If you search the web for information on when and how to buy gold and in what format you will get a wealth of advice on both the indicators and how to get the best return on your investment.  You may also see warnings from fake coins, tungsten in gold bars to loss of value on resale as dealers take there cut.  More of this later as there are certainly pitfalls that are easily avoided.

You may be driven to gloom and despair when you come across many hypotheses on the dangers of Fiat currency, whereby central banks are printing money and devaluing currencies be that USD, GBP or the Euro. You will certainly not be comforted by articles on Sovereign Debt £1.4 trillion coming up in the UK, the greater and more dangerous debts of the US, Japan, and the current difficulties with Greece, Italy,  Spain and Portugal in the Euro zone. We have already seen the collapse of Iceland and some former eastern European countries and Ireland on the brink (UK citizens who hold money in our Post Office should be aware that this is directly with the Bank of Ireland who is now 1.9 billion in debt). If you delve further you will see more political manoeuvring in the East and Russia, where there is a drive to move away from the USD as the reserve currency, additionally China has a long term strategy for financial domination. You may be forgiven for feeling that the world as we know it will come to a halt as you listen to many experts predicting an inevitable systemic crisis that would make  2008 pale into insignificance and global contagion would cause capitalism itself to collapse.

I am not saying we should ignore those warnings, far from it but the optimist would have some faith that the western world could stabilise, otherwise we will not be concerned with gold and money but food and weapons, and yes you will find that advice already common amongst the growing number of survivalists in the USA.  There will no doubt be rocky roads to follow, financial difficulties, pressures on currencies, but currency is not money.  There is no doubt that many people will be looking for a safe haven, an insurance policy and the only world wide respected haven is gold.  This gold must not be in the form stocks, un allocated gold at a bank or certificates but physical gold which is tangible either held secured at your residence or in a vault where you own it.  Even the survivalists after the guns and ammo recognise that a stash of gold coins would be necessary as a medium to exchange for supplies.

I would say that the majority of investors are optimistic enough to believe that we will overcome a financial crisis to a greater or lesser extent and not be plunged back into the third world. There is no doubt that we are in an investor “safe haven” and even the most optimistic are and should be hedging by diversifying part of their portfolio into gold.  We in the UK have always believed in our currency otherwise we would be part of the Euro zone, we have not been successfully invaded for almost 1000 years hence we have no country wide safe haven investment history. Twenty two miles across the channel, our nearest neighbour France, following a century of invasion, dramatic devaluation understand the safe haven that gold provides.  Families have survived through crisis because they put their wealth into gold napoleons and today French citizens have 3000 tonnes held privately in gold coins. Should a new crisis occur then many French families will be able to ride out the storm whereas hardly any in the UK would be in a similar position. There is a lesson to be learned here.

I have researched long and hard and think I understand the drivers, the risks the patterns.  The case for owning gold is clear but investors will always be looking for Return On Investment so clearly the timing of buying and selling is essential.  We saw in December 2009 the gold spot touch $1227 per ounce and is now holding around $1100. Where will it go is the big question and what are the drivers and is their anything to be gleaned historically or seasonally.

Let’s take a look at the drivers that keep the price low:

• The West has become complacent and does not have the level fear of financial crisis that it perceived a few months ago. The truth is that we are not out of the crisis the economy is recovering very slowly and is very volatile and we have the £1.4 trillion sovereign debt to face
• The West although no longer fearing a crisis is still tightening is belt and there is not the money around to spend particularly on jewellery. People are taking note of the volatility, companies who have vacancies are fearful of taking on new staff and unemployment is still a huge issue
• The USD has been relatively strong recently and as we al know a strong dollar weakens the gold price. Interestingly the GBP and Euro price has risen from the all time high dollar spot price due to weakening exchange rates.
• India’s private demand dropped in 2009 as people did not buy as much jewelry due to the high price although India’s central bank bought 200 Tonnes off the IMF to back its international commitments
• China is now the largest consumer and the greatest producer of gold but is playing a very political game as it is determined to increase its reserves and shed dollar assets but it does not want to do anything to increase the price of gold or weaken the dollar while it holds $2 trillion of dollar assets
• It is believed if demand continues at the current rate it will not overstretch supply.

What will drive the price up?

• At some point inflation will incur and the dollar will weaken as more money is printed
• It is likely that there will be another financial crisis that will send all the gold bugs scuttling to protect their wealth
• China, Russia and India will take up any slack in demand particularly China who want to increase their gold reserve but also have encouraged their citizens to save gold
• Central banks do not find holding foreign currencies attractive so they can only turn to gold
• There is a finite supply of gold all that has been produce in the world to date would fit in a 20m cube. It is more difficult and costly to mine and the ability to supply is falling off.

The new drive will come from the East as their central banks diversify from dollar assets and the new found prosperity of their consumers will lead to purchase of gold for jewellery and investment. Eastern currencies will appreciate as the dollar losses its status thus driving up the price in dollars over a period of time.

When is gold bought and sold?

• Seasonally – Over the last 30 years the gold price has been at lowest with remarkable consistence in the northern hemisphere summer as European jewellery fabricators and customers are on vacation with the biggest drive in the fourth quarter. This coincides with harvest and wedding festivals in the East. On average throughout this period gold bought in summer turned profitable by the end of the year. Professionals tend to sell at the beginning of the year.
• Historically – Gold has reached a high in cycles followed by quite severe corrections and periods of consolidation. In fact in the last several years gold’s peak highs have followed a super cycle of around 22 months.  Gold reached its famous high in 1980 at $850 which equates to around $2200 when adjusted for inflation so there is a very strong argument that gold still has a long way to go before it reaches its previous high and now we have in addition Russia, China and India as major players. Bearing in mind that cycles constrict and expand please look at the chart below where the next predicted super cycle high will be around 21 months from the high in December 2009 and that will be Q4 2011 and this also coincides with the seasonal trend.

When to buy and when to sell:

All the indicators point a period of consolidation, both seasonally and historically gold should reach a 2010 low in July to August probably $1050 – $1060 and that is probably the time to buy. Do not expect  an immediate significant rise but the trends show that there will be an increase towards the end of the year and probably another period of consolidation in early 2011 so time to hold your nerve.  Late in 2011 the seasonal and the super cycle trends combine and we shall reach the next peak. Conservatively that would be in excess of $1300 but many experts are expecting the next peak to be $1500 or higher. If you are a speculator you may want to take your profit now but if you consider your gold to be your insurance policy then you will hold on to it. If you are in the later category then you will hold your gold until there is a stabilisation and that would not happen until we stop printing currency and take our contractory medicine. See the article on When should we sell gold for more details

What to buy and how?

I mentioned in the opening paragraph that there are pitfalls to avoid and it is not too difficult. Apart from fakes, which can easily be avoided by using reputable sources and not trusting to buying through private individuals through auction site, everything else is designed to take away you profit.

Buy:

• Investment gold(1) to avoid VAT
• Investment gold to include in your SIPP so the UK government will pay you back 20% or 40% depending on your income tax bracket
• Legal tender gold coins(Sovereigns and Britannias) to avoid Capital Gains Tax on profit
• From a reputable source

Avoid:

• Dealers or companies that charge a high premium
• Proof coins that can have a premium of almost twice the gold value
• Any gold coins that demand a high initial premium
• Numismatic coins as they are best left to the experts in that field
• Large bars that are difficult to liquidate
• Removing your gold from the professional system as it immediately depreciates by 10-15%

Sovereign Elizabeth II Obverse

Buying gold bullion is good because the premium is low but we would recommend gold investment coins and in particular semi numismatic coins can attract a premium differential over the gold price particularly in times of crisis. Coins have greater liquidity than bullion bars which can be difficult to split.There is  quite a choice  and that may be appropriate to the country in which you live. The Krugerand is one of the oldest and well known bullion coins and can be purchased with little premium over a bullion bar. In the UK, the British sovereign is in my opinion is the best investment,  ”safe haven” and emergency coin in the world and can be bought at very little premium from the right source with added attraction of owning a beautiful historic coin with aesthetic value.

There is clearly a case for a platform that enables the discerning investor to incorporate the factors that removes the risk and reduces purchase premium and commissions to the minimum. This mechanism did not exist until a unique platform was developed to enable the buying and selling of gold in real time with best prices and secure storage,  in France in 2008 AuCOFFRE.com.  The  UK website is currently under development and will be available very soon.

(1) Investment gold is

(a) gold of a purity not less than 995 thousandths that is in the form of a bar, or a  wafer, of a weight accepted by bullion markets or:

(b) a gold coin minted after 1800 that:

¨ is of a purity of not less than 900 thousandths

¨ is, or has been, legal tender in its country of origin; and

¨ is of a description of a coin that is normally sold at a price that does not exceed 180% of the open market value of the gold contained in the coin; or:

(c)  an investment coin as specified in Notice 701/21A Investment gold coins.

Maurice Hall

Now that gold is in a consolidation phase it is time to take the opportunity to review your assets  and understand the real advantage that they have given you is  ”life insurance ” .  For those that already own gold coins and know the many advantages of them, it’s time to strengthen your holdings.

We have heard people say “Personally I think that the price of gold will continue to drop because of all this news about a recovery.”  Recovery? What recovery?  The recovery of city traders’ morale because they have been offered two or three jobs a day for the past few months?  The recovery of your bank manager’s morale now that he is able to do his job like he did “before“?  No one has spoken to me about a recovery.  The budgets of many companies are still frozen as they wait for better days.  The bank accounts of some are nearly empty and uncertainties about their employees’ jobs have never been so great.  The global debt situation is frightening and the UK national debt is reaching dangerous heights, estimated at £1.1 trillion next year. In summary, nothing has been settled and we are currently navigating through a period of uncertainty, a vast smoke cloud. Most experts agree that gold is in a period of correction that falls into a pattern that has been repeated through out the last decade. There will be consolidation and that could be around $1100 an ounce and that will be followed by a rise of anywhere between $1300- $1500 by the end of the year.

To continue with this metaphor, the house is on fire in the basement but there is still time for those who don’t have any insurance to take some out.  The structure has been affected but there are still embers alive here and there and no one really knows where and how to extinguish them.  You can even consider yourself lucky because you know that the house could soon burn down entirely.

In this context, buying gold is a bit like placing Pascal’s wager: by not having it you have everything to lose.  By having it the worst possibility is that you will keep it and have to catch up on the rest (stocks, property etc.) Or put another way “Gold is not an investment, it doesn’t earn anything.  It’s a security blanket when monetary markers disappear.  Which is the biggest risk: having gold or not having gold? Not having it of course.”  – Simone Wapier Chief editor MoneyWeek

Those who today believe that you shouldn’t buy gold because the stock market is showing signs of recovery are those that systematically buy gold when its price is rising because it is talked about on the TV who sell when the price is dropping because no one is talking about it anymore.  In short, the same people who systematically lose on shares because they apply the same strategy to their stock portfolio. The simple chart shows a typical investment  cycle where the heavy public buying is a result of  greed and and the selling follows fear and despair but the overall trend is upwards for the discerning investor who holds his nerve.  Gold is still at this time the preferred investment of contrarians even if others are discovering its qualities.

Today, the price of gold coins means they are still worth purchasing, particularly because Napoleons have a premium of less than 5% and Krugerrands have a premium of between 5 and 7% as have sovereigns if bought from the right source.

All gold coins are not equal depending on what you want to do and where the coins are located and where you live.  You must choose coins that correspond with your profile and you must know how to diversify. Coins are also global and it pays to understand how coins are bought and sold in other countries and how profit can be made outside of your own country. We have this international experience.

Generally in Britain we should buy sovereigns, Britannias as they are our national coins and free from both VAT and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) but we may also consider the Kruggerand but accept CGT will have to be paid on profit.  However, we should be aware of the vibrant gold coin market in France where we can take advantage of their obsession with Napoleons where the premiums will rise at the slightest hint of any trouble. People who live in France  should buy Napoleons, also we have advised them to buy Tunisian 20 Franc coins (not sought after in France therefore a low premium potential in France) because they have a second home in Tozeur, in the middle of the Tunisian desert (place where the premium for this coin will be higher because of strong demand for gold).  We  have advised other people to buy sovereigns rather than Krugerrands because they travelled between France and China for business.

Generally speaking we advise the following:

• Medium and long term investors buying and selling in the UK should concentrate on the sovereign, Britannia or Krugerrand.  Other coins to consider internationally are the Napoleon, the Swiss 20 Franc Vreneli and the 50 Peso Centenario.  For info: the Sovereign is highly sought after in all the former British colonies but also in Germany, Greece and China. Without doubt it is the coin that has the greatest worldwide liquidity and is the coin of choice for use in an emergency and is issued by many nations armies, to personal likely to be exposed to danger. The Napoleon is essentially recognized in France, Switzerland and Belgium and could be interesting to the UK investor for the reasons above.  The Krugerrand is the international gold bullion coin and wherever you go this coin is sought after it may also be useful in shorter term investments.  The Swiss 20 Franc is the gold coin familiar to all the former investors in physical gold in particular the Germans, Swiss and French.  Finally the 50 Pesos Centenario can easily be traded for cash in all Hispanic countries.
• Those who like to play the markets and like us think that the price of gold will continue to rise and that there might be a rush on gold coins towards the end of the year, can consider the  Krugerrands which could become short in supply.  They could also follow the price of the $ 10 and $20 US  (Eagle and Double Eagle) which have very large differential premiums ( the difference between the base premium and the highest premium) and buy therefore when the premium is low (don’t expect the base premium to be lower than 10% however).  Such coins could gain or lose £40-45 in less than one day.  Finally, for those that want to play the French card, our preferred coin for trying to make a profit with is undoubtedly the 10 Franc Napoleon or the half Napoleon which can make 10 Euros in less than a day (which is enormous for a coin that is listed for around 80 Euros).  In France the half Napoleon is the coin with the highest differential premium.  But be aware, we recommend it for experts only because you have to know when to buy it at the best time (premium between 12 and 20%) and you must above all be certain of its quality (minimum VF condition)
• For Insurance, Investment and world wide liquidity and the added advantage of no Capital Gains Tax in the UK  buy the sovereign

An index of the most popular investment coins can be found at http://goldcoin.org/investment-coins/

In summary:

• You still don’t have any gold coins?
• You already have coins? Don’t sell them, strengthen your holdings.
• For the long term: Buy Sovereigns (antique but not numismatic or Elisabeth II), Napoleons, Swiss 20 Franc or 50 Pesos.
• For the short term: buy Krugerrands, $10 or $20 Eagle or double Eagle with a declining premium, or even very good quality half Napoleons when the premium is between 12 and 20%.  You know that you are taking risks with these purchases but in terms of profits you could very quickly increase your outlay.  This takes time, but you have everything to gain by monitoring the price of these coins and by creating email alerts for when a threshold (price and/or premium) is passed upwards or downwards.

You will find the following articles interesting:

• Investing with gold coins.  The novices guide – (to be posted)
• Analysis of Gold – Price consolidation

The Sovereign and Kruggerand also have internationally appeal but  the Swiss 20 Franc Vreneli, and the 50 Pesos are also interesting due to its very low premium but strictly as a long term investment for the day when everything implodes…

Updated by Maurice Hall for the UK market from an original article by Jean-Francois Faure president and founder of AuCOFFRE.com

The role of the Dollar in the Bretton Woods Agreement

Behind the changes that led to the Jamaica agreement can be found the decision taken by President Nixon on the 15th August 1971 to suspend the direct convertibility of dollars into gold, the keystone of the financial system created in July 1944 (the Bretton Woods Agreement).  On the 1st October 1971 the general assembly of the IMF asked the board of trustees to study and propose a comprehensive reform.  This would be adopted by member States during a meeting held in Kingston (Jamaica) on the 7th and 8th January 1976, and included a set of provisions which put an end to the reign of gold.  The decisions taken focussed on two main points:

1. The new exchange rate system

Member countries had to refrain from manipulating their exchange rate for competitive reasons and had to choose between three possibilities:
- not assigning a parity to their currency which floats freely on foreign exchange markets ;
- fixing the value of their currency by pegging it to another currency or Special Drawing Rights ( SDR )*– not to gold;
- linking the value of their currency to one or various other currencies as part of cooperation mechanisms

2. The role of gold

The solution presented was a compromise between the French argument that pushed for gold to remain part of the organization and running of the international monetary system and the American policy that had for a long time wanted gold to be withdrawn from its supreme position.  The agreement withdrew the status of the IMF and all references to gold and replaced it and its core functions with SDR whose dollar value is posted daily on the IMF website.  The consolation for gold was that central banks were given back the freedom to carry out transactions with metal without restrictions on them or the market.

This desire to remove gold as the standard parity system and to abolish the official price of the metal was completed by:

- abolishing obligatory payments in gold for operations between the IMF and member countries;

- obliging the IMF to get rid of a third of its gold holdings (50 million ounces) by returning half to Member states at the old price ($ 35 an ounce) and by selling the other half through public auctions.

Again we must add that the abolition of the official price of gold resulted in central banks being able to carry out transactions at a price derived from the market and to reassess metal stocks in their possession (as was very quickly the case of France and Italy).

Even if the United States made it known that they would continue to assess their reserve at the old official price of $ 42.22 an ounce and even if the first auction by the IMF lowered the price of gold on the world markets, at least for short periods, we can say that in the fact the results expected by the American policy and the IMF were a long way from being achieved.  The price of gold and gold itself still remain important elements of a vast political game: all things considered, if gold has survived, it’s because it has not stopped being the official metal that governments didn’t want it to be and wanted to forget.

Today - As the dollar struggles and the new gold giants Russia, China and India are all looking in different ways towards gold as the international medium to back commitments or in the long term to oust the dollar as the international reserve currency. Closer to home the crisis that rose to the surface in 2008 has caused us to once again look at the stabilisation that resulted in the Bretton Woods agreement, which collapsed, partially due to economic expansion in excess of the gold standard’s funding abilities on the part of the United States and other member nations. However, the problems of currency systems not pegged to gold lead to economic problems far worse.

Both France and Britain have envisage such a stabilization. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown were recalling the previous success and called for a “new Bretton Woods” agreement in October 2008. What Sarkozy and Brown envisaged was a new multilateral agreement to stabilize international finance in the 21st century, the way the 1944 conference, which established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, stabilized financial relations among countries in the second half of the 20th century. The summit meeting of world leaders held in Washington, D.C., in November 2008 started a process that could lead to such an agreement. What would that take to succeed? What kind of leadership, and what kind of commitment, would be needed? History offers some useful lessons.

On several occasions throughout the 20th century, political leaders in major countries sought international agreements on the global economic or financial architecture. Many of those efforts failed, Bretton Woods being the major exception. The central lesson that emerges from these efforts is that successful reform in response to a crisis requires three ingredients:

1. effective and legitimate leadership combined with inclusive participation;
2. clearly stated and broadly shared goals
3. a realistic road map for reaching those goals.

The goals, achievements also that which is deferred is dependant on the participant countries. New rules in finance can only be devised by the those who are the major players in the financial markets, industrial and emerging markets. The more inclusive the participants in the next Bretton Woods the more likely to conclude with  long lasting benefits

* The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries’ official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. With a general SDR allocation that took effect on August 28 and a special allocation on September 9, 2009, the amount of SDRs increased from SDR 21.4 billion to SDR 204.1 billion (equivalent to about $ 321 billion).

Maurice Hall –  based on extracts from Jules Lepidi’s book gold and article by JM Boughton IMF Historian

In March 1999, gold is almost as low as $250 an ounce.  In December 2009 it cost more than $1200 an ounce.  In ten years, the price of gold has exploded and despite the recovery of the financial markets you will have seen that the price of gold has not dropped.  Why?  Because one central bank has announced that it secretly accumulated gold reserves, multiplying its gold reserves by three – that Bank is the Chinese Central Bank.

Peoples Bank of China HQ

The Chinese Central Bank announced that it now holds the fifth largest stock of gold of any central bank.  Central banks hold gold, they always have.  Since they were first created, gold has been used for stabilisation in times when only the gold standard determined trade values and currency values.

Since most currencies became free to convert, gold has lost its importance and in early 1999 most central banks decided to sell gold because gold wasn’t making them any profits. The Bank of England started to sell its gold stock leading to a drop in the price of gold.  France, Spain and Portugal followed suit.  Almost all countries decided to sell gold except the United States, Italy and Germany.

On one side there are all these vendors, the Bank of England being one the Swiss National Bank another  On the other side there is one central bank that is accumulating gold reserves, China.  All central banks have gold to protect themselves against possible crises and against possible chaos we have talked about. We talk less about a kind of end of the world where currencies are worth nothing and there remains only one way of trading, with gold.  We are reminded that gold earns you nothing and yet the price of gold continues to rise.
Today, there are three different camps emerging within central banks holding gold:

- Those that want to get rid of their gold stocks in the belief that it is not strategic.  The Bank of France is one of these central banks.

- Those who want to retain their gold stocks, but who do not want to engage in battle by buying or selling gold, for example Germany and Italy.

- And then there are two countries that are going head to head in confrontation with each other.  On the one side there is the United States which has 8000 tons of gold in its reserves but which has decided not to touch it and could increase its stocks if China appeared to want to challenge them on this front.  On the other side, the Chinese Central Bank has passed the milestone of 1000 tons of gold to 1054 and has openly announced that it will continue to buy gold.
Central banks’ gold will probably become a new episode in the gold war which will last for centuries.  The Central Banks’ gold is a theme that must be closely followed.

Marc Fiorentino – CFO of Euroland Finance

Prior to 1860 the Germinal system was adopted to create a monetary community between Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland.  In 1803, the “germinal franc” (named after the month Germinal in the (revolutionary calendar) was established, creating a gold franc containing 290.32 mg of fine gold. From this point, gold and silver-based units circulated interchangeably on the basis of a 1:15.5 ratio between the values of the two metals (Bimetallism). This system continued until 1864, when all silver coins except the 5 franc piece were debased from 90% to 83.5% silver without the weights changing. It, however failed because these countries had to lower the fineness of their coins to curb the disappearance of silver coins.  There was no harmony between the countries.  The Swiss reduced their 2 franc coins and higher value coins to 800 thousandths.  Italy reduced their coins to 835 thousandths.  Due to the need for small coins, France overruled the Legislative Body and tentatively decided to reduce the fineness of 50 and 20 centime coins to 0.835 thousandths (law passed on the 25^th May 1864).

Belgium gold coin from Latin Monatary Union - Leopold II

The story began when Belgium adopted the French franc in 1830. Switzerland harmonized its currency to the franc in 1848 and Italy joined in 1861, both retaining the names of their national currencies but adjusting their values to match the franc. In 1865, this arrangement was formalized as the Latin Monetary Union. Greece and Bulgaria joined in 1867, and a number of states (Spain, Romania, Austria, Finland, Venezuela, Serbia, Montenegro, San Marino and the Vatican) issued currency following the conventions without officially joining the Union.

The basic idea was that each member country would have identical coinage made from gold and silver. While the names of the individual currencies were kept, the weights were identical, so 5 French francs were worth exactly the same as 5 Italian lire and could be used through the Union like national currency (minus a 1.25% handling charge). Each country could mint as many coins as it wanted, there being no risk of inflation due to the intrinsic worth of the metal. The following coins were issued throughout the Union:

Belgium used French gold for all its dealings and therefore made it legal tender in 1861.  The Belgian delegate remarked that because his country was situated between France, England, Holland and Germany it formed the perfect natural link for payments to these States.  Some were using gold and others silver.  The balance of the National Bank was suffering from the aftershocks of these actions which disrupted credit and trade.  Belgium, Italy and Switzerland therefore demanded adoption of the gold standard.  The agreement was signed reducing the fineness of coins worth less than 5 francs to 835 thousands.  The money supply was voluntarily limited.  Individuals could only make maximum payments of 50 francs.  Each country was also forbidden from printing more than 6 francs per capita.  A very simple system that Greece joined in 1868.

However, there were problems that eventually lead to failure. The exchange rate of gold to silver was fixed at 1:15.5, which soon turned out to over value silver significantly. The Union countries tried to unload their silver coins into other countries, so they could profit by turning them into gold. Speculators could buy 16 francs of silver, go to the Mint and strike four 5 franc coins which enabled them to go and buy a beautiful Napoleon. France’s gold was disappearing.

Germany shamelessly profited and benefited greatly from the situation.  German agents came to Paris and Brussels with silver ingots from the recent demonetisation of thalers and transformed them into 5 franc coins which were then converted into notes and then gold.  To put an end to these practices Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland limited (1874) and then soon after suspended (1876) the striking of écus. A larger problem was that there was also a second set of subsidiary silver coins for smaller amounts, issued by each country on its own and not fully convertible elsewhere. Even though these coins had a lower silver content than the primary coins, Union members were by law required to accept up to 100 units of them at face value per transaction, very much a loss-making proposition for the receiving side. Also, while the ending of silver convertibility stopped the minting of new silver coins, outstanding ones remained legal tender. With the advent of World War I and the massive financing strains involved, not to mention war between members of the Union, the system collapsed totally, although it remained in legal fiction until the end of the 1920s.

The United Kingdom entered discussions of  Britain joining the Latin Monetary Union. The proposal involved reducing the amount of gold in one pound sterling by less than 1% to make one pound equivalent to 25 Francs and also decimalising the currency. During the period of the Latin Monetary Union, the United Kingdom was already in a monetary union with territories now commonly known as the “Commonwealth” The gold standard of the British gold sovereign existed in these territories until the outbreak  World War I.

Maurice Hall

Before they even enter a gold mine, travellers are surprised by the logistical ability of the countries in the Amazon region to transport everything that is needed for the miners, from food through to petrol. Extracting about two hundred and fifty tonnes (and probably more) gold per year as chips, fine grains or nuggets, transporting the precious metal and its ingredients, fuel and mercury all represents a highly profitable business whether using dugout canoes, quads or small stunt planes. Attempts to protect the Amazon require the involvement of the region’s countries to implement campaigns, to ban  illegal mining and the use of mercury, but are faced with the complete hypocrisy of these countries’ representatives irrespective of whether it is Brazil, France, Surinam or Venezuela.

Why criticise the business when these same country representatives are using every available means to extend it, by a laissez-faire attitude, by turning a blind eye or even by their active involvement. Not only is the situation in the Amazon rain forest not improving but it is worsening to the point where you have to wonder if even the countries are profiting from its destruction. Part of the problem stems from how the gold is pulled from the ore. Across Brazil, thousands of garimpieros, itinerant gold miners, remove ore by washing a rock face with a high-pressure stream of water. The ore is then broken down in a hammer crusher, and the gold-bearing ore is sluiced with mercury in a process known as amalgamation. The amalgam is filtered manually and then retorted to release the mercury from the gold. The mercury vapor that results is distilled and reused, although a small fraction remains bound to the gold, to be released by the gold dealers during processing. The Brazilian Gold Rush began in 1980 when gold was discovered in Serra Palada in Palá state. Most of the incoming population (at least 250,000) worked for a low wage in very crowded, highly competitive gold mines with very lax environmental practices. Up to 9000 tons of mercury, used in the mining process, has been washed into the region’s rivers, along with huge quantities of sediment. The miners have also polluted the rivers with oil, litter and human sewage. All around the vicinity of the mines, vegetation, animals and settlements have been destroyed.

The profits to be made from providing transport are often as great as those to be made from mining. The town of Maripasoula in French Guyana controls an area the size of Belgium and gains a large part of its revenues from the gold. However, in Brazil, the transporters do not care as they send their goods to the other side of the river Oyapock, on the Guyana side, and wait for their commissions. The same occurs with Surinam, where the gold money ends up in bank vaults or on casino tables. Why bother saying that the gold helps the local population when everyone from Caracas to Cayenne, from Rio to Paramaribo, knows perfectly well that it provides no local benefit and is removed to foreign countries?  The gold leaves whilst the mercury penetrates into the Amazon basin. The alchemy is damaging for the forest and is affecting the human population particularly those who eat mercury contaminated fish.

Includes exerts from the book J’Aurai de l’Or by Olivier Weber. See video clip  curse for gold

When Nixon broke the link between gold and the dollar the world did not stop turning.  The economy rebounded and prices dropped. There was a lot of dissatisfaction about price controls and other things.  However the economic recovery happened and the president was triumphantly re-elected.

Nixon however didn’t put an end to the love affair between gold and the Americans.  Gold had never been in such high demand for decorations or jewellery.  The link between man and this precious metal is seemingly not ready to break.

Gold contacts on computer chip

Gold still plays a central role in our daily lives.  This metal, which was discovered in Ancient times, is a key component of modern technology. It is an unalterable metal and an excellent conductor of electricity.  Each year the electronics industry uses 200 tons of gold. In this highly technological age, if you told an engineer or an electrician that they would have to do without gold they would explain to you that a large part of the IT, audiovisual and many more industries would have to stop, at least until an alternative to gold could be found.

Scientists themselves are looking at gold in a new light.  We know that its medicinal properties have been studied for a long time.  The Chinese are credited as being the first to use gold for medicinal purposes around 2000 BC.  It was not until the late 19th century or early 20th century that chemistry was used to design drugs containing gold.  The German bacteriologist and Nobel Prize winner, Robert Koch for example discovered that TB causing bacteria could be killed using a mixture of gold, aurous cyanide.

Pure gold inner ear insert

Before antibiotics were discovered, gold based drugs were an important weapon against disease.  Compounds containing gold are still used to treat certain forms of rheumatoid arthritis.  With current laboratory research, technicians are interested in manufacturing new soluble gold compounds to treat viral infections but there are also some soluble forms which are capable of killing cancerous cells which we have been able to test in recent years.  These products are not yet at the clinical experimentation stage and there is still a lot of work to be carried out on the chemistry of gold which is an active research area.  However, gold possesses a high degree of resistance to bacterial colonisation and because of this it is the material of choice for implants that are at risk of infection.

Further studies are underway to prepare for the next gold rush.  But this time, in space.  Rocks more than 4.5 billion years old, contain ten times the concentration of gold that can found in any mineral on earth and there are millions of rocks like that in space, in what are known as near earth asteroid belts and in the main asteroid belt.  For Jim Benson, there must be a way of collecting this extraterrestrial gold: “We could envisage launching a space rocket to one of these near earth asteroids between Earth and Mars and landing smoothly on it.  The first time we would certainly be able to take a sample and analyse it.  But on the next mission we might be able to bring back some of the rock or even use a space tug to bring a relatively small near earth metallic asteroid into the earth’s orbit where we could process it at a lower cost.  An incredible challenge but it will be possible not too far into the future.  Fortunes and empires could be built and I think for many generations to come.  Space offers infinite resources with no boundaries.”

If you believe Benson, one single asteroid could produce 80000 billion dollars worth of gold.  But like King Midas, who turned everything he touched to gold, when there is a considerable amount of gold to be had, the magic doesn’t work anymore, it’s finished, done.  And yet all throughout history the fascination in gold has never waned.  When the Romans found gold in Spain or when the Spanish carried out operations in Peru, all the gold that was discovered was used.  The discoveries of the 19th Century brought production levels to unimaginable levels, but gold has not lost its value.  We always want more.  The obsession with gold has been constant since the dawn of time.

Gold has pushed men and women to carry out the most extreme acts, of cruelty, bravery or beauty.  For thousands and thousands of years, owning gold has been of the utmost importance to become not only rich but also powerful.  Gold has survived all civilisations.  It was a central part of religion and the arts.  The economy of nations relied on gold, for better or for worse.  If one day we discretely gathered up all the gold of the USA, UK, Germany and France and we threw it into the sea, the economy would not stop.  Life would continue but in hard times we turn to gold.  Gold is something special.  It is not a product manufactured by man but by nature which is why we have confidence in it.  It is your insurance for a rainy day.  Gold is capable of surviving disasters.  Indestructible and universal, it has incomparable power.

Don’t be put off by last weeks sell off in gold as it was not physical gold that was sold but paper gold.  No one sold their sovereigns, eagles ,napoleons, kuggerands.  Nor did the Chinese, Indian or Russians sell gold from their national vaults. Do not think we are about to experience a reversal in value of gold.  World output of gold has declined by 1 million ounces annually since 2001.

All indications are that we should expect an impending gold shortage. Total ETF holdings of the yellow metal now exceed total world production. South Africa suffered its steepest decline in gold production since 1901, falling 14%, to a mere 232 tons. It now ranks only third in global production of the yellow metal, after China and the US.

Here’s a chart that goes back over 30 years. It’s clear that gold output from South Africa is steadily falling and the rest of the world has not yet taken up the slack.
South African mines are, overall, getting so deep, hot and dangerous that they are on the edge of a major rapid decline in gold output. Rising production costs have driven the global breakeven cost of new gold production up to $500 an ounce. It takes a lot of labor, fuel, and heavy machinery to get gold out of the ground, and none of these are getting any cheaper.

Political risks are heating up. In the meantime, the financial crisis has driven a surge to the safety  of physical gold pushing demand for gold bars and coins to all time highs. The big gold players China, India and Russia are building their reserves so that they can meet international commitments with gold as they are carefully moving away from the waning USD, the fallback international currency.

Last year, the US Treasury ran out of blanks for one ounce $50 American Gold Eagle coins and major mints in Europe reported dramatic increases in production in the latter half of 2009. This shows that American citizens are waking up to the need to own some gold and when they are fully awake it will drive a  huge increase in demand. Some  European countries and notably the French, are fully aware of the power of gold and in particular gold coins, that hedged currency devaluations and political turmoil throughout  the 20th century. Consequently they continue to put their faith in gold to hedge financial instability in the 21st.  Competitive devaluations by most central banks mean that currencies are not performing as the hedge that many had hoped. It all has the makings of serious gold shortage for the future. The current downturn has to be just a blip in the long term bull market.

Now is the time to carefully watch the spot price as it is possible that gold may fall as low as $1030  and that will be time to buy, as it is predicted that we could be seeing $1500 the fourth quarter as demand increases.

The gold was stored in large compartments about ten feet wide, three meters high and six meters deep.  The stacks of gold bricks filled the space to the ceiling, each that brick is approximately the size of three bars of chocolate. They weigh a dozen pounds each and were worth in those days, fourteen thousand dollars. It was 1940, six years after  gold was officially thirty-five dollars per ounce. Even at this value the pile was worth  up $ 2 billion, a sum sufficient at that time to  buy the total output of goods and services of the United States for four days. It was, however, in a small secure volume, lying in five floor’s under the  traffic of the streets of New York. The contemplation of  more than one hundred miles of gold ingots stacked to the ceiling and under the bright lights was an experience both chilling and unforgettable.

This gold was not owned by the  United States. It belonged to France, England, Switzerland and many other countries. For a long time, these countries kept some of their official holdings of gold in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, both for reasons of safety and convenience. Each bar was recorded and  bore the stamp of its owner and any other identifying mark. This process of marking is called “earmarking,” a phrase which undoubtedly refers back to the method  used to indicate membership of animal herds. This marking avoided each nation the  worry and expenses associated with the transport of gold from one country to another (especially if it had to cross an ocean), when for one reason or another, gold changed owner. For example, if England had to pay gold to France, an employee of the Federal Reserve just took a cart to the compartment assigned to  England, loaded the appropriate ingots and transported them to the  French compartment, changed the signs on gold bullion and noted the change in a book.

I landed a job in the documentation department of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the heart of the financial district. One day, as a favor, my boss took me to see the gold that was stored in the sanitized vaults of the bank, five floors underground. They were dug deep into the rock to deter burglars building an access tunnel. We entered the secured area by heavy cylindrical stainless steel doors, waterproof and airtight, which unlock automatically at nine o’clock in the morning and lock automatically at five o’clock in the evening. A basket was placed inside, just after entry, with fresh sandwiches, renewed daily, for any unlucky employees who sometimes found themselves locked in, when the doors automatically locked at the end of the day. A little further, there was a scale for weighing gold. It was so sensitive that a small speck would set it in motion. With gold, even dust counts.

These movements of a few meters from one compartment to another, often corresponded to significant changes in the distribution of wealth between countries, with profound impact on the level of living. However, citizens of each country never saw the gold of their governments. If all this gold, for example, had been submerged in the Hudson and we have continued to keep books of accounts the same way as before, the economic and financial implications for each nation would have been exactly the same and just as profound as when gold was physically moved from one compartment to another.

From the book The Power of Gold by Peter L. Bernstein

See our other article on “wealth is static“

The Napoleon to the French is what the Sovereign is to the British, their most revered coin and this “national” coin would be  each countries prime choice  for investment.  Both coins share the same principal of good design, quality minting and 22 carat gold. The Marianne Cockerel ( on reverse ) illustrated here is French coin  emblematic of a time when golden Franks shone all over Europe. The original design was by Jean-Clement Chaplain and is used on both the obverse and reverse. Because of the quantity produced they are traded as bullion coins and demand little premium except in times of crisis

There is a huge difference between the two countries in our attitudes towards gold and gold coins and this is historic. In short the French are gold hoarders and the British are not. French citizens hold approximately 10 times the amount of gold that is in the UK national reserve. Due to the uncertainty and trauma of war and occupation over the last 100 years , the French transferred a proportion of their wealth into a tangible asset, mainly gold Napoleons. Conversely the British have never suffered in this way so had no need for gold insurance and in fact were actively discouraged by the government making it difficult for UK citizens to own gold coins.

Why is this of any interest to someone in the UK who may want to invest in gold coins?. The French will always turn to gold as insurance to protect their wealth and this creates issues of supply and demand causing the premium on the Napoleon 20 FRF and the half Napoleon 10 FRF  to rise in times of crisis.  During October 2008 when financial panic was dominant in the world the premium differential ( the difference between the normal premium and the highest sell price) on the half Napoleon rose to over 80% as the French sought refuge in gold. There is a similar history with the Napoleon during the panic in the eighties the premium on the Napoleon ran to 100% and in October 2008 it rose to 48% for a short time; but in the table below we use the regular premium in that period.   In the UK a premium rise on Sovereigns in time of crisis is far more conservative. It follows that buying Napoleons at a time of normal premium and holding for a time when there is unrest be it political or financial would generate a very good ROI.

The table shows the premium that coins attracted at the hight of the crisis in October 2008. Remarkably some coins can be bought at very little or even negative premium in certain times and there is then the potential of a premium rise.  Coins that are in short supply, are difficult to mint and or are minted in small numbers generally attract a higher basic premium

A very attractive mechanisms is  to buy the Napoleons and store them in secure third party vaults in France or Switzerland where they are fully insured, you have an independent certificate of ownership and they are in your control.  Even better is to belong to a community that allows you store your investment in a vault; but at the same time allowing you to buy and sell amongst  that community, without moving the coins, thus simplifying the whole process and removing any dealer cuts.

Maurice Hall

Recently gold has taken a significant correction from a high of $1,226 an ounce it fell to $1,075 – about 12% in two weeks. It fell by more than $50 in one day the greatest fall ever.  Should we be jittery that this is the end of the dramatic rises we have seen so far in the 21^st century or is it a correction that will recover and rise above the high recorded in December 2009?

Recent History

As gold has been with us for 6 millenniums , recent history could be described as very recent but lets stick to the last 30 years, Golds previous high, where it rose to $850 per troy oz.  in 1980 was subsequent to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. If the thought of gold rising to over $1200  made people nervous it is put into perspective by remembering that by taking inflation into consideration, the $850 in 1980 is around $2500 today so the price has to more than double to reach the previous high. In 1980 gold was in a bull market with only a few currencies. Now the bull markets contain all major currency and the new giants of India and China.

Historic correction pattern – I would suggest that the current correction follows a historic pattern as the chart below taken over the last 10 years shows.  The December  correction from high to low was 12% that has now almost halved with the current price of $1140 to 7%.  Below the chart shows four quite brutal corrections ranging from 10 to 22% from the highs to lows followed by a period of consolidation and subsequent rises usually for around 9 months .

Historic dips and recoveries are a repeated pattern (rise 6-9 months, heavy correction. Consolidation before upward trend

Current gold correction should ease and rise to + $1400 by mid year

Mechanisms for Investing

Paper Gold – 95% of the worlds gold business is unallocated in which you do not physically own your gold.

• Mining Shares – no different than speculating on the stock market
• Futures – is a way to trade gold at an amount and price decided today for a delivery at a time in the future. You do not have to pay the full amount, but the dealers margin usually anything up to 20%  and you do not own the gold. This is pure short term speculation and subject to market moves and if you do know what you are doing your investment will evaporate
• Gold backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities designed  to accurately track the gold price.  Under an ETF a trust owns the gold, and you are a beneficiary of a debt owed by the trust and backed by its gold. This form of investment is better than a future but  probably more appropriate for investment institutions. If there was a panic and gold ETF investors try to take delivery of gold in exchange for their paper shares, gold funds may find it difficult to meet that demand.
• Gold Certificates – are normally unallocated gold with an option to convert to allocated but at a high cost. An investor in unallocated gold does not own that gold and is subject o the insolvencies of the vendor
• Bank Gold – this is always unallocated in effect you become a bank creditor and do not own the gold so any problems with the bank and your investment is at risk or total loss

Physical Gold

• Jewellery – Not an investment mechanism
• Large Bullion Bars - The main argument is that you can buy and sell your gold for very little premium and the rising gold price is great for ROI,  at the same time you hold a tangible asset. Bullion is not subject to VAT but is subject to Capital Gains.  The main disadvantage is that a large bar has a large value to initially purchase, your asset is not mobile and has moderate liquidity. If you own a 1 kilo bar it is not easy to sell off 100 or 200 grams
• Small Bars – Similar to Large bars but require a greater premium to purchase but do not require such a large initial outlay.
• Bullion Coins – e.g. krugerrands.  These are relatively new coins that are purchased for the value of their gold content and are of defined weights, they are in effect the same as small bullion with a small premium over the same value of gold in a bullion bar. Many bullion coins are not particularly attractive so is no different from bullion and are not subject to VAT but are subject to Capital Gains Tax unless they are legal tender.
• Semi-Numismatic – Sovereigns, Napoleons etc.  These are beautiful coins that have aesthetic, historic value.  Due to supply and demand they attract a premium ( value over and above the gold value) and depending where they are bought and their condition, the premium varies. The quality of the coin is an essential aspect, those which are in poor condition ( unless extremely rare), are only worth their gold value less dealers cut and are melted down. Sovereigns which are legal tender are VAT free and also free of Capital Gains Tax. Beware of Uncirculated and Proof coins as though undoubtedly high quality the premium is such that for a proof coin you pay double the gold value and that could never be recovered on resale.
• Numismatic – collectors coins that attract high premiums due to their collectability which is subjective in the collectors eyes and can only be re sold if wanted. Rare Sovereigns can be numismatic and may be VAT free if the premium is less than 180%.

Type of Investor

• Speculator – someone who is looking for short term gains and would normally use one of the gold instruments rather than physical gold.
• Investor – Again may be looking at the longer term gold instruments but may well want to take advantage of the rise in the gold price by owning physical gold
• Saver – Will want to own physical gold, take advantage of any upturn but whose prime purpose is to insure their wealth for the future

Reasons for investing Physical Gold

• Tangible Asset - Gold cannot  be printed like money. Governments worldwide are debasing their currencies as they print money.  It’s the oldest form of wealth in the world and does not rely on any third party promises. Gold is a “currency”
• Limited Supply – Less than 2000 tonnes per year Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.
• Demand greater than supply –  A World Gold Report said that investor activity had picked up strongly in the 4^th quarter of 2009. An important part of this demand is long-term in nature, likely driven by positive sentiment toward gold’s supply and demand fundamentals and the corresponding price outlook.
• Diversification – Portfolio protection -Most experts  agree that investors should be diversifying between 5-10% of their portfolio into gold
• Insurance What is the purpose of insurance? Of course, it is to protect you against the unknown and the unexpected. You can’t risk not having it in your life, even if you never have to use it. Gold is an insurance policy just like on your car or your home. Given the current financial uncertainty are you comfortable with owning gold through a paper deed, especially if there is no formal audit procedure to verify your share. The primary and most obvious advantage to owning physical gold over paper gold is that it’s yours unequivocally. Gold and particularly recognized gold coin is universally accepted as money anywhere in the world, regardless of culture, language or local currency and can be convert it to goods and services.

Even in a relatively stable environment but with turmoil in the stock market gold has performed very well. It can be said that gold performs well in bad conditions but stocks and shares performance rises in good times. We are now in a bad time with economies struggling to rise out of depression so gold is very attractive and safe form of investment.  According to a recent article in the Sunday times gold was the only investment that beat inflation over the last 10 years. One of the best ways to beat inflation is to own real assets

Recommendations

Gold Coins – Modern bullion coins such as Krugerrands represent good value as they can be purchased at only a little more premium or even similar to small bars; but we believe that older semi –numismatic coins such as Sovereigns, Swiss Francs, French Napoleons, American Eagles etc.  are a better buy. In the UK the coin of choice will always be the Sovereign. For small quantities these coins will cost more than bullion coins but in larger quantities the if they can be bought at 2-3%  above the premium on Krugerrands, they are the best buy.

In times of crisis when the demand increases the premium will rise under the law of supply and demand, thus on top of the gold value you may be able to sell at a higher premium.  The Sovereign is a beautiful coin, so has aesthetic and historic value, insures your wealth and has a liquidity that is recognised through world

Summary

• Gold is the best way to protect your wealth
• Gold should account for 10% of diversified portfolio
• Every one should hold some gold coins to hedge against systemic failure

Maurice Hall

There is no better time than now to invest in gold coin. Historically UK citizens have never been hoarders of gold unlike many other countries in the EU and the rest of the world as we have never suffered the trauma of invading armies, currency crash or totally destroyed economies. In countries where this has happened or threatened, people have turned to gold to protect their wealth knowing that no matter what happened they can exchange their gold coins for essential goods. E.g.  French citizens personally hold 10 times the value of gold that is currently held in the UK gold reserve. We also to not inherently have the “survivalist culture” that exist in the USA where apart from arms, food and shelter, it is seen as essential to own tangible liquid assets such as gold eagles.

Until this century the UK government had discouraged the owning of gold by making it difficult. Until 1971 it was illegal to buy more than four gold coins without a collectors license and then in 1973, VAT was applied to gold coins, which dampened any new found enthusiasm. In common with the EU, the UK removed VAT  from investment gold including  specific coins in 2000.

We have seen a steady increase in the gold price this century until the all time high of $1227 in Dec 2009  after which it dropped rapidly by more than 10%. Is this a concern?. Any downturn is bound to incline towards nervousness; but this is purely a correction as has been exhibited over the last ten years, where there have been savage corrections, followed by periods of consolidation for a few months then the upward trend continues.  Also when gold reached is last all time high in 1980 of $850, the equivalent with inflation is $2200 today.  Experts agree that the gold price still has a long way to go.

The demand for gold coins rose sharply in 2009. This was a result of investors hedging against financial failure or diversifying portfolios into gold as there is a continuing lack of confidence as economies struggle to pull out of the worst recession in most peoples living memory. They also attract a premium over the value of gold which is dependant on supply and demand and currently world mints cannot keep up with demand. The Royal Mint quadrupled production in the last quarter of 2009 and we have seen increased production in Germany, Austria and US where there was a shortage such that “Gold Eagles” were on allocated supply

It is not just panicky individuals but professional investment advisors and sophisticated traders who are purchasing 50 or more coins at a time.

Gold coins are a tangible asset that can quickly and easily be realized and many such as Gold Sovereigns have liquidity that is recognized world wide. However, the sophisticated investor should view gold coins as an insurance policy within a diversified portfolio

Experts agree that somewhere between 5-10% of an investment portfolio should be diversified into gold.

Now in the UK we now have the best environment in the world for owning gold coins and particularly gold coins of legal currency, like Sovereigns as they are now VAT free and provided they were minted after 1817, free from Capital Gains Tax.  Plus you will own beautiful coins that have historic and aesthetic value to insure your wealth and provide a tangible asset that has world wide liquidity.

Maurice Hall

Sovereigns of England and France were to thought to have  the God given power of   healing by touch and they  practised this power to cure sufferers of Scrofula an unsightly tuberculosis commonly known as the “King’s Evil”.In France it was called the “Mal De Roi” . The ceremony and cure was a “laying of  hands ” by the monarch and the touching piece was the talisman of the monarch healing power.

Gold Angel

This developed into crossing the sore of the sick person with a Gold Angel, which was a currency piece that portrayed the Archangel Michael slaying the dragon. This was good overcoming evil and the gold itself stood for purity.  The Angel which became known as a « touching piece » was then worn around the neck until cured. It was believed if the touching piece was removed the disease would return. The sovereigns of the House of Stuart also used the ceremony to help bolster the belief in the ‘divine right of kings’ . The practice peaked with Charles II touching over 100,000 people; but it was discovered that a good number of people were not sick but were attracted by the gold. It was a considerable drain on Royal Coffers.

Maurice Hall

Premium

Sovereign Price= Premium + Price of Gold

In the United Kingdom, the current premium is dependant on source, quantity, supply and demand and currently can range from 5% to over 40% depending on source and condition.  But what is this premium for gold coins?

The premium is the difference between the current gold value contained in the coin and the price paid for the coin and is usually expressed as a percentage. The price and premium depend on market factors at the time and are constantly changing.

e.g. a Sovereign may contain gold with a value of £160 but be worth £199 and for a newly minted proof coin £299 . The difference between these two figures, expressed as a percentage, is the premium thus a the proof coin is sold at approximately 46% premium

The premium for a coin is linked to several criteria:

· production: The smaller the coins and the harder they are to produce, the more chance there is that they will have a high premium, this principle that explains why the smaller half sovereign have a higher premium .  The quality of a proof coin usually demands a higher premium

· speculation: the premium changes to reflect supply and demand. In a period where more coins are being sold than are being bought, the premium is zero or slightly negative (in this situation, coins of moderate quality are often melted down). When there is high demand or excess speculation, the premium resulting from this speculation climbs sharply. The premium is therefore a very good indicator of the balance between supply and demand, the latter’s potential and also what actions should be taken. A negative, zero or slightly positive premium should stimulate purchases whilst a high premium of should lead to selling.

· conservation: a quality coin that has no trace of being handled will retain all its premium. Poor conservation conditions (contact with fingers, scratches, wearing…) results in a reduction of 4 – 10% and can lead to a negative premium. When this happens the coins are melted down and sold for the price of their precious metal

· collectors: some coins are rarer due to them being minted in small numbers or because they have special characteristics related to numismatic rarity criteria. In certain years where very few coins were minted a sovereign can cost several thousand pounds depending on its rarity and its condition. This value is therefore completely unrelated to the value of the coin’s gold content.

· geographical location: gold coins are not equally popular in every country and generally speaking coins that were the currency of a country are more popular in that country e.g.: Napoleons are very popular in France but are much less well known in China or the USA and people there prefer to buy local coins the exception is the Sovereign which is the most popular in the UK but also has an international reputation.

Premium differential: This the differential between the basic (normal ) premium and the highest sale price usually in times of crisis where there is great demand.

Below is some translated correspondence that occurred with our partner in France:

LORetLARGENT.info editor and a reader about the premium:

Xavier (blog reader): Why do you consider that the ingot is “banal”? Although its premium is not high, or even zero, isn’t this the simplest means of buying investment gold at its market price? When the price goes up (very high, I hope), the deal becomes interesting. A coin currently has a high premium so is interesting if you want to sell but not necessarily if you want to buy…

LORetLARGENT.info: If you want to invest 2,000 Euros, don’t buy an ingot. Wait until the premium for Napoleons drops below 5% to develop your position.
The premium has a real lever effect. Consider the cases of buying, in a few months, an ingot or the same value of 20 FRF Napoleons with a premium of zero. If you sell when you need your capital (don’t forget that gold is an insurance against the crisis but not against life’s challenges – in this latter case, other investments are better), you will have at least 20% more for equal weights with your coins (the premium) without considering the greater ease of selling them.
In summary, starting from the principle that gold coins are an anti-crisis investment, an insurance where you get back what you pay (normally insurance is lost money), you have to take account of the concept of the premium from the start, especially the premium differential. You must buy gold coins with the greatest potential growth from their base premium (the average premium outside of crisis periods) and the highest premium recorded during a crisis. There is a differential of 5% for an ingot but 76% for a half Napoleon. Consider what this means for our investment of 2,000 Euros when we come to sell. Obviously, the coins must be in excellent condition. (Above all, avoid buying via generalist on-line auctions where about 1/3 of the coins are good for the smelter even if the photos are flattering).
Bear in mind that the only thing that should determine your gold purchase (coins or other) is its resale (when and how). Usually, you should do it quickly and at the best price. The ingot is not a winner in this type of competition…

Xavier: (…) Can the premium fall as the value of gold increases or if we see, as at present, an explosion in the demand all over the world, especially in France?

LORetLARGENT.info: Trying to compare the changes in the price of gold with the premium on a Napoleon is like trying to compare the ethics of American and English bankers with those of French households. My proposition is a bit exaggerated but it is a good reflection of the fact that the criteria leading to an increase in the price of gold are not the same as those determining the premium on a Napoleon. To confirm this, look at the sharp rise in the price of gold in March 2008 and the dead calm for the premium during the same period. In March, the French only had a vague idea that a crisis was coming and continued to sell Napoleons until September. You should be aware that our own bankers were using every conceivable method to try and sell gold coins to us in January 2008 whilst they had no difficulty in offering us LYXOR GOLD. In summary, we are talking about the same precious metal but certainly not the same investment instrument and the premium is an excellent indicator of the difference between the price of gold on the markets, linked mainly to changes in the price of oil and the US Dollar, and the value of gold coins sold in France, which is more linked to the moral of small investors with tangible values such as the readers of this blog.

Xavier: OK, I accept your arguments, which are logical. It’s a question of investment instruments and we can consider that the moral of small investors has not yet bottomed out whilst the price of gold already reflects the decline forecast by the major speculators (or the beginning of the end of the manipulations on COMEX). The future will give us the answer.

Could eggs be a useful currency?

Let’s imagine it’s 2018. The western world has gone through years of deflation then the flame returns as massive inflation repeating what happened in Germany in 1923.

John was still selling luxury yachts on the Côte d’Azur in 2008. Following the financial crash and the economic crisis that followed it, he now rears a few chickens on a farm on the outskirts of a small town in the Auvergne. In this article, he talks to us about his most recent discovery in a world where every day brings its new rules. He explains to us the characteristics of a good currency.

I arrive in the village square which is already full of people and a lay out my farm produce at my feet: pairs of chickens with their feet tied together and baskets of pats of butter wrapped in leaves, lying on a base of fresh and smooth eggs. I have some concerns because the Euros, which we usually use in the country, they have been refused by everyone since the State started issuing them willy-nilly. The screens where you enter the amount for a credit card transaction are no longer big enough to display the amounts that have to be paid for our everyday requirements. We are now a country without currency. What’s going to happen?

I think I will get the old Sovereigns out from their hiding place behind the bookcase, tomorrow…