France’s loss of the triple A rating sharpens the focus on what needs to be done to avoid the Eurozone’s crisis deepening further. What happens in France in the immediate as well as the long term future is therefore of concern to those outside France as well as those within. This week it was made clear that through increased IMF funding, the UK is likely to be contributing to the bail out funds, although the UK remains committed to countries not currencies. Of particular concern to English readers is the likely reaction in France to the required social reforms. And of course the flight into gold helps strengthen the hand of the wise investor.

The loss of the triple A is only one of the superficial symptoms of the trends of 2012. The economic crisis continues to deepen, which may well cause the price of gold to climb more quickly than envisaged, but not initially.

The consequences for the economy…

This is not due to having been warned of the possibility of such a loss. Since October last year, the agency Moody had been holding the sword of Damocles over Gallic heads.
The downgrading of the French credit rating from AAA to AA by the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s has far graver consequences than would be implied by the speeches of leaders who wish to give reassurances, a mere few months ahead of the elections.

The interest rates at which France borrows and which are already twice as high as those of Germany will increase, to cover the risk of default. The first direct impact on the economy is the flight of investors and thus a fall in the CAC 40 index.
And for individuals
Higher interest rates on mortgages, tax hikes, diminished access to credit… the French will have to curb their spending. All the large companies in which the State has a stake (EDF, GDF, France Telecom, Renault, SNCF…) will see their financing costs increase, which inevitably will impact the expenditure of individuals, not to mention the degradation of public services.

Is the A lost forever?

Of course, France can regain its triple A, but how soon and, especially, at what cost?
The corporate VAT plan is only a tiny initiative when viewed in the light of the catastrophic impact of such a downgrading. According to Norbert Gaillard, consultant at the World Bank, France can only recover its AAA at the expense of important social reforms and “a drastic reduction in public expenditure”. Flexibility of the job market for greater competitiveness, extending the period of contributions to pension funds, elimination of the 35 hour working week… Are the French ready to give up their social gains whilst increasing their daily expenditure? Working more and earning less money?

The consequences for gold

As soon as the credit rating of a country is downgraded, the cautious markets fall, demand for gold increases and hence its price. Initially, the need of banks for liquidity can result in a massive withdrawal following the resale of credit and a fall in the price of gold on the markets, as has been already more or less the case since December. One should therefore take the opportunity to strengthen one’s position on gold and buy now because the secondary effect once the selling off stops will see: gold reach new highs this year breaking the $2000 an ounce barrier and beyond.

Fools or Gold?

Once the dominoes of Debt start to tumble the skies the limit but more importantly, when states fail, currencies collapse or sovereign debt strangles everyday life, where would you rather have your “money”?
In a tangible precious asset with perennial true value?
Or tied up in the worldwide web of debt derivatives, Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) and untraceable off-ledger accounts?

The choice is simple, give your money to the crooks you’ve been conditioned to trust with blind faith and risk losing everything or buy something solid that you own and trust yourself to manage it properly?

It’s what they call a no-brainer!

Watch the Ads they didn’t want you to see here – read on

There are many theories surrounding the manipulation of the Gold Market and the Gold Spot price but few doubt that it takes place, orchestrated by some greater beings that seek to control the money supply.

In a recent cynical twist, gold has been effectively censored off the air of a host of major US TV Networks working in collusion with the Obama administration and the Fed.
An established gold investment company recently made two TV ads to be aired across the networks. The ads feature caricatures of Obama, Bernanke and Pat Boone who narrates the story. The latter works for the company Swiss America and has long been an advocate of the virtues of gold versus dollars.
The first of the ads takes a humorous jibe at Bernanke’s Wall Street reputation for being “helicopter Ben” , ready to dump money on a crisis.

“made-up” reasons for ban?

The reasons given for rejecting the ads vary from ;
• Comcast who explained that it “doesn’t meet our standards on public symbol. The Comcast Public Symbol Policy apparently specifies that the “use of the name or likeness of the President of the United States and/or the Presidential Seal for endorsing commercial purposes must be authorized by the White House.”
• Fox News said the “representation of public figures is something we try to avoid.”
• CNN/HLN told Swiss America the commercials were “not appropriate for the current political landscape.”

Swiss America CEO Craig Smith said “The networks’ reaction shocked me,” Smith said. “It’s a threat to First Amendment rights when a commercial message is rejected not because it is inaccurate or misleading, but because it makes what is perceived to be a political statement the networks want to avoid.”

Smith told WND he was concerned that the networks were protecting Obama and Bernanke.
“All we are saying in these two commercials is what dozens of responsible professional economists are saying every day,” Smith said;

“Gold investment as a responsible diversification strategy when governments printing of fiat currencies with abandon risk unleashing inflationary principles.”

Inflationary pressures are building globally and no-one has an answer to them rising and the consequent economic impact.
It is a common known fact that storing gold through a crisis and inflation is the BEST way to protect your wealth value and its purchasing power. This has been the case for 6000 years.

Gold can never be worth zero – it has intrinsic value.
Fiat currency can become worthless – its only value is that of a piece of paper

The Ban backfires

However, the censorship has backfired as Google TV accepted the ads which will eventually be shown throughout the networks via Google TV!
These humorous videos tell a very straight and simple story and the only possible reason for banning them is because of how close to the TRUTH they really are – and that hurts the Politocrats who believe they are all supreme and mighty to judge over us, control us and bankrupt us.

They are so desperate to cling on to power they will do anything – except we are not the fools they take us for – are we?

Austerity = Rising x (Inflation + Taxation + Unemployment)
=Misey + Poverty + Social unrest

“In the long run we are all dead”

There is about Keynes’s famous maxim just a smack of the superior viewpoint (I will not call it wisdom) of the Bloomsbury Group, but this is because it was he who said it. It is indeed a singularly commonplace remark, and surely had no place in the thoughts of an economist. After all, the economist’s stock in trade is getting and spending, the provisioning, manufacturing, storing, and distributing of the very stuff of Life!

While a truism, taken as the premise of moral counsel the remark is pernicious. There is also a sense in which it isn’t even true. You and I may be soon for the grave, but that isn’t yet true of our children, or of those generations unborn. No human being is conceived in isolation: we are born into webs of family connections, which expand into webs of friendship, business and social ties. Behind all those webs, lies the vast concourse of mankind…. There is much to be said for Burke’s idea of an unbroken chain of inheritance and responsibility, encompassing all life, past, present and to come: it reminds us that in the long run the end of life is – living.

Good things are still possible in the future, as long as you have tangible, physical assets that are still worth something – your survival depends on their value when the economic crisis deepens and money as we know it reverts to its true value – bits of printed paper.

Euro RIP

By Mark Rogers

Last May in an article with the heading “Has Jean Claude Trichet gone mad”, we explained why the move to increase interest rates initiated at that time had, in our eyes, little chance of being sustainable.

Confirmation came on November 3rd, 2011 with a fall in the official market rate of the European Central Bank, the ECB.

On taking up his post, its new governor, the Italian Mario Draghi, decided for his baptism of fire in the media to lower the interest rate by 0.25 points – this whilst he is supposed to give his first official press conference next Thursday.

What is necessary to understand by the taking of this decision that we had largely anticipated, is that Europe and generally all of the said developed countries have now fallen into the “trap of low rates”.

The best example to illustrate this phenomenon “of the trap of low rates” is of course Japan which for several decades now has been in the situation of financial impossibility with regard to increasing its interest rates.

To finance not the refunding of the debt but solely the interest on the debt, it is vital that the rates should be as close as possible zero. The slightest increase puts the public finances of all nations in danger.

The second reason it is not possible to raise rates is that there is quite simply no growth, nor return to growth, and that here too Japan perfectly illustrates this situation of lack of growth over the very long term.

This decision is excellent for gold. This news is excellent for the banks which will be able to increase their margins through cheaper recapitalization with the ECB and by lending at a higher price to their customers (reconstitution of margins). This news is good for companies because by lowering rates that can make it possible for the euro to drop slightly compared to the dollar giving some breathing space to our exporters. This news is excellent for borrowers at variable rates. This news is excellent to limit and support the risks of a new unavoidable recession (which the ECB expects) in Europe because of the massive austerity plans affecting almost all of the European countries.

The Italians had nicknamed Mario Draghi… super Mario! Our new governor of the ECB has only to finally announce an “unconventional program of quantitative easing” to ignite a bullish trend in the financial markets. This barbaric expression simply means that the ECB would use the money printing instrument according to needs. Like Switzerland. Like the USA. Like the United Kingdom.

The message communicated today by Mario Draghi is an important reorientation. We have from now on one certainty. Rates can no longer go up. We expect for the next few months that the money printing machines will be brought into use. If the attacks continue against Italy, it will be the only solution possible.

Until now the Germans totally reject this solution. If the situation worsens, they will have to accept the recourse for the printing of money, or… leave the euro.
Germany’s exit from the euro is the less considered scenario and yet for us it is the one that is most likely to occur.

It would undoubtedly be the best solution to put an end to the European psychodrama.

Translated from an article by Charles SANNAT
Director of AuCoffre.com
Economic studies
www.aucoffre.com

The problems for Greece just seem to get worse and with an insurmountable burden of debt, repayments and austerity measures there seems to be no reasonable or predictable way out for Greece for decades if not longer.
So they feel backed into a corner with little or no choice and therefore nothing much left to lose.
The announcement of a Greek referendum announced out of the blue by the Prime Minister seemed to surprise all the European Heads of State yet they have been in direct dialogue with him and each other constantly – so why haven’t they talked about it before?

Hidden agenda

Papandréou is gettin ready for action and implementation using the referendum as a smoke-screen.
It is no surprise therefore to learn that in the past couple of days the Greeks have replaced all of their senior military commanders; The Army, the Airforce and the Navy have all seen their chiefs sacked and replaced with officials much closer to the Papandréou cause – FACT. They have also removed various other members of the military hierarchy just below the Chiefs to ensure a thorough clearout of all positions of importance and their replacements are all hand picked partisans.

Referendum ou coup d’état?

So what lies behind his surprise decision to conduct a referendum of the people over the bailout proposals from the EU? Is it simply a return to democratic values, has he lost the plot? He has no other viable options?
In short he is preparing for a military coup d’etat which will impose strict marshall law on the streets, force people to work and result in Greece absolving itself of all known debt (how convenient), leaving the euro and the European Union. It is also possibly the only chance left to Greece which will otherwise be burdened with debt, austerity and a miserable existence for at least fifty years.

Think of it as logical – no more debt, no more EU rules, no more French and German rescue plans – just back to zero (which is better than where they are now at minus a Trillion euros and mounting with interest!)
This whole crisis has been a joke and the politicians and bankers continue to flood the media with lies that everything will be alright.
The Greeks are bust several times over and will never repay this debt , the interest or the loans it has received since the EU first bailed out their fraudulent, corrupt, chaotic, dishonest and shrinking economy.

It’s like someone having spent the night in a casino gambling away their fortune for their own private personal greed and gain nut because they didn’t win, lost everything the Casino says it’s OK and let’s you off with all the losses you owe them. Of course casinos are not this accommodating and you’ll end up crippled or worse for your troubles if you don’t honour your debt.
There again Greece, honour and debt appear here for the first time in a sentence otherwise they have no place together.

So what happens next?

Sarkozy and Merkel will continue to lie to the world that they have “the plan” to save everyone, Europe, the Greeks, the banks etc etc.
In reality their G20 is a scam and the promises they made last week to raise €1000 Billion for European bailouts to come is flawed – talk is so cheap with Sarkozy and he has a history of making great TV promises with a view to getting his face on TV a little more but the promises never arrive until he reiterates the same thing a year later as a new promise (usually most of the TV watching “sheep” have forgotten what he said before and of course the media play along with him as they must).

A military Junta in Europe

Greece will find it tough to go it alone but what other realistic chance does it have or does it deserve? None.
The problem does not end there because what will be the effect from the Billons of written-off Greek debt?
French banks will collapse, maybe British and German too. European states will have even more debt from the money they gave to bailout the Greeks which they will obviously never see again but still have to create / print / pretend to have had in the first place.
Once again their credibility will be demonstrated as none existant but they will continue to lie to anyone that listens – everything is alright! Yes, we remember they said that in 2008.

What is extraordinary is that the masses (or sheep) continue to believe in their politicians and bankers like it were some ordained right they have to tell us what to do. Fact is both will do anything they can to benefit themselves and very little to really help any of us. Their power and money are an addiction that needs feeding and they are forever hungry.

Don’t be a fool forever- make your own decisions and don’t believe everything fed to you by the TV.

Remember that it is not in the interest of governments to tell you the whole truth – they cannot afford for you to know that!

When crisis hits

No banks, no cash, no petrol, no shopping, no wages, no credit cards, no invices paid – what then – anarchy, civil unrest, violence, robbery?
It will be survival of the fittest and the protected.
What insurance do you have against a world in crisis, civil unrest and without paper or plastic money?
The only way to survive will be to barter with what you have – this works if you have something valuable to trade like silver coins or even gold. If you don’t have something valuable start planting seeds to grow the food you will need to live – that is of course if you have a garden.

Source AFP

We are late July and it is time to look at the gold accounts for the first half of 2011! Hinde Capital Fund Management conducted a study in June 2011 entitled “A Golden Renaissance, Precious Metal Dynamics ” which confirms the upward trends in physical gold (but not in “paper gold”).
Another analysis conducted by Goldsphere Edmond from the Rothschild Fund also confirmed this rise in demand in countries with a strong geopolitical risk despite stagnant mining production.
We were expecting a correction in the Gold Trend this summer and yet just the opposite has happened.
The Eurozone and American debt crises have helped this push upwards which has not been this significant since the beginning of the century.
Gold has risen an average of 19% per year since 2001. It is now facing an unprecedented demand.
Since the United States imposed the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and then subsequently flooded the market with it to increase consumption, the dollar has been heavily devalued. Their ability to stifle the price of gold has waned and globally investors have sought to ditch large reserves of weakening dollars for something safer. These investors initially thought the Euro may be the path to take but they got it wrong again and are now flooding into the only sure refuge which is physical gold. It is incredible how so many of these high flying know-it alls seemed oblivious to the obvious risks in the Dollar and then the Euro. Do they really research their options or just deal over expensive meals and golf holidays. Could they not see the blatant crisi of Sovereign debt affecting the major economies of the world? One has to ask what they have been doing for the last ten years and how apparently well-informed intellects make such poor judgments? (Must be the constant intoxication of self-appreciation, greed, drugs and alcohol)

A steadily increasing demand since 2003

Particular strength can be found in emerging nations where the demand for gold is rising to the detriment of the Green-back: 12% for India and 21% for China. Also, Mexico has filled its coffers of 93 tons of gold in the 1st quarter of 2011. Asia accounts for 62% of the demand, some of it cultural such as in India, but also other countries now active in the market are seeking to catch up for lost time (private investment now allowed in China) but also because “Governments wish to increasingly diversify their foreign exchange reserves and to disinvest from the US dollar or other currencies in trouble” (Option Finance Agency, France).

Other sectors such as jewellery are also in high demand (+ 55%) despite the rise in the price of gold (+ 3.1%). For this first half of 2011, the demand increased overall by 25%.
The paradox is that the demand for investment is still low, which proves that the course gold has nothing to do with any speculative flows. Indeed, it is also estimated that there is a mass of net flows out of “paper gold” (such as ETFs) equivalent to 55 tonnes. Overall, investments in gold are less and less by speculators, which is positive for the gold price trend. The attraction of a safe haven and sure value during these difficult and uncertain times is populating the gold investment market with serious investors, both private and institutional. This is hardly surprising when one calculates the increasing risks attached to most other forms of investments (which are largely based on owning bits of paper and have proved catastrophic to large funds in recent years).

Physical gold, a healthy investment

This study also shows that despite a growing demand, mining production did not increase accordingly and in fact was virtually stagnant. Recent fears have also surfaced that South African mines will be closed by strike action.

Another surprising finding is that gold sold by individuals to be recycled is steadily declining. This shows that the masses wish to hold on to something of value and also that they are fed up with being ripped off by those crooks who run incessant TV ads.
Even in Greece and despite the crisis, gold plays its role as a life insurance and safe haven since it is often kept in the home. Despite the attractive gold prices Greeks will not sell that they already have and they are still likely to buy more as a protection for their future survival.
Finally, another unexpected discovery, physical gold investment is disconnected from gold shares (the gold shares represent only 1% of world market capitalization). This disconnection is partly explained by the increase in the costs of production for mining companies and the difficulties encountered by countries which are politically unstable (Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire).

“Khrysos (Gold) is the child of Zeus, neither moth nor rust devoureth it; but man is devoured by this supreme possession” (Pindar, c. 522-422 BC).

Gold companies should eventually be seen as worthwhile value but for the moment it is physical gold that is benefiting from investment because it is a real, tangible asset that you own and not just a promise.

On Goldcoin.org we have always preferred physical gold to “paper gold” for many reasons, but if one were to cite a single reason it is that the providers/suppliers of  ETFs (Exchange Traded Fund) can fail themselves as a Company which means you lose everything as you do not own a specific piece or pieces of gold, they do. On the other hand, if all ETF holders asked to recover in physical form their investment in gold, it would be impossible because they have sold more ETFs than they have Gold– sound familiar? It is the equivalent of Fractional Reserve Banking but applied to gold because these providers work and think like banks – and we know where that type of mentality led us to!!
Unbelievable Shallow Arrogance
Finally, as we approach the eve of the US debt deadline it is worth paying note to the despicable behaviour of so called elected democratic representatives who would be chastised in primary school for the same childish squabbling. Worse still is listening to them speak as they grandstand before the world’s media playing out their silly games. They sound like caricatures from the Simpsons with their phony accents and voices and yet we are to believe these are the best the “greatest nation in the free world “has to offer – I pity regular Americans who are governed by such an inconsiderate bunch of self-interested marionettes. Here at Goldcoin.org we have previously discussed the true nature of these politocrats in “Conspiracy, Collusion and Con-men – Why don’t they want you to buy Gold?”

As they push ever closer to the deadline it seems that they actually want the US to default and let’s face it so should we all – it’s about time the Fed and the Financial giants got their come-uppance by losing everything so we could start again and hopefully with something better- honest would be a start. Their brinkmanship may just backfire as the markets decide to take them down anyway even if they agree!
We have previously referred to this in “Financial Meltdown and Black Swans – Myth or Reality?” .
Should the Dollar collapse, which is an increasing possibility even when they introduce QE3, Americans and the rest of us should prepare for hard times not yet witnessed by most of the generations alive.

To give you an insight we suggest  reading “The chaos of a currency collapse” and multiply the effects by millions!

The stage is set for the Chinese Yuan to take the place as the World’s Reserve currency and the American politicians are doing their best to make sure it happens!!

The strengthening demand for physical gold investment is no accident as more and more regular folk know they need to protect themselves before the chaos and crisis ahead.
Don’t miss the opportunity, buy some gold now as insurance against losing everything when the Wall St bell falls silent!

Last month Belarus witnessed the effects of a collapsed currency when the Government cut the rouble’s value against the US dollar by almost half. Previously 3155 roubles would buy a dollar but in the blink of an eye they decided 4930 would be needed. This was not even the reality because perception of the collapsing currency meant the situation was even worse as people scrambled for foreign exchange on the black market where you needed at least 6000 roubles to buy a dollar.

So what sparked this crisis?

President Lukashenko had promised to raise public sector wages by a third during his election campaign, which he duly carried out. This was sustainable only because of the support Belarus received from Moscow in terms of loans. However, as fears grew about the country’s finances, support from Russia waned and even near neighbours from the EU didn’t fancy the risk thus sparking a sharp drop in confidence in the currency.
To exacerbate the problem there was a shortage of foreign exchange currencies, dollars or euros, in the country.

The consequences of a collapse

Shelves quickly emptied of food and any "tangible asset" that would hold value better than their currency

Wide spread panic broke out as the economy effectively became paralyzed and people suddenly realised their currency was of diminishing worth. Shops were quickly emptied of everything that could be bought. Everyday food was snapped up at “luxury” style prices as people thought of survival but also they also bought electric goods like toasters, microwaves, canned goods and virtually anything that was for sale as they rushed to convert their currency into “any tangible assets” that were not losing value as quickly as their roubles.
The empty shelves throughout the towns seemed eerily reminiscent of the Soviet controlled days.
Shoppers knew that anything they could purchase could be more useful as a form of barter than the diminishing currency in their purses and wallets.

The human cost was quickly evident from the stories of employees sent on unpaid leave as companies also struggled to cope and comprehend the impact. Andrei, a computer company employee explained how he queued for a week in Minsk trying to buy dollars but didn’t even get one. “In just one month, I have been made bankrupt, the entire country is bankrupt” he said, adding that “even during the Soviet collapse we never suffered such a nightmare”.

There are many more stories of hardship, families without food or the means to buy any, shops without stock for them to buy even if they had the means.

Dmitry who is a 48 year old factory worker explained how he closed his bank account to get out 5 Million roubles in cash so he “could buy something before my money turns to dust”.

Tensions are growing as many people blame the President for mismanaging the economy.
Staple food supplies are now hoarded but people feel anxious that unrest is starting that could spill over into conflict at any time.
Revolution is always more likely when the population are starving.

Which country is next?

This may all seem so far away from wherever you are reading this but the causes of currency collapse may be closer to your doorstep than you think.

How many countries are in deep debt and reliant on support loans and bailouts right now?
Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Japan, USA, Belarus and virtually all of Eastern Europe and the Euro zone (only they never put it in the headlines!)

What happens when the support cannot be maintained?
Currency Collapse.

It could be the US Dollar, the Euro, the Yen who knows?
But even if it isn’t your currency that collapses what will be the knock on effects in every developed country if one of these currencies collapses?
The same as in Belarus.

Globalisation has been the buzz word for expanding Capitalism but it also means that economies are now inextricably linked and inter-twined to such an extent that when one sneezes they all catch a cold!

Remember the level of Sovereign Debt is spiralling out of control in the US, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and others are close behind such as Spain and the UK. Austerity measures in all countries are hurting normal folk badly – they are losing their jobs, suffering pay freezes, inflation and pension erosion. Social unrest and industrial action looms large across Europe and this will itself impact the recovery and debt repayment. This has already started in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and large scale protests in the UK are gathering momentum with the Autumn likely to be the boiling point of anger.

The discontent and despair of regular folk is understandable as they are bearing the brunt of all the hardship and it just isn’t fair.
Politicians spout their practiced rhetoric about how to fix things but the reality is they just don’t care that much as they are not the ones affected. They have means to isolate them from the hardships and many of them are actually responsible for producing the mess. How can they care about regular people or preach what we need to give up when they don’t – ever met a poor politician? Enough said!

There is now even talk of a “sub-prime” type problem in China because of over-indulgence in property speculation, leaving huge swathes of developments empty or under-occupied and therefore leaking money and ready to default.

We need more than lip service!

Mainstream news outlets are all controlled by self-interest groups (private and Governments) and they never provide the whole story about global economic frailty as there would be worldwide panic if they told the truth. The situation right now is on a knife edge and the next Belarus is not far away. Politicians won’t admit it but then again they won’t suffer like the rest of us as they’re all rich enough and well connected to see out any storm. They care too much for their own popularity to be honest.
Posh boys and rich kids rule the world and their assets are well protected in advance.

Remember what happened when panic struck in Belarus, people bought any tangible asset they could because it would maintain value better than their currency.
This phenomenon is happening daily – your bank account is the best place to keep currency if you want it to devalue!

Currency is not a means of preserving wealth because it has no inherent value especially when confidence is lost – then it is just a piece of paper.

The only real money available is a tangible asset that maintains its value whatever happens to printed bits of paper currency – and that is gold!

A lesson on Money and currency

We need to understand the difference between money and currency as one is real and the other a promise. Money can be defined as a medium of exchange and a store of value and until fairly recent times was in fact coins made out of precious metal with an intrinsic value or for ease of use, notes backed by precious metal.
Money, when considered as the fruit of many years’ industry, as the reward of labor, sweat and toil, as the widow’s dowry and children’s portion, and as the means of procuring the necessaries and alleviating the afflictions of life, and making old age a scene of rest, has something in it sacred that is not to be sported with, or trusted to the airy bubble of paper currency. Thomas Paine (1737 – 1809)
Currency is still a medium of exchange but is not a store of value as it only derives its value by government degree or “fiat”. It’s value is based on the issuing the authority’s guarantee to pay the stated (face) amount on demand, and not on any intrinsic worth or extrinsic backing. All national currencies in circulation, issued and managed by the respective central banks, are fiat currencies.

A days wages in Germany 1923

The problem is that fiat currency runs the risk of central bankers printing too much and causing large inflation or worse. The more that is printed the more the currency is debased just as the Fed is doing now with the dollar. This has been going on for decades with central banks indiscriminately creating money to cover expenditure and ever increasing debt. There are examples throughout history and in the 20th Century most of us are aware that in Germany in 1923 it would take a barrow load of Deutschmarks to buy a loaf of bread but an ounce of gold could buy a reasonable house and one dollar was worth 4 trillion marks.

This irresponsible printing of money has eaten away at the value of the world’s reserve currency the USD dollar and dollar based assets, to such an extent that they have lost 82% of value since 1971, the year the US cut links with the gold standard. The GBP has fared even worse that the USD losing around 85% of value since 1971. There are many illustrations of then and now and how owning gold with intrinsic value would have more purchasing pro rata than currency. E.g the latest model Cadillac Eldorado would have taken 180 ounces of gold at $42.02 to pay the showroom price of $7,546. This same 180 ounces is now worth over $200k and would buy two Cadillac convertibles with enough left over to fuel to first service. In the UK an average family car cost £1000 around 60 oz of gold and now the same would cost £17000 around 23 oz of gold. The 60 ounces would have bought the same family car for you a sports car for your wife and a hatchback for your son or daughter. Gold retains its purchasing power year after year.

Not long ago the gold standard imposed monetary discipline on countries as they had to hold enough gold to cover the money in circulation but this all changed with the Jamaica agreement in 1971 when the decision was taken by President Nixon on the 15th August 1971 to suspend the direct convertibility of dollars into gold, the keystone of the financial system created in July 1944 (the Bretton Woods Agreement). On the 1st October 1971 the general assembly of the IMF asked the board of trustees to study and propose a comprehensive reform. This would be adopted by member States during a meeting held in Kingston (Jamaica) on the 7th and 8th January 1976, and included a set of provisions which put an end to the reign of gold. The US money supply in 1971 was $776 billion and quickly became an upward curve which rose dramatically over the last decade where the US money supply doubled from below $7 trillion to $14.3 trillion indicating that spending is out of control.

The US National debt is now greater than this!

The US though still likes to play the rich kid on the block and bizarrely gives aid to those supporting its debt as a report in the Daily Mail of London illustrates:
The U.S. is providing hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign aid to some of the world’s richest countries – while at the same time borrowing billions back, according to report seen by Congress.

The Congressional Research Service released the report last month which shows that in 2010 the U.S. handed out a total of $1.4bn to 16 foreign countries that held at least $10bn in Treasury securities.

Four countries in the world’s top 10 richest received foreign aid last year with China receiving $27.2m, India $126.6m, Brazil $25m, and Russia $71.5m. Mexico also received $316.7m and Egypt $255.7m.

And yet despite the massive outgoings in foreign aid, the receiving countries hold trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds.

China is the largest holder with $1.1trillion as of March, according to the Treasury Department.

Brazil held $193.5bn, Russia $127.8bn, India $39.8bn, Mexico $28.1bn and Egypt had $15.3bn.
Maybe it’s just additional interest on the debt to keep them sweet!

Greece figures predominantly in the spotlight and unrest is growing – will the Government have to mortgage the Acropolis and Parthenon or even sell them off to pay their debts?
Clearly they can never work their way out of this debt because they would have to increase GDP by 12% a year for 30 years in order to grow their way out of debt.
The Sovereign Debt crisis is well and truly out of control and the only solution will be to default on the debts and devalue currencies.

As discussed in the example of Belarus, chaos ensues when currencies collapse and regular folk suffer badly as they don’t see it coming or refuse to believe it could happen to them.

Be warned: A currency collapse is coming near you.
Be prepared: don’t put faith in bits of paper which have no inherent value.
Protect yourself: Invest in tangible assets that hold real value at all times, especially during a crisis.
Remember: Real money has inherent value, it is worth something because of what it is not because of what is written on it.
Now you know why people buy gold to protect themselves from crisis – it always holds value and is the only real money.

In summary:
• Currency is not money and its value can be changed by monetary policy makers
• Currency can be created and printed at will with no substance to support it
• Currency depreciation in value is accelerating with subsequent loss of purchasing power
• National debt is increasing to disastrous levels with threat of sovereign debt default
• Confidence in the USD is waning and its use as a reserve currency is under threat
• Countries and investors are shedding their dollar assets
• Central Banks are diversifying into gold and out of dollar assets
• Smart investors are diversifying their portfolios with a proportion of gold
• The value of gold has been consistent in retaining its purchasing power
• Gold is insurance for your wealth
• Gold is the only real money

I rest my case!

Recently, a wave of panic swept the precious metals markets and there was talk about the end of the cycles of mega-rise in raw materials! And whereas some thought there was a bubble on gold, it was on silver that the bubble inflated, then burst: The Wall Street Journal talked about the sudden   fall in the grey metal which “ fell 12% in just 11 minutes when the fall was at its most severe. Spot silver saw its informal open at $47.863/oz before rising to a peak of $48.150/oz; it then sold off sharply to a base of $42.210 before stabilizing.

The move down is the first break in an extraordinary run for silver, which has more than doubled in price over the past six months as investors bet on rising prices from renewed industrial demand and as a cheap safe-haven alternative to gold.”.

A piece in the  Financial Times asked  “Did the Silver bubble just burst?”,  illustrating with a chart that “the grey precious metal has tumbled 20 per cent in a week”.

The feeling was that a rapid rebound would be unlikely as expressed by Phillip Klapwijk, executive chairman of the precious metals consultancy GFMS, who said of silver’s position, “I think it could be over on the upside for the next little while.”

The FT also explained the extent of the early May slump saying “Silver prices plunged for the fifth consecutive day on Friday(6th May) as the grey precious metal suffered its biggest correction since the billionaire Hunt brothers cornered the market in 1980.” As the week drew to an end they summarised “The reversal of fortunes for silver – which until this week’s 25 per cent drop had been up 56 per cent since January – has led a wider sell-off in commodities markets, which were heading towards one of their worst one-day falls on record.”

Market manipulation rumours were rife and silver faced additional challenges because of rule changes by the CME Group. “The volatility in silver has been exacerbated by a series of increases in margin – or the amount of cash that investors must set aside to trade each contract – by CME Group, which runs the silver futures exchange in New York.

CME has raised its margin requirements five times in the past 15 days. Investors must now set aside $14,000 per silver futures contract, worth about $180,000 at current prices. The rate will rise to $16,000 on Monday (9^th).”

The grey metal, with a predominantly industrial use, is traditionally much more volatile than gold.

So where does gold feature in all this?

According to the FT “gold has managed to remain relatively unscathed compared with its poorer cousin”

It remains on top, as always!

Silver has never been able to compete with gold

For a long time, these two precious metals have been linked by a ratio of 10 to 15.5. In the time of the Pharaohs, it was said that there was a ratio of 13.3 between gold and silver. In 440 BC, this ratio was of 13 during the Roman Empire it was set as 12.

In 1876, Henri Cernushi wrote in “The Bimetallic Currency” that “gold and silver are two natural and eternal currencies. Nobody can produce them artificially nor by decree and this is why they remain a trustworthy guarantee”. During this era most fiduciary systems fixed the parity between gold and silver at 15.5.
In 1840 Europe, the situation was tense because almost everyone felt that there was a tendency to believe that the ratio of 15.5 tended to overvalue silver.  Indeed the grey metal was abundant due specifically to heavy production in the United States.

These historical references are interesting because they are not too distant from geologist’s estimates that Silver is 17 times more abundant than Gold in the earth’s crust. This has given rise to some investors believing this ratio is the natural balance between the two metals and that one day we should somehow return to it.

Many traders, speculators, and investors focus on the gold/silver price ratio in determining which metal is under or overvalued. In recent weeks and months the ratio has collapsed from above 65:1. The ratio of gold to silver prices is at its lowest since 1980, and has plunged from 46 in January this year to 33

Throughout the twentieth century, the gold/silver price ratio went to nearly 100:1, occasionally dipped below 30:1, and only briefly hit a ratio of 17:1 in 1980.

Put against gold, silver does look distinctly volatile and vulnerable.

Simone Wapler (Editor of MoneyWeek France) writing in La Chronique Agora explains why this ratio dropped:

“The gold/silver ratio collapsed because gold, like silver, has been demonetarized. Silver even more than gold. The central banks still have some gold in their coffers, but not silver. Gold is always popular in the jewellery market, but aside from  monetary uses, the uses of silver are in decline (traditional  photography, silverware). For many silver is just a poor man’s gold. When one cannot afford gold, one buys silver.

However this argument although valid is not strictly true because of innovations that make gold investments even more accessible and in a way that is not restricted by individual budgets.

Investors no longer need to settle for second best when they can have the real thing.

It is now possible to start investing in gold by the gram including a savings account that encourages investment in physical gold (that you own outright) with a plan to start from as little as 1g of gold per month.”

Similarly this form of investment is finding increasing favour from businesses looking to protect their contingency funds against inflation and the risk of traditional portfolio investments that are vulnerable to sovereign and national debt issues. Holding physical gold as an owned asset has an increasing appeal   as an investment with security and profits.

But when the figures speak for themselves…

Simone Wapler also adds that “when gold goes up, so does silver, but to a lesser degree. When gold drops, so does silver, but to a greater degree”.   Furthermore, gold gains twice as much as silver during a rise yet silver loses twice as much as gold during a fall. Before the bubble on silver this rule was proved, clearly meaning that something was going on. The sharp current correction reminds us that there was an unfounded rush on silver- and today the rate should be around 25 euros. Above that it is overheating.

If you are not convinced, here is a brief outline of the evolution in the rates for silver and gold, in recent days and over the last 5 years.

In short, when gold sneezes, silver catches a cold, and when silver starts to take take-off, gold reaches towards its peak!

Gold remains a safe haven

According to the French daily Le Monde, one reads that in spite of the fall in rates, “gold should remain protected by its status as a safe haven when faced with inflationary threats, and a prolonged decline in oil prices does not appear very likely. Worldwide demand remains solid and supply remains under the shadow of tensions in the Arab world, with light crude from Libya still cruelly lacking.”

In MoneyWeek France we are told that “Falls are necessary and compulsory in a large bull market we are more than ever convinced that gold has a promising future ahead. Let’s give time for the new world order to be created, for the former rich countries to become aware that they are the new poor and that they live well above their means… in short, there is still quite a while to go”.

Arguments in favour of gold

Indeed, gold has recorded a slight fall recently, but if you need additional arguments to be convinced of its role as a tangible asset;

• gold is “reconverting into money”: it is clearly not the case for silver
• silver has lost its status as a safe haven contrary to gold
• silver is a rare industrial metal, very volatile just like other raw materials.   Let us take for example palladium: the market for palladium remains confidential and prices extremely volatile. The production of palladium is concentrated within Russia and in South Africa. This concentration of production confers a certain instability in the market with regards to price and reliability of supply. And uncertainties with regards to its provision have even caused the price of palladium to rise in October 2010, reaching its highest level since June at 605.13 dollars an ounce. Demand is increasing consistently, mining development is limited, a hold by the Russian State on reserves and lack of investors: such are the characteristics that have led to the palladium market finding itself in deficit.
• silver is not a product for protection against crisis. It is rather comparable to platinum which had fallen in 2008 because the automotive industry was at its lowest point (noteably platinum is used in catalytic converters)
• silver is increasingly rare and difficult to revalue. Silver is a non-renewable resource and experts agree that by 2021 -2023 the exhaustion of silver supplies will be final.  In any event, silver is a metal which cannot be synthesized and for which no substitute exists. And even if the exact date of a drain in the metal market still remains on hold, in 2010, with a production of 19,300 tons, and demand standing at 25,200 tons, reserves are clearly running low. Remember that principle industrial uses consume the silver
• silver takes up space in storage, and savers prefer gold which in value and in volume is better
• because of its scarcity, industrialists are trying to replace silver as soon as possible. This  linked article deals  with the uses of silver in particular in the manufacture of RFID Tags for stock control and identity cards. If we imagine that one day industrialists find another metal or synthetic to replace this need what leeway will remain for silver? This article is based on a completely biased study of silver. All industrialists say if one day they are able to do without silver, they will do so because it is expensive. The use of gold in industry itself remains limited compared to its use for investment purposes and jewellery.

This is exactly what one is looking for from gold, once again it becomes  a private currency, regardless of form.

Let us leave silver to those who want to get their fingers burnt with molten metal…

“A black swan is the illustration of a cognitive bias (error in decision-making or of behaviour adopted when faced with a given situation).

If one encounters or observes only white swans, one will quickly deduce in error that all swans are white and that is what Europeans believed, for a long time, before making the discovery of the existence of black swans in Australia, in the 17^th century.

In point of fact, only the observation of all existing swans may give us the confirmation or invalidation that these are indeed still white but taking the time and means to observe all swans on Earth before confirming that they are all white is just not possible.

It is thus preferable to make the hasty assumption that they are white, in the expectation of seeing the theory dropped by the observation of a swan of another colour.

Thus we create arguments by starting off with incomplete information, which leads us ending-up with false certainties.”

What is the relevance of this story to the economy and your investments?

Quite simple really. Read on and observe the trend emerging.

- The University of Texas uses gold for its cash-flow….
Important information that has gone unnoticed is that the University of Texas has just invested approximately 1 billion of its cash-flow in gold. You will find below the article by Bloomberg.

The Board members see gold “just as another money but one which cannot be devalued by an additional printing of notes”.

Interestingly, they asked to take delivery of their gold – 6,643 gold bars,  which is stored in a New York vault because of the fear of a Comex paper gold scam.

It should be noted that this university also trains economists.
So what should one think of such a strategy?  Only that more and more private individuals and institutions are starting to have increasing doubts on the continuity of the global economic system in its current make-up. It also suggests that those in the know prefer hard physical assets to “paper promises”.
Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

.

But that is not all. These last weeks have been exceptional in terms of alarm signals.

- Two year rates for Greece exceed 25% for the first time ever. It means that Greece is perhaps only a few days away from a re-scheduling of its debt over which inevitably world banks, starting with French banks, will ruffle a few feathers. For information purposes, it is the Crédit Agricole which is the most exposed to the Greek risk, with all banks being nevertheless concerned.
Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- The monitoring of the US debt by the credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s,

For those who have not yet understood or who really do not wish to understand, the US economy remains the leading global economy. A US default in payment would lead the world into an economic chaos without precedent. Inveterate optimists tell us that they do not believe in it. The very same people who did not believe in a seism of a magnitude higher than 9, followed by a tsunami of more than 15 metres in height, coming to destroy 6 reactors of a nuclear plant… and which exposed a whole country to radiation if not making people tremble with fear over the prospect of the entire contamination of the Northern hemisphere.

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- So what else have we learnt? –  that the Morgan Stanley Bank has just made a voluntary default in payment of $3.3 billion on a 32 storey tower building which it owns in Tokyo. This repayment failure is significant because it was the largest of its kind in Japan and marked the latest fallout from a series of highly leveraged investments by Morgan Stanley, one of the most aggressive investors in worldwide property markets before the global financial crisis In short their loss seems of little importance to them because the value had plummeted and they just had to get rid of this building. What can be the motive of such a decision which is a historical first for this “venerable” institution?

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- To this we can add that CDSs (Credit Default Swaps) currently reflect an anticipation of cancellation of debt of some European countries able to reach 75% (CDSs act as “insurance” against the risk of bankruptcy).

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- And then there is China which wishes to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves and significantly reduce its holding in American dollars. Indeed, the depreciation of a currency is a means of refunding one’s debts only in devaluated monopoly currency. But it is done at the cost of the currency holder. Our Chinese friends no longer seem to want to be the guinea pigs and are looking to diversify into the Euro.

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- More dramatically, Mc Donald’s (the restaurant chain) launched a big campaign to recruit  50,000 jobs in a single day. Pathetic scenes showed to what extent the situation of many American families is disastrous. Almost 3 million people turned up to get work, some even camping the day before just to be sure of being interviewed. The situation simply turned to drama in Cleveland (click here to see video ) when a crazed driver ran over 4 people in the car park!.

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

- And finally, on a lighter note, after the initiative by ex-footballer Eric Cantona even Mayors are having a go, at least the Mayor of the city of Ghent in Belgium for one, who has just taken  the decision to withdraw his funds from two banks, namely Dexia and KBC, in order to protest against the policies of these two institutions and has invited all cities to follow his example…

Yet “experts” previously thought that this was unimaginable and impossible!

It is now obvious that more than ever before how vital it is to adopt a particularly defensive investment strategy.

I invite all private investors to take their potential profits out of the share market and to quit the financial markets. Particular caution is advised with regards to all the securities of insurance companies and banks.
A share in gold of approximately 10% of the total financial assets is to be seriously considered in order to protect one’s financial assets.
It is also strongly advised to get out of bond investments, except from a speculative point of view, starting first with Euro funds in life insurance contracts. These Euro funds are overwhelmingly made-up (approximately 75%) of sovereign debt, i.e. government bonds. Imagine how vulnerable they are to default and complete collapse.

… and remember this is NOT impossible, unimaginable or unthinkable – it is highly likely to the point of being inevitable.

I do not know if you have noticed, but I find that lately we can see more and more black swans.

Yet, as everyone knows, swans are white…. until proved otherwise.

Translated and Adapted from an original article by Charles Sannat

Here’s a Goldcoin.org look at some beautiful Spanish Gold coins with terrific potential for investment.

Alfonso XII 25 pesetas coins

Without doubt the Alfonso XII 25 pesetas coins are on the list of the most important coins in the history of Spain.
His life started with the coup d’etat on 3 December 1874 by General Pavía which brought about the end of the Republic and the establishment of the “Regency Ministry” by Antonio Cánovas, whose commitment was to re-establish the Bourbon monarchy.
All this effort culminated in the arrival in Spain of the son of Isabel II, who had ascended to the throne three years earlier while in exile.

25 Pesata coins

With the Bourbons again at the helm, a new period started to strengthen the pesetas after 10 years of being minted only in copper and silver. This in turn saw the rebirth of the process of manufacturing in gold thereby demonstrating the maturity and growth of the new monetary system which over this period exceeded some 30 million coins.
Design of the new gold coins to be put into circulation occurred three months after the arrival of Alfonso XII by means of a Royal Decree.

Seal of Guarantee for this Currency

There were very few people involved in the design of this coin which propelled the kingdom’s economy for more than a decade. In concrete terms, there were seven experts over this period who were tasked with guaranteeing the quality of the product. Their duties required the printing of their initials on each coin, thereby certifying the process, the exact weight and its authenticity.
The nominated engraver was Gregoria Sellán Gonzalez who saw his work live on in the design of the coins of Alfonso XII and in the first two struck by his son Alfonso XIII.

The seals on these coins are the following:
Engraver: G.S. Gregoria Sellán Gonzalez

Assayers and Weigh Masters:
DE M: Eduardo Diaz Pimienta, Julio Escosura Tablares and Ángel Mendoza Ordoñez
EM M: Julio Escosura Tablares, Mauricio Morejón Bueno and Ángel Mendoza Ordoñez
MS M: Mauricio Morejón Bueno, Pablo Salas Gabarrell and Ángel Mendoza Ordoñez
MP M: Mauricio Morejón Bueno, Félix Miguel Peiró Rodgrigo and Ángel Mendoza Ordoñez

Description and wording on the Alfonso XII 25 pesetas coins

Coins from 1876

ALFONSO XII (1874-1885)
Year: 1876
Gold: Ley 900 milesimas
Diameter: 24,09 mm
Weight: 8.08 gr.
Striated edge
Description
Obverse: ALFONSO XII – POR LA G. DE DIOS 1876/76 (between stars with six points). Head facing right. G.S. (Gregoria Sellán) shown at the bottom of the neck. Pointed fringe.
Reverse: REY CONSTL-DE ESPAÑA D.E. 25 PESETAS. Crowned, draped arms in the collar of the golden fleece and covered under the Royal cloak with the arms of Castilla, León, Aragón, Navarra and Granada; in the centre the Bourbon coat of arms. Pointed fringe. (Information extracted from Book: Gold Coins from the Collection of the Bank of Spain).

Coins from 1881

ALFONSO XII (1874-1885)
Year: 1881
Gold: Ley 900 milesimas
Diameter: 24.11 mm
Weight: 8.07 gr
Striated edge
Description
Obverse: ALFONSO XII – POR LA G. DE DIOS 1881/81 (between stars with six points. Head facing right. G.S. (Gregoria Sellán) shown at the bottom of the neck. Pointed fringe.
Reverse: REY CONSTL-DE ESPAÑA D.E. 25 PESETAS. Crowned, drapped arms in the collar of the golden fleece and covered under the Royal cloak with the arms of Castilla, León, Aragón, Navarra and Granada; in the centre the Bourbon coat of arms. Pointed fringe. (Information extracted from Book: Gold Coins from the Collection of the Bank of Spain).

The manufacturing of these coins started in 1876, with the King’s image being reversed in order to distinguish them from the copper and silver coins. In 1962 a special commission was made by an American company based in Switzerland who made a prepayment both for the stipulated costs and the profits. Original stamps were used with the print date of 1961 and 1962 appearing between the stars.
On the edge of the coins there is an engraving of 27 lily flowers comprised of three groups of nine each.
For the manufacturing proofs and quality check on the engravings, copper coins were used which were subsequently destroyed to avoid them being put into circulation after being gold plated.

In 1881, it was decreed that the king’s image be updated and the result of this shows a great difference compared to the initial one from 1876. Such differences were not so noticeable in the mints from 1876, 1877, 1878, 1879 and 1880 where only slight changes can be seen to the head and features of Alfonso XII.

After his death, all the coins (with the exception of the 2 pesetas) continued to be minted upon the order of his wife, Maria Cristina of Habsburg, until 1886 when his son Alfonse XIII was born and a year later Sellán made the first design with the image of the successor and thereby resumed the task of manufacturing the coins, a period which saw the issuing of the 20 and 100 pesetas coins.

Why do we consider that this is a good coin to buy?

The 25 pesetas coin is one of the most popular in the catalogue of gold coins which are currently in circulation in Spain, and which are also in demand from individuals from other countries who are interested in its historical and financial value. Given that it is one of the most known, its premium can increase considerably in times of crisis, thus acquiring values which are attractive and well-positioned in the world of offer and supply, which happened with the Napoleon in France, for example, and which can reach a premium of 100% during times of crisis.

We should recall that the premium is the difference between the price of the precious metal from which the coin is made and its market price, and that its value depends on many factors which we have explained in our article: “The Premium on Gold Coins”.
It is a type of coin destined to be saved in the future given its good condition and quality.

Translated from an original article by Lizette Paternina

Here’s a Goldcoin.org summary of events moving and shaking the markets supplied by our regular Gold Guru Bill.

In Wednesday nights website update initial resistance was listed at 1457-1465 and the high so far today is 1462.50  — support was listed at 1441-1447 and the low so far is 1450.50

London Gold Fix $1458.25 -$3.25

In yesterday’s update gold prices dropped right at the 9AM est timeframe and supported on the 1444 price support area.  Since that time, the gold market has rebounded into early Wednesday morning US trade but has yet to overcome the resistance area’s that it will need to in order to forge higher.

So far this morning, gold is tracking with equities, as the fear of slowing was at least part of the reason behind the aggressive selling in markets on Tuesday. The markets opened

The trade bounced higher on improved US retail sales release this morning, as investment demand for gold is likely to remain somewhat dependant on the prospect of inflation, which in turn can be dependant on the pace of the economy.  Business Inventories were up .5%
The key will be whether the stock market and gold will be able to hold those early gains as the day wears on.

The pressure for USA to work the budget deficit has President Obama addressing the nation this afternoon after the metals market close. Tax hikes and healthcare cuts are the speculation going into the speech –and as news trickles out  there is speculation of 100-150 billion dollar cuts in military spending proposed and entitlement spending.  Expectations are to suggest curbing domestic spending …. all the usual “talk” that one would expect.  This expectation might act to quell the upside on gold today going into the speech.

While the gold market saw evidence of rising gold production at Fresnillo in the first quarter, that news was offset by expectations of lower annual 2011 gold production from Kingsgate.

The gold market might also be garnering some lift from a survey released overnight that suggested many think central banks will be net buyers of gold in the near future. With the US Beige book, US retail sales up .04% , a Treasury auction and a Presidential speech/testimony today the gold market looks to have an active trade today.

The Dollar is near unchanged levels against most of the major currencies during overnight trading and is just sitting at the on the index.

The Spanish Prime Minister stated that China has reaffirmed their support for purchasing Spanish sovereign debt. Euro zone Industrial Production during February was up 0.4%, lower than projections. UK Unemployment during February was 7.8%, lower than forecasts. French CPI during March was up 2.2% year-on-year, higher than expectations. The second leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 10-Year Note auction, will have data announced at 1:00 PM EST

Going to the charts:

Yesterday low at 1444 was a retest of the breakout price we had been watching last week.  We can see on the chart that today’s price has moved back above that red trend line and price is hanging around that line as it tries to make it support.   So we could see a lot of price activity mostly in the 1453-1463 area today.

Support is the 1444-1450 area and resistance is the 1463-1468 zone.

In summary — markets may pullback from their early morning start and drift sideways as we approach the presidents speech on deficit reduction. As long as price is above the red trend line — its trying to forge support from yesterday’s pullback.   The lower PURPLE line is key to this price breakout and price needs to retain closes above the 1425-1430 area to keep the price  breakout move alive.

by Bill Downey

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The interaction of the world’s markets plays an important role in the fluctuations and evolution of the Gold Price. Politics, economic policies and strategies, world events and currency changes can all have an effect on the demand for Gold as investors, private and institutional look to protect their wealth resources. At Goldcoin.org we champion the safe haven that gold and gold coin investment can offer in these troubled ecomonic circumstances where we have rising inflation, instability across the world and are on the verge of a new period of severe financial crisis.
Here’s a snapshot update from our regular expert analyst Bill Downey who explains where the gold price is, where it might be going and some of the factors that are affecting it.

In Tuesday nights website update — initial resistance in gold was listed at 1464-1468 and the high so far is 1467. Second tier resistance for today was listed at 1474-1478 — and that would be the area to watch if we can continue to move higher today.

Initial support was listed at 1444-1455 and the low so far today is 1453.60

London Gold Fix $1461.25 -$8.25

While the June gold contract saw an initial downtrend overnight, gold prices have recovered above the prior session’s closing value in the early Tuesday US trade action. Gold appears to be partially undermined by declining oil prices and a dampening of overall inflationary fears.

News that a major commodity trading brokerage firm was recommending profit taking in commodities, may also be undermining the gold market slightly. However, another key brokerage firm suggested that gold would outperform most commodities directly ahead and that might help gold prices stand up to the partial liquidation wave in some commodity prices.
Indian gold prices were slightly weaker overnight and news of another quake in Japan applied some minor pressure to gold and other commodity prices overnight. While the trade balance report from the US can drive gold prices, expectations for a slight narrowing of the US trade deficit might be seen as a negative to gold prices, especially if that report lifts the greenback and adds pressure to the bond market. If that would be the case — we think it would be temporary. The US dollar is under pressure again today and the Euro has now traded at the 145 level — a very IMPORTANT price point.

While the gold market generally saw dovish comments from the Fed yesterday, dialogue from the Fed’s Hoenig today might be add to the downside tilt as they are trying to “TALK” their way into making the markets think that there is not going to be more stimulus. So that is the one thing that could return gold to testing the lower areas from last night.

Equity markets in Asia and Europe were weaker during overnight trading and early indications are for the US stock market to open today’s session with moderate losses as Alcoa reported lower than expected earnings and Japan raised the danger level of its on-going crisis. The Japanese Economics Minister said that last month’s earthquake and tsunami would likely have a larger negative impact on the Japanese economy than earlier projections. A proposal by the African Union to end the Libyan conflict was rejected by rebel forces. The German CPI during March was up 2.1% year-on-year, in line with forecasts. A survey of German economic sentiment during April was 7.1, lower than estimates. The UK CPI during March was 4.0% year-on-year, lower than projections. The UK Trade during February was 6.78 billion Pounds, a smaller deficit than forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the February International Trade Balance, as well as Export and Import Prices at 7:30 AM, and surveys of store sales will also be released during the session. In addition, Fed Regional President Dudley will give a speech during the session. The first leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 3-Year Note auction, will have results announced at 12:00 PM CENTRAL time.

Going to the gold charts:

Last nights low was right at the dotted trend line on 30 min chart we published on the website and as long as the 1444-1455 area holds the trend remains up. The market is NOT AS BULLISH as it looked when we entered the week — and even though gold has come back 13 dollars from the low — we’re not out of the woods just yet on this pullback. The 1468-1470 area is probably the most important price point to watch today. We want to see gold above 1468 on a closing basis to add more potential that the pullback is complete. Until then — we can’t rule out more downside pressure today.

It seems like the 9am-10:30AM EST period today might be where the rubber meets the road — and that time frame is when gold would be the most likely to try and pullback.

In summary — the trend is still up —but not as solid as last week– the 1468-1470 area is resistance. Support is the 1444-1455 area. We still favor the bulls —- but we might remain in the 1450-1470 area today in price.

by Bill Downey

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People often ask if it is the right time to buy gold?

Quite simply it is always the right time to buy gold if you are looking to protect and preserve your wealth.

Sure the price can vary but the real value in owning physical gold is that it is your outright property which cannot be wiped out during a crisis or financial collapse. So think of a stocks and shares investment (or any other “paper” investment) the day after a crash – now think of physical, tangible gold assets that you own the day after a crash. The difference is obvious – one is worthless and may even lead to debt, the other has inherent value that will still be sought and can therefore be traded or sold.

Buying gold nowadays is simple and accessible to everyone.

You do not need to physically possess gold at home to fully participate, indeed quite the contrary – keep it safe, keep it in a vault and keep it accessible to sell whenever you choose.

For further information click here.

In last nights website update resistance was listed at 1437.50-1446 and the high so far is 1439. Support was listed at 1419-1425 and the low so far is 1430.

London Gold Fix $1434.50 +$2.00

There is a lot of cross current news this morning moving gold.

Gold prices were showing some positive action initially overnight despite minor strength in the Dollar versus the Euro and a few others. The gold market got marginal support from suggestions from the US Fed Chairman Monday night who labeled inflationary pressures as transitory, as that seemed to suggest that the Fed chief was a little less confident that inflation would indeed remain in check. In other words, the trade seemed to take the Fed comments overnight as a sign that inflation pressures were being acknowledged but were not fully entrenched yet. However, the Fed Chairman also suggested that recent price gains were probably temporary and that left the gold market somewhat confused. Indeed — he looked nervous during the discussion.

The gold market garnered some support from news of a credit downgrade of Portugal overnight, especially since the ratings suggested that the status of that debt remained under review.

Gold traded in the 1434 to 1439 area up until the London open. However, outside market action have limited gold prices early in the trade today, as some commodity markets like corn corn and soybeans started out on a softer footing–at least initially.

The gold market was also undermined by news of further Chinese tightening action overnight. The Chinese moved 25 basis points on lending and deposit rates and that event probably increased overhead resistance in the US gold market this morning near the 1440 area. Still — the last few rate increases from China had almost no effect — pretty much about what we’ve seen so far today. Over the last four hours — gold has tried to break below the 1430 area. Each hour has

The gold market will also be watching the GOP budget proposal release later this morning, as aggressive deficit reduction efforts could also be seen as a limiting development for gold prices. Paul Ryan has rolled out the plan and the big number is 6.2 TRILLION DEFICT REDUCTION OVER 10 YEARS —– The proposal was just released — so it will take a few days to see how the market absorbs this and how the debate unfolds.

Meanwhile the US BUDGET DEFICIT CEILING runs out FRIDAY — and the politicians are going back and forth in threats to not extend the ceiling on the Republican side.

While equity markets in Asia were mixed during overnight trading, stock indices in Europe are generally lower this morning. The Dollar was slightly higher against most of the major currencies during overnight trading, although posting a substantial loss versus the Pound.

A credit ratings downgrade of the sovereign debt of Portugal by one level this morning. Euro zone Retail Sales during February were down 0.1%, lower than expected. Major US economic numbers released this morning include a survey of US non-Manufacturing industries grew less than expected, but it wasn’t a barn burner.

GOING TO THE GOLD CHART — today we show the daily chart and the short term cycles we follow on the website. Orange circles are when the stronger trends usually peak — and the blue circles are when the weaker trend usually ends. While not all points work — take February for example — there is enough to at least keep an eye on developments. The trend is still up —- watch 1439-1444 as a key area.

On the downside — there has been a test every hour since 7AM EST of the 1430 area but so far it is holding— and that puts SUPPORT for the remainder of the day at 1425-1430. As long as price is above that area — its still up.

In summary —- the trend remains up —-We think that 1439-1444 is the PIVOT PRICE AREA TO WATCH — and closes above 1444 would increase the potential for the upside. PRICE ALWAYS RULES — but these short term trends need to be watched going into Wednesday. AS LONG AS PRICE HOLDS 1425-1430 support today — continue to favor higher.

by Bill Downey

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In last nights update resistance in gold was listed at 1437.50-1446 and the high so far is 1439. Support for today was listed at 1419-1425 and the low so far is 1427.60

London Gold Fix $1432.50 +$1.50 LME

While the Dollar is slightly higher early, the Greenback remains within striking distance of last week’s lows. With the gold market overnight seeing a rather hot ECB inflation reading and seeing crude oil prices claw out another fresh new high for the move and a host of commodity prices trading higher, the gold bulls feel somewhat confident to start the new trading week.

Some players in the market expect some dovish comments from the Fed’s Bernanke today and after dovish dialogue from the Fed’s Dudley at the end of last week, the threat of rising US rates may become an issue but so far — it seems to be just talk. There is a G20 meeting mid-month so that’s something we’ll have to keep in mind.

Some players think that news of a release of RAD into the ocean in Japan is a limiting issue for gold, but one could also suggest that development could ultimately be inflationary if Japan is forced to seek alternative protein in the grain and livestock markets.

The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of March 29th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 213,983 contracts, an increase of 3,448 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 264,085 contracts, an increase of 1,242 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 50,103 contracts, a decrease of 2,205 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 264,086 contracts. This represents an increase of 1,243 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

While equity markets in Asia and Europe were mixed during overnight trading, early indications are for the US stock market to open today’s session with moderate gains.

The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of Japanese manufacturers projects that business conditions in Japan will worsen during the next three months as a consequence of the Sendai earthquake.

A Libyan envoy has traveled to Greece to begin discussing an end to hostilities in that nation. The US State Department is flying their employees out of Syria due to continued unrest.

Euro zone PPI during February was up 6.6% year-on-year, in line with market forecasts.

Going to the charts ……………..

On Friday’s update we discussed the tendency for gold to move higher after the USA unemployment data and after hitting a low of 1412, gold rallied back to the 1430 area for the close.

Coming into today and the 1439 high — it really comes down to whether gold is going to burst through the 1444 area this week. A WEEKLY Friday close above 1436 — and 1444 is needed to add to the upside potential. Although the trend is still up — the stronger trends we watch are due to peak here between today and Wednesday and a weaker trend is scheduled to begin and last into mid-month. Price always rules — and turn points are secondary — so we would want to see price begin to react and show weakness before we consider that the weaker trend has kicked in. But it’s something we need to be aware of should gold begin to trade lower. First Targets for this coming week to watch for is the 1440 to 1453 area. I’m looking to sell 1/2 my long short term gold positions from 1406 and 1418 should we trade up to the 1450 area.

The chart shows two red arrows —- the lower arrow shows the Feb lows how the market pulled back to 1325 on four occaisions in one week but was not able to break lower. The same condition happened last week — where there were four pullbacks to the 1410-1412 area — all of which produced a nice bounce back up. The lows were right on the lower purple channel line on the chart. This kind of action usually favors higher prices.

Thus, from a swing trade standpoint — as long as we remain above the 1408-1410 price area on a closing basis — the trend is still up.

Resistance is the 1439-1447 area today and first support is the 1427-1432 area.

In summary — the gold market trend is still up. A daily close above 1436 and/or 1444 would be helpful and favor higher prices into Tuesday/Wednesday. Going forward —- as we mentioned — the potential for gold to peak this week and begin a sideways to lower trend into mid month is a consideration when we look at short term cycles. However the seasonals do favor higher overall into the month of May so an April pullback — should still garner higher prices into month end and early May should we get a pullback. The trend is still up.

by Bill Downey

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Here at Goldcoin.org we have previously discussed the moves in Utah to introduce its own gold currency, Gold currency is making a comeback! In Utah, they could soon be buying a hamburger with gold! and noted that progress was made by the passing of a bill in Utah Gold Currency a step closer.
However, Utah is not alone.

There are no fewer than 12 other States which are pushing for a return to gold currency by introducing bills before the Legislature in the form of the ”Constitutional Tender Act”.
The 12 States are:
Colorado
Idaho
Indiana
Montana
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vermont
Virginia
Washington

The “Constitutional Tender Act”

The United States Constitution declares, in Article I, Section 10,
“No State shall… make any thing but gold and silver coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”. This means that no State can make something a “tender in payment” (which means they cannot “make something an offer as payment”) for any debts, which would include debts owed by and to the State.
However, EVERY State in the United States of America HAS made some other “Thing” an offer as payment – they have by law declared that they will accept, and pay out, Federal Reserve Notes for any debts owed by or to them.
Therefore, every State is in violation of Article I, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution.
Thus the need for the “Constitutional Tender Act” — a bill template that can be introduced in every State legislature in the nation, returning each of them to adherence to the United States Constitution’s actual legal tender provisions.

Most importantly the bills are aimed at protecting the people from the continued devaluation of the dollar and almost certain hyperinflation which is due in the future.
It is also seen as a way for States to insulate themselves from the policies and practices of the Federal Reserve which seems to be pursuing the inflationary practice of monetizing the national debt to address the consequences of runaway federal spending.

The Privately Owned Central Bank

Did you know that the Federal Reserve is a private institution with link shareholders? Most folk believe it is a federal agency.

Fed shareholders earn 6% interest “by law” and as for reserves, well they have none. The only thing the Fed does is create paper and charge the government interest for doing so. It also has licence to print “paper money” that is not backed by assets. The more it produces the more the value of the dollar is diluted. The $800 Billion it has printed for QE2 are merely bits of paper with ink on them that eventually some average Joe will be charged interest for using or borrowing. In reality the money doesn’t exist just the debt it creates.

Individual states have not issued legal tender for over a hundred years so why now?

Because the weakening of the dollar by the Fed to essentially reduce the size of the national debt has also eroded the savings of citizens, the price of their houses, the worth of their pay cheques and eroded their purchasing power at a time when inflation is rising but wages are stagnant. Enough is enough.
History is on the side of the people here. In the original drafting of the Constitution the Founders disliked “paper” money so much they provided specific wording against it.
The transcript of the debates in the original Constitutional Convention shows the attitude of the Founders toward paper money was one of disgust. In debate one delegate, Roger Sherman, called for the insertion of an absolute prohibition against states issuing their own paper money.

Mr. Wilson and Mr. Sherman moved to insert after the words ‘coin money’ the words ‘nor emit bills of credit, nor make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts’ making these prohibitions absolute…

Mr. Sherman thought this a “favourable” crisis for crushing paper money.

The Founders voted to adopt Sherman’s “crushing” of state-based paper money.

As for the federal government, the original draft of the Constitution included language permitting the federal government to issue unbacked paper money. The Founders objected strongly to this power. The objections were summed up by delegate Oliver Ellsworth:

Mr. Elsesworth thought this a favourable moment to shut and bar the door against paper money. The mischiefs of the various experiments which had been made, were now fresh in the public mind and had excited the disgust of all the respectable part of America. By witholding the power from the new Governt. more friends of influence would be gained to it than by almost any thing else. Paper money can in no case be necessary. Give the Government credit, and other resources will offer. The power may do harm, never good.

Those who wrote the Constitution decisively stripped the federal government of the power to issue inconvertible paper money. And stripped it stayed… until, temporarily, during the Civil War. Saving the Union was of transcendent importance.
For most of American history dollars were convertible into gold or sometimes silver.
It is a 20th century innovation to have unconvertible money

On April 19 1933 Franklin D Roosevelt took the US off the Gold Standard and Americans had to exchange their gold for paper dollars at $20.67 an ounce (so a dollar was approximately equal to 1/20th of an ounce of gold). This was the start of the Great Confiscation which lasted until 1975.
In 1945 The Bretton Woods Agreement created a “Gold exchange standard” whereby the US promised to fix the price of gold to $35 an ounce (the dollar therefore was worth 1/35th of an ounce). The dollar therefore became the world’s reserve currency and was used for international trading and commerce, notably for the quotations of oil. Therefore all other currencies were effectively pegged to the dollar and therefore gold. At this point “paper” money had a reference value and theoretically could be exchanged as originally intended for a specific weight in gold.

However, in 1971 Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold because of the huge US debts following the Vietnam War. This was another nail in the dollars coffin. The gold price was approximately $41 an ounce ( so a dollar was worth 1/41th of an ounce). This also effectively unhinged all the other currencies from a gold standard as they had all been pegged to the dollar. The Demonetization of gold was completed by the Jamaica Agreement. This meant currencies could freely float in value up and down which they did. It marked the first time in history that only Fiat currencies existed (i.e. unbacked currency).
President Nixon announced this as a temporary suspension.

Nixon Lies again and again

President Nixon made certain promises to America when he suspended convertibility of the dollar. August 15, 1971:

“I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold ….

Now, what is this action–which is very technical–what does it mean for you?

Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation.

If you want to buy a foreign car or take a trip abroad, market conditions may cause your dollar to buy slightly less. But if you are among the overwhelming majority of Americans who buy American-made products in America, your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.”
The dollar has actually lost 3848% of its value when measured against Gold since Nixon declared this.
An ounce of gold is today quoted at $1420 (rounded up) which means that a dollar is technically only worth 1/1420th of an ounce compared to 1/41th of an ounce when Nixon made his declaration.
This steady erosion of the worth of a Dollar is exactly why there are calls for a return to gold currency or gold-backed currency in 13 States with others already contemplating the same.
One can understand the concerns and the choice between paper dollars or a piece of gold to preserve your wealth seems self-evident.
Just in case let’s check the value of the Dollar expressed in Gold.

From Confiscation until Bretton Woods 12 years later the Dollar lost 175% of its value against gold (an average of 14.58% per annum).
From Bretton Woods created the standard until Nixon removed it 26 years later the Dollar lost 117% of its value against gold (an average of 4.5% per annum).
In the last 40 years since Nixon unhinged the Gold Standard, the US Dollar has lost 3484% of its value against gold (an average of 87.1% per annum).
In a total of 78 years since confiscation in 1933 the US Dollar has lost over 7142% of its value against Gold (an average of 91.56% per annum).

So the period of greatest stability for the Dollar was with a Gold Standard and Confiscation still in place.
The most unstable period for the Dollar was when neither of these was in place as is the case today.

If the Dollar continues to falls by at least the average for the last forty years, bearing in mind that current world events could add to its woes, then it would be worth 0.00009 ounces of gold or 1/11111th of an ounce within a year – that gives a gold price of $11,111 an ounce.

It is especially pertinent when one considers the strength of an investment over time – Gold is anti-inflation and anti-crisis. It will always maintain real value, worth and purchasing power which can be traded and wilfully accepted in exchange for the necessities of life. This cannot be said for paper money which as history has proved time and again eventually becomes a worthless piece of paper whose only real value is its calorific heat value for burning!
This illustrates exactly why the peoples of Thirteen States are leading the charge to convert to a gold currency that maintains real value rather than be chained to the US Dollar which will only be of value for fire-lighting very soon.
It is inevitable that currency must be established against a fixed reference for it to have any real value and this road will always lead back to Gold as history has proved.
If you’ve never bought Gold before then maybe now is a good time before your savings literally go up in flames.