bottle case and even as high as £1000 per bottle.  According to the Chinese importers money does not seem to be a problem and Lafite-Rothschild is said to be the tipple of choice for the Chinese industrialist.  Private companies are soaring and property values are rising fast so people have a lot of money.

You may wonder why I am writing about wine on a blog whose main interest is gold. Whilst critics were in raptures with the top wines from Haut-Brion, Margaux and Latour it seems to matter little to the Chinese consumer who are reported to glug their wine or dilute even the most expensive bottles with lemonade. The reason is one of economics, no longer do these famous vintages end up in the cellars of the rich in the western world and particularly recession hit America; but they have become prestigious gifts amongst Chinese business people.

Throughout history, all great powers have their day Egyptian, Greek, Roman. More recently countries such as Spain, France, and Great Britain all had periods of unrivalled power. Today, the United States still reigns as the world’s sole superpower but it is on the brink and is being credibly challenged by rising powers in Asia, India and more importantly China who have designs on world financial dominance. It is a process that will have huge implications for investors over the coming years. It is no surprise India is the greatest consumer of gold and China the largest producer.

The balance of power is swinging eastwards. First the West exported industrial plant to Asia leading to investment in technology in the East which coupled with a cheap workforce produced a number of startups. Their cost effectiveness captured markets normally supplied from the West and eventually western domestic markets were flooded by cheaper imports leading to a decline in the manufacturing base and vast trade deficits. Now we find our selves in a situation where we are even being financed by the East. Iconic UK brands MG and Jaguar are Chinese owned and the new Californian bullet train was not only funded by money borrowed from China but built by a Chinese company.

Sovereign debt is threatening the fabric of western society and dragging down our currencies. It reminiscent of the 1930s as austerity measures have been running in Ireland fore some time, problems in Greece and Spain have lead to strikes and a general strike is threatened in Italy. Portugal is in the same mould as Spain and Italy, later additions to the EU from former Eastern Europe are in great difficulty particularly Hungary, France has to tighten its belt and Germany is in a domestic struggle over the Euro. Outside the Euro zone, the UK debt is of a greater GDP of all but Spain and its only because our repayment has a longer time span that we are not in quite the same mess as Greece. If the June budget does not show sufficient promise to bring down our deficit our triple –A rating maybe under threat.

So how does the American superpower stand?. The economy is the country’s top concern, with persistently high unemployment the greatest threat the public sees. Eight of 10 Americans rate joblessness a high risk to the economy in the next two years, outranking the federal budget deficit, which is cited by 7 of 10. An increase in taxes is named as a high risk by almost 6 of 10. Fewer than 1 in 3 Americans think the economy will improve in the next six months….Only 32 percent of poll respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 40 percent who said so in September.” (Bloomberg).

The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress. ( Reuter 8^th June). Economic contraction will continue with record numbers of foreclosures, personal bankruptcies, the highest rate of unemployment with millions more jobs to be lost as purse strings tighten.

Going back to the origination of this theme if Chinese businessmen can afford to mix lemonade with £1000 bottles of Bordeaux to impress friends and associates then there truly has been a swing to the East and that is where the demand for Gold will be driven. Currently the USD is the reserve currency but as power is being challenged so is the dollar as  both Russia and China are pushing for alternatives where gold may play a part.

Read the china Gold Report on this blog

Maurice Hall

Grading is probably the most controversial and by far the most important area of coin collecting and there are almost no grading guides for world coins. Grading issues have caused disputes between buyers and sellers since collecting begun and will continue to do so for ever more. Grading coins accurately is a skill acquired in time and after looking at many similar/identical coins in all ranges of condition. Many coins fall in between grades, and so terms such as ‘nearly VF’, ‘good VF’, ‘gem BU’ are encountered. The numerical system (1 -70) popular in the USA is not common in Europe but it does allow greater flexibility within key grades. We should bear in mind that their grading system is more generous than that of the UK. E.g. the lower ranges of Almost Uncirculated ( AU50 – 57) allows for some wear which is not acceptable in the UK, so care is needed. There are also differences between European countries where FDC (Fleur De Coin) is used to describe an uncirculated coin but in the UK, FDC is a perfect coin that could only be attributed to the best of proofs and is equivalent to the to the top number on the American system (MS70) and is rarely found

We are not numismatists and our concern is only with gold and silver coins as an investment so the grade is not as critical as it is for a collector of rare coins. Nevertheless the condition of a coin is important and numismatists agree that in most cases the condition of the coin is more important than its rarity.

There are key grades and grades between these grades so it is often easier to start with buckets, Circulated, Almost Uncirculated and Uncirculated.

The coin should be graded on its weakest side, look for overall wear and loss of design detail such as strands of hair, feathers or coats of arms.  Detecting wear can be made more difficult where relief is low particularly applicable to coins of Edward VII and George V

Some tips for sovereigns

The majority of Sovereigns since 1820 contain Benedetto  Pistrucci’s fantastic engraving of St. George slaying the dragon and there are some high points that can indicate wear.  Look at the helmet above the eye this is the first place wear occurs, the strap across St George’s chest, the fingers on the hand, signs of wear on the reins, relief of the sword against the flank. This reverse covered a number of monarchs on the obverse. In general look for detail of the ears on males and hair on females.

Look at the example below of a 1918 Halfcrown. With examination under magnification the slightest rubbing can be seen on the ear, cheek and moustache. A very nice coin but not Uncirculated

1918 Halfcrown AU (About Uncirculated) American AU58-59

KEY GRADES

I have listed the Key grades below with some sample coins of various denominations to give an idea of grading but please remember this is subjective and maybe variable in the eyes of the expert who would examine with magnification.

Poor: A very worn coin but better than a smooth disc. Inscriptions worn off, date illegible, only outline of design visible. Such coins are generally of no value to a collector.

Fair: A heavily worn coin but date and denomination legible, type recognisable. Very little detail visible , worth no more than the metal value

Penny Fair American F2

Good (G): (sometimes Mediocre) Inscriptions and date considerably worn but legible. Generally worth no more than the metal value

Very Good (VG): Considerable wear over the whole coin, and high spots worn through. Coins in this or the previous grades are really only collectable if extremely rare and generally worth no more than the metal value

Fine (F): Worn over whole area, but only the highest spots are worn completely through. Some of the hair volume should be visable but not individual strands (US Grade about VF)

Farthing F (Fine) American F12-14

Very Fine (VF): Detail clear, but obvious evidence of limited circulation. High spots worn but detail remains. More hair detail is evident and also detail of other designs. Traces of mint lustre may linger amongst the letters of the inscription. (US Grade about XF)

Sixpence VF (Very Fine) American VF25-30

Extremely Fine (EF): A coin with little sign of being circulated. Slight wear on high spots on close inspection, and all other detail clear and sharp with minimal scratches and marks. Much mint lustre may remain. (US Grade about AU)

Half Penny EF(Extremly Fine) American XF40 - 44

Almost Uncirculated (AU): Not quite in Uncirculated condition could be down graded because of heavy bag marks, edge knocks or other undesirable feature but without the slight wear that determine it to be EF, would usually contain more than half of its mint luster.

Florin gEF (Good Extremly Fine) American AU About Uncirculated AU55

Uncirculated (UNC): No wear, although it is possible for the design not to be fully struck up in the minting process. Not perfect as there may be bag abrasions and knocks through mass production. The coin should have most of its mint luster present. Older coins may be tarnished or toned.

Shilling UNC ( Uncirculated) American MS60-62

Brilliant Uncirculated (BU): There will be no visible signs of wear or handling and ideally no bag marks.  Usually implies full mint lustre, in other words no toning or tarnish.

Half Penny BU (Brilliant Uncirculated) American MS67-69

FDC: (Fleur de Coin) Perfect mint state, with no abrasions or marks, and full lustre. Usually applied to proof coins only, as coins intended for circulation are in contact with others during production.

Penny FDC (Fleur De Coin) American MS70

Proof: Not a condition, but the coin has been struck using specially prepared dies and polished blanks, and the minting process has been carried out usually twice with extra pressure to ensure the die is filled. A characteristic of proof coins is that they have very sharp edges because of the high pressures used to ensure that the metal flows into all details of the design.

All the above photographs are by courtesy of Wybrit British Coins

The table below attempts to show in detail the Key Grades in bold and grades in between

Maurice Hall

We are well aware of France as the leading gold hoarder in Europe both in the central bank with second highest reserve and by private citizens who are reputed to have over 3000 tonnes in private hands. French gold is mainly in the form of gold Napoleons widely distributed as safe haven for family wealth. Whereas Italy is a consumer of gold whose jewellery industry is the world’s leader a tradition that goes back to Roman times; but they are not lacking in gold reserves either.  It is certainly worth exploring the Italian gold situation.

Central banks

The gold bullion stored beneath Rome’s Palazzo Koch stands at 2,451.8 tonnes, the fourth  largest central bank hoard in the world, just behind France as third in Europe. It has been unchanged at 2,451.8 tonnes for the last 11 years or more making Italy the only Eurozone nation not to sell any of its gold reserves since 1998. It’s also the only signatory to the Central Bank Gold Agreements of 1999 and 2004 not to sell any gold either. Italy’s fellow CBGA signatories, in contrast, have shrunk their gold reserves by more than one quarter on average.

Central Bank Holdings

Country                      Tonnes

USA                            8133.5

Germany                     3412.6

IMF                             3217.3

France                         2487.1

Italy                            2451.8

Gold Jewellery

Italy has a large jewellery industry contributing to a considerable portion of Italy’s economy and is located in the regions of Veneto, Toscana, Lombardia, Lazio and Piedmont. About 45,000 workers engaged in this sector and there are two major clusters located in Vicenza and Arezzo where there are over 2500 companies employing around 22,000 workers.

Fine Italian gold jewellery in both its handmade and mass manufactured designs generally continues to hold the lead in customer appeal for a variety of styles and products. Many Italian gold designs reflect hundreds of years of influence while still appealing to those who value trendy style, romance and quality. The country remains as largest producer of gold jewellery in the world and its exquisite designs date back to the fifth century. Over 400 tons of the precious metal a year is processed and shaped into beautiful bracelets, necklaces, earrings, rings, medallions, broaches and other items that are worn with pride by both men and women in every corner of the globe.

The home of the country’s first goldsmith organization is in Vicenza and dates back to the early 1300’s. From that time until the present, artisans have passed the trade down to subsequent generations. The city is also known to produce the best machinery for producing precious metal chains used in some of the finest pieces world wide. Combining machinery and handcrafted techniques, a goldsmith may produce only approximately 12 inches a day of chain to be later fashioned into necklaces or other finished pieces.

This technique takes years to learn and goldsmiths who achieve success in the art of chain production in Vicenza produce products that are adored by many jewelry connoisseurs.

Italy has faced substantial competition from lower-cost manufacturing centers in China, Turkey and India in recent years and its fabrication has declined. Its domestic market has suffered too as consumers, against the background of a sluggish economy and increased competition.

Despite this, Italy remains the undisputed leader of fashionable and high quality jewellery design and the city of Vicenza hosts the leading trade fair each year. This is not a position of complacency  as Turkey has the skill, a growing market is determined to overtake Italy  While demand for basic products is declining, that for more innovative and high quality pieces is now showing healthy growth.

Vincenza Oro’s fair for yellow gold remains a high selling point, and this year’s fair paid tribute to the market with Gold Expressions, a collaboration between the World Gold Council, the Vincenza fair, and sixty-nine premier Italian goldsmiths. The exhibit featured new and creative works (almost all in yellow gold) by the goldsmith artists invited to participate. The works are now scheduled to tour the China, the Middle East, and the United States as part of an international marketing campaign

The sector is coming from a very long and deep recession. The demand for gold and jewellery in 2009 recorded a steep fall of about 18% at world level with very marked downturns in the United States (-17%), in the Arab countries and in Europe. The sole sign of solidity came from the Chinese market where there was a 12% increase in the demand for gold and 8% growth in jewellery.
The forecasts indicate a market recovery for 2010, the scale of which will however be linked to the performance of the economy in the various parts of the world.

Gold Expressions is a collaboration between the World Gold Council, the Vincenza fair, and sixty-nine premier Italian goldsmiths. The  tour of China, India, the Middle East, and the United States as part of an international marketing campaign was successful particularly in the worlds greatest market, India, where the quality has attracted the new rich Indians.

Italian Gold Coins

20 Lire Victor Emanual

Italy for a large period of time was in the form of a number of states with different governing bodies, because of which various kinds of coins as currency were used. However, “fiorino d’oro” or the gold coins of the republic of Florence were probably the first European coin to be made and used in larger quantities. The time of the birth of the first Italian gold coin is estimated to around 1252. This gold coin had approximately 3.5 grams of gold content. Apart from fiorino d’oro, many other famous gold coins used as currency were ducat, scudo d’oro and sovranos. Italy began using the currency Lire from 1861 and were in production until 1940. The most readily available of modern Italian gold coins is the 20 lire of Victor Emanuel and Umberto 1

Italian Gold Coins as a safe haven

The Italian gold coins have now attained the status of being a collectors’ item. People buy and sell these coins and investors take them as safe investments because of rising prices of gold. Whilst the economy of Italy is not in such a dangerous state as Greece, it is incorporated in the Southern European euro demise.  An Economy Ministry document trimmed the forecast for 2010 gross domestic product growth to 1.0 percent from 1.1 percent and slashed the 2011 forecast to 1.5 percent from 2.0 percent. As fears grew of contagion from Greece’s debt crisis to other euro zone countries, Rome raised its public debt forecast to 118.4 percent of GDP this year, up from a forecast of 116.9 percent made in January. The 2011 forecast was hiked to 118.7 percent from 116.5 percent and 2012 raised to 117.2 percent from 114.6 percent.

In times of impending crisis families who understand the situation will try and protect their wealth in intangible gold.

Maurice Hall